We can admit it. We were wrong.
Well, mostly wrong. When The Athletic first asked its NHL staff for its bold predictions, it was a different time. One week into the season, we heard about everything from blockbuster trades to breakout players and more.
Now, with less than three weeks of the regular season remaining, some are holding up well, while others look to have been a bit too bold.
This week, our staff revisited its 2025-26 NHL season bold predictions. Which ones get a pass, fail or incomplete?
FailPhiladelphia Flyers
They will trade for Quinn Hughes
This is at least half-right, isn’t it? Hughes was indeed traded as Vancouver quickly plummeted in the standings, but it just wasn’t to the Flyers. While the Flyers were interested, the Canucks had no interest in dealing him to Philadelphia to reunite with Rick Tocchet, per multiple Flyers team sources, and it’s unlikely they would have been able to put a package together that was as strong as Minnesota’s, anyway. — Kevin Kurz
Winnipeg Jets
Jonathan Toews will play exactly 57 regular-season games
Forget about load management; Toews is on pace to play in all 82 Jets games. This prediction was always a shot in the dark — 57 GP is too specific to hit — but my idea that Winnipeg might ease Toews into his role, sparing him back-to-backs, and otherwise not immediately treat him as its second-line center was flat-out wrong. The Jets started dropping Toews’ workload late in the season, but he’s still a second-line player in terms of his average TOI for the year. — Murat Ates
Detroit Red Wings
Lucas Raymond will hit 90 points
Raymond was tracking toward 90 late into January, but he’s fallen off the pace since, and would need a Nikita Kucherov-like finish to hit that mark. Considering he appears to be playing hurt — missing practice for maintenance — that looks unlikely. But the Red Wings will be much less worried about the round number and more focused on whether he can help them find a way into the playoffs. He’s shown a penchant for big goals in the past, and Detroit will need some over the season’s final weeks. — Max Bultman
Ottawa Senators
Jake Sanderson will win the Norris Trophy
Sanderson definitely took steps forward as his team’s No. 1 defenseman, soaking up increased ice time and playing at a pace that should’ve resulted in career-best numbers while being elite at both ends. Sanderson was even on Team USA’s gold-medal-winning team. Sanderson being injured recently hurts his Norris campaign. But he was already in tough with Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Zach Werenski, Evan Bouchard, Rasmus Dahlin and more making significant cases for the Norris. Maybe next year. — Julian McKenzie
Carolina Hurricanes
Alexander Nikishin will win the Calder Trophy
Nikishin has an outside shot of being a finalist for the Calder Trophy and should make the All-Rookie team, but no one is surpassing emerging Islanders star Matthew Schaefer as this season’s top rookie. Still, Nikishin has had a record-breaking campaign, scoring the most goals (10) by a rookie defenseman in franchise history while establishing himself as a physical force on Carolina’s blue line. — Cory Lavalette
Sam Rinzel didn’t have the year many thought he could have. (Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
Chicago Blackhawks
Sam Rinzel will win the Calder Trophy
Rinzel didn’t come close to having that type of season. While he started the season with high expectations after a strong finish last season, he couldn’t maintain that consistency going through his first full pro year. His game and confidence took a hit, and eventually, he was sent to the AHL for a stint. He’s back in the NHL and has been regaining his form. But overall, it wasn’t the year many thought he could have as a potential top-pairing defenseman and power-play quarterback. — Scott Powers
Vancouver Canucks
Filip Chytil will be the team’s second most valuable forward this season
This was looking good a week into the season, but fell apart when Chytil sustained a concussion on a Tom Wilson hit. Then, after returning to the lineup and not looking like himself for a brief stint ahead of the Olympic break, Chytil sustained a fractured orbital bone on a freak practice accident. This was an L for us. — Thomas Drance
Seattle Kraken
Shane Wright will break out
Wright hasn’t built on his 44-point 2024-25 campaign. His usage has been flat, as new Kraken coach Lane Lambert has instead increased Chandler Stephenson’s role (and defensive responsibility), and Wright’s production has trended down. Meanwhile, there have been whispers that he’s dissatisfied with his role and would welcome a change of scenery. This is a swing and a miss from me on the Wright breakout. — Thomas Drance
Toronto Maple Leafs
Matthew Knies will lead the NHL in short-handed goals
Woof. Bold apparently equals bad. Not only is Knies not going to lead the NHL in short-handed goals, but he also just scored his first short-handed goal of the season (and his career) this week! What’s gone wrong? One part is opportunity: Knies has only been a secondary contributor on the Leafs penalty kill this season, particularly before the trade deadline. We also know that Knies played through injury this season. I still see a future where he can become a menace on the penalty kill. — Jonas Siegel
Vegas Golden Knights
Jack Eichel will score the most goals in franchise history
This was a total whiff. With the addition of Mitch Marner, I thought Eichel would be on the receiving end of more passes. Instead, William Karlsson missed nearly the entire season, Marner was bumped to the center position, away from the top line, and Eichel spent the vast majority of his time as a passer. He doesn’t have a single goal on the power play for the first time in his 11 NHL seasons, and has his fewest goals as a Golden Knight. — Jesse Granger
Florida Panthers
They will make a blockbuster trade to replace Aleksander Barkov
After three consecutive trips to the final and two straight Cup titles, all of that hockey finally caught up with the Panthers. Not only were they not able to attempt to replace Barkov using that cap space, but they’re also going to miss the playoffs, with his absence a big reason why. Expect Florida to reload in the offseason — including possibly with a high pick — and try to take another run at things next year. — James Mirtle
Minnesota Wild
Matt Boldy will rack up 50 goals and 50 assists
Boldy has tailed off a bit, but Joe Smith was close. Boldy has 38 goals and 38 assists in 69 games — a pace of 45.2 goals and 45.2 assists over an 82-game season. He missed four games, though, so unless he catches fire, it ain’t happening. Still, what a year for Boldy, who blossomed into a star and won gold at the Olympics. Still, I knew I should have done the submission, not Joe. I told Joe in October, “The Wild will trade for Quinn Hughes,” but he ignored me. — Michael Russo
Dallas Stars
Thomas Harley will be a Norris Trophy finalist
Harley reached a new tier of stardom last year during Miro Heiskanen’s injury absence, but has taken a small step back this season. His production has dropped off, and he’s been basically an even player at five-on-five. He’s still a good player, of course, but he certainly hasn’t bullied his way into the Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Zach Werenski, Matthew Schaefer conversation. Not yet, at least. — Mark Lazerus
Buffalo Sabres
Zach Benson will break out with 60 points
Entering play Friday, Benson is playing at roughly a 52-point pace, but he’s missed 17 games this season due to injuries. He has 10 goals and 25 assists, but is also plus-25, and the Sabres have 53 percent of the expected goals during his five-on-five minutes. He continues to make a major impact, even if the point production hasn’t been there. He’s still only 20, and the underlying metrics suggest a surge in points is coming. — Matthew Fairburn
Los Angeles Kings
Brandt Clarke will break out with 50 points
Clarke has 38 points in his 72 games. I can’t see him getting 12 more in the remaining 10 contests. But that’s not his fault. The 23-year-old has been one of the few bright lights for the Kings, who’ve been slow to understand he is their best defenseman. He didn’t get a steady dose of 20-plus minutes until January and is finally quarterbacking their top power-play unit. He can play NHL-level defense. Don’t blame me for getting this wrong. — Eric Stephens
Dylan Guenther has had a terrific year. (Rob Gray / Imagn Images)
Utah Mammoth
Dylan Guenther will finish top five in the league for goals
Guenther is tied for ninth in league goal scoring and is on pace to hit 42, so I wasn’t off by much, but he’s four goals back of a top-five finish, which seems insurmountable this late in the season. The 22-year-old sniper has still had a terrific year, especially when you consider how much time his usual center, Logan Cooley, missed with injury. — Harman Dayal
IncompleteCalgary Flames
Matthew Coronato will lead the team in goals
With 16 goals, Coronato is one goal off the team lead held by Blake Coleman and Morgan Frost, and is tied with two other teammates. He may fall short of his 24-goal output last year, but he could still conceivably end the season as Calgary’s goals leader. Even if fans will patiently wait for Coronato to take a step forward, they can’t be too upset to see Coronato near the top of the team’s goal-scoring leaders. — Julian McKenzie
St. Louis Blues
They will give up the fewest six-on-five goals in the NHL
This prediction was made in the aftermath of the Blues’ Game 7 collapse against Winnipeg last season, when they allowed two six-on-five goals in the final two minutes of regulation and fell 4-3 in double OT. They allowed 15 six-on-five goals in 2024-25, including the playoffs, which was the most in the NHL. They haven’t allowed the fewest six-on-five goals this season (five, tied for the 11th-fewest through Thursday), but they have been better. — Jeremy Rutherford
New Jersey Devils
Arseny Gritsyuk will finish in the top five of Calder Trophy voting
Gritsyuk probably won’t be top five in Calder Trophy voting, but he likely will receive some down-ballot votes. He’s had a strong rookie season; his 31 points rank ninth in the NHL among rookies. He’s been a promising part of an otherwise disappointing season. He’s also 12th among rookies with 13 goals. — Peter Baugh
San Jose Sharks
They will re-sign John Klingberg
The Sharks haven’t determined Klingberg’s fate. The 33-year-old has evolved into a serviceable right-handed puck mover, though the swings in his play this season have bordered on the dramatic. He’s a pending UFA, but San Jose’s patchwork blue line is still in need of a serious upgrade. The better play is to move on, which seems likely. — Eric Stephens
Tampa Bay Lightning
They will go to the Stanley Cup Final
The Lightning still have to get through the regular season and three playoff rounds to live up to this bold prediction … but the odds are in their favor. According to Dom’s model, Tampa Bay has the best chance of reaching the Stanley Cup Final (49 percent) and a league-high 32 percent chance to win it all. There can always be upsets in the chaos of the NHL playoffs, but this team looks like a real contender to do some damage this spring. — Shayna Goldman
New York Islanders
Mathew Barzal will put up 90 points
If only I had gone for something actually bold, such as Matthew Schaefer emerging as one of the greatest 18-year-olds of all time. Who would have thought! Instead, the bet was on Barzal, who probably won’t hit the 90-point mark. He has 65 points in 72 games, which puts him on pace for 73 points. Sure, he could go on a tear down the stretch to better the Isles’ playoff chances, but 25 points is a lot to ask for in just nine games. — Shayna Goldman
Washington Capitals
Tom Wilson will lead the team in goals
This was bolder than you might think; other than in 2016-17, when Alex Ovechkin and T.J. Oshie each had 33 goals, the last non-Ovechkin player to lead the Capitals was Robert Lang in 2003-04. I was feeling pretty good about it Wednesday afternoon — shortly before Ovechkin put up a hat trick against Utah, giving him 29 goals and a four-goal lead over Wilson. It’ll be an uphill battle. — Sean Gentille
PassNashville Predators
Andrew Brunette will still be the team’s coach at the end of the season
Barry Trotz was indeed patient with Brunette, probably more so than many general managers in this league would have been given the team’s dreadful start. Brunette has again hung in and turned around the Preds’ season, as he did two years ago. He deserves credit for that. And consideration from whoever ends up succeeding Trotz in the offseason. — Joe Rexrode
Colorado Avalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood will win the William M. Jennings Trophy
Hey, I nailed one! The Avalanche have allowed 19 fewer goals than the next-closest team (Dallas). The combination of Wedgewood and Blackwood has been one of the most dominant tandems in the NHL, which isn’t how most viewed it entering the season. The team in front of the duo has obviously played a big role, but the goalies have been sensational, especially Wedgewood. If they hold on, it will be only the second time Colorado has won the Jennings (Patrick Roy in 2002). — Jesse Granger
Montreal Canadiens
Juraj Slafkovský will score 30 goals
Slafkovský scored his 28th goal of the season this week, so barring a massive drought over the Canadiens’ final 11 games or an injury, he should clear this bar quite easily. And with the way he’s been driving play and becoming one of the more lethal power-play weapons in the league this season, Slafkovský might be setting his new floor as opposed to hitting a ceiling. — Arpon Basu
Columbus Blue Jackets
Jet Greaves will take off
I haven’t danced like this in years! I didn’t just pass, I earned an A+ for one of the few times in my life. Greaves has, in fact, “taken off” this season, taking the No. 1 job away from Elvis Merzlikins (45 starts vs. 27) and thriving in his first full NHL season. Among goalies with at least 25 games, Greaves is 14th in wins (24), 11th in save percentage (.910), and, according to MoneyPuck, seventh in goals saved above expected (+17.4). Yep, he’s one of the best stories in the league this season. — Aaron Portzline
Jeremy Swayman won gold with Team USA at the Olympics. (Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
Boston Bruins
Jeremy Swayman will enter the Olympic conversation
Swayman has regressed to his standard form. He indeed was named to the U.S. Olympic team and even stole a start from reigning Hart Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck during the tournament. He is also leading the Bruins to the playoffs, with a 28-15-4 record, 2.72 goals-against average and .908 save percentage — after going 22-29-7 with a 3.11 GAA and .892 save percentage last season. — Fluto Shinzawa
New York Rangers
They will have six players who are 23 or younger in their lineup by February
The Rangers haven’t had six 23-and-under players every night, but they did at least once by February. On Jan. 31, they had six: Will Cuylle (who turned 24 shortly after), Noah Laba, Scott Morrow, Matt Rempe, Gabe Perreault and the now-traded Brennan Othmann. The team has certainly made a shift to young players, most recently bringing up 21-year-old Adam Sýkora. — Peter Baugh
Pittsburgh Penguins
Bryan Rust will not be traded
Rust indeed remains a member of the Penguins. Many believed Rust was as good as gone when his no-movement power expired last July. Kyle Dubas, though, values everything Rust brings to the table far too much to move him. He’s having yet another exceptional season. — Josh Yohe
Edmonton Oilers
Evan Bouchard will be a Norris Trophy finalist
Bouchard has delivered a phenomenal season for the Oilers and earned Norris consideration. He leads all NHL defensemen in points and, as of Wednesday, is the owner of a 55 percent goal share at five-on-five (Edmonton is 42 percent without him). He plays the toughest minutes on the team and thrives in all game states. Despite some defensive lapses, he’s an impact player and would be a worthy Norris finalist. His much-criticized $10.5 million AAV contract is a value deal. — Allan Mitchell
Anaheim Ducks
They will make the playoffs
This was their mission statement after hiring Joel Quenneville as their head coach. While a nine-game losing streak threatened to derail this level-up season, the Ducks have responded by going 20-6-1 over a 27-game stretch. It has helped them move to the top of the Pacific, where they are in a good position to claim their first division title since 2016-17. But what about that negative goal differential? Details, details. — Eric Stephens