Over the past month Kenny Atkinson has made it clear the Cleveland Cavaliers are going to be trimming the rotation for playoff time.
Since then, injuries have made it impossible for Clevekand to determine who’ll be the odd ones out during the postseason.
There are still a few more games until the end of the season, but here’s an early prediction on what Cleveland’s rotation will look like in the postseason.
Starters
Donovan Mitchell and James Harden will be the obvious starting guards. Both guys will be looking to change their playoff storylines in their careers as guys who can score a lot, but can’t win in big moments.
Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley will be the bigs. They may also be the keys to the postseason if they can play some of their best ball of the season. Expect all four starters to be over the 30 minutes mark consistently. Harden and Mitchell will likely be over 35 most nights.
Dean Wade has missed time with a strange injury, but should be good to go by the postseason. Expect him to slot in as the final starters. He gives the team a blend of size, shooting and defense. He’ll get around 20-25 minutes per night.
Next three in
Max Strus has been a dynamic threat ever since returning from an injury that looked to derail his season. Atkinson trusts him, so he’ll be one of the first guys off the bench and around 20 minutes.
Dennis Schroder also feels like a lock to play 15-20 minutes per game. He knows how to elevate a unit and take over as a primary scorer when needed, and can also be a facilitator when out with the starters. He’s a sparkplug and will continue to get heavy postseason minutes.
The final spot is the hardest to choose between. Jaylon Tyson, Sam Merrill and Keon Ellis all have great cases to play and should still be utilized for Cleveland, even if it’s in smaller doses.
Expect Tyson to be the final guy seeing 15 or more minutes per game. His mix of scoring and defense is too valuable to the team, even if he’s seen a decline in play over the past month. Simply put, the team is better when Tyson is playing.
Unlikely to see many minutes
Ellis and Merrill become the two odd men out. It’s hard to picture Atkinson fully benching them though. They each bring value in their roles and should still be 10 minutes per game kind of guys, giving others a quick break here and there.
Ellis can be a game wrecker in his defense. He’s the hardest guy to figure out how much he’ll play. Atkinson could name him a last second starter, or keep him on the bench for a whole game. It’ll depend on the series, but Ellis’s defense should be utilized when applicable.
Merrill is the team’s best shooter. He gives a spark of life when the offense begins to fall flat and isn’t a bad defender around the perimeter. Expect both guys to still play about 10 minutes per game, but that could rise pretty heavily if the mismatch or need is there.
Bottom of the bench
Craig Porter Jr., Thomas Bryant, Larry Nance Jr., and Nae’Qwan Tomlin are the last few names of note on the bench. In most games they’ll be a healthy scratch, but could see minutes if injuries or foul trouble are a problem.
Nance, Bryant and Tomlin are all backup bigs that have struggled to see consistent minutes this year. If Cleveland needs more size, Tomlin will likely be the first one in as a solid defender.
Porter can be a good facilitator and decent scorer as another guard if Cleveland finds the need., He’s also an outstanding rebounder for a guard, which Cleveland could need in certain late-game moments.Â
Now all these predictions are assuming the best for Cleveland and they can get healthy before the playoffs. With Cleveland’s luck this year though, that’s certainly wishful thinking.