Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight contenders Anthony Hernandez vs. Roman Dolidze will go to war TONIGHT (Sat., Aug. 9, 2025) at UFC Vegas 109 inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Hernandez is taking the long road to title contention. Already riding a seven-fight win streak, “Fluffy” has beaten a bunch of solid opposition and produced good finishes, but he’s advancing the ladder just one rung at a time. Dolidze, ranked one spot above Hernandez at No. 9, is the next step. At 37 years of age, the Georgian mauler is still improving, as evidenced by his two bouts with Marvin Vettori in 2023 and 2025 — Dolidze did way better in the rematch! He’s not a perfect fighter by any means, but Dolidze is very dangerous and rides a three-fight win streak into his third main event opportunity.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – JUNE 29: Roman Dolidze of Georgia kicks Anthony Smith in a light heavyweight fight during the UFC 303 event at T-Mobile Arena on June 29, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images) Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Hernandez vs. Dolidze Betting Odds
Anthony Hernandez victory: -310Anthony Hernandez via TKO/KO/DQ: +350Anthony Hernandez via submission: +225Anthony Hernandez via decision: +185Roman Dolidze victory: +250Roman Dolidze via TKO/KO/DQ: +500Roman Dolidze via submission: +1200Roman Dolidze via decision: +900Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – FEBRUARY 22: (R-L) Anthony Hernandez punches Brendan Allen in a middleweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at Climate Pledge Arena on February 22, 2025 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
Anthony Hernandez has put together a very well-crafted MMA game. His best attributes are his top game and cardio, and the rest of his skills are built to maximize those advantages. His boxing is filled with smart combinations that set up takedowns, and once on the canvas, Hernandez has a way of trapping his opponents in sequences that wear on their gas tanks and allow “Fluffy” to constantly chip away.
He’s finished 11 of his 14 victories via tapout or strikes.
In this bout, pace is a big advantage. Dolidze is powerful but can be lumbering, and he definitely loses some of the thump in his shots as time wears on. In addition, he tends to use his jiu-jitsu as takedown defense/deterrent, which grows less effective with a bit of fatigue. The key, therefore, is surviving the early goings and then capitalizing as Dolidze starts to fade.
How to do so? I’d like to see Hernandez really pursue the clinch and dirty boxing exchanges. There are safe positions there where he can exhaust Dolidze. He could take a page from Nick Diaz’s book, for example, by driving his forehead into the jaw and ripping the ribs with short punches. Hernandez could also look to take down Dolidze and jam him into the fence, where “The Caucasian” will be less able to invert and attack legs.
Either way, Hernandez will have to mix pressure and patience to wear Dolidze down and prime himself for serious success down the stretch.
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – JUNE 29: Roman Dolidze of Georgia celebrates after defeating Anthony Smith of the United Statesduring a light heavyweight bout during UFC 303 at T-Mobile Arena on June 29, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images) Getty Images
Dolidze is a bruiser. He marches forward at his opponents, blasting high kicks and swinging big ol’ hooks from the hip. He doesn’t have a consistent way of gaining top position, but when fights do hit the canvas, Dolidze switches it up by showing off genuinely beautiful jiu-jitsu technique.
Dolidze has to start fast here, because his chance at victory drops off after the first couple rounds. In this match up, his advantages are size and power, as well as general finishing ability. Hernandez breaks people down and finishes them late, but Dolidze has a history of just sparking his opponents outright or forcing them into a checkmate position on the floor.
Likely, he’ll need one of the two here. As such, Dolidze should be pressing hard off the bat, trying to make Hernandez uncomfortable with his power shots. If “Fluffy” doesn’t feel comfortable exchanging, then Dolidze knows the shot is coming. He can look to counter with strikes in close quarters or reverse his way into top position with his grappling skill. Either way, forcing Hernandez on his back foot will help Dolidze set traps and secure that early finish.
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – FEBRUARY 22: Anthony Hernandez prepares to face Brendan Allen in a middleweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at Climate Pledge Arena on February 22, 2025 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
Hernandez vs. Dolidze Prediction
There are two very clear possible outcomes here. Dolidze can find his early finish, or Hernandez is going to drown him with activity as the fight wears on. I lean towards the latter, largely because Hernandez has more areas he can win the fight. He could win a boxing match, a clinch scrap, or wrestle his way into top position. Likely, he does a mix of all three.
The risk of getting caught cold early exists, but every second that goes by shifts the odds further into Hernandez’s favor.
Prediction: Hernandez via decision