When Robert Williams III was included in the Boston Celtics’ trade package to secure Jrue Holiday from the Portland Trail Blazers in 2023, he was expected to form one of the league’s better center tandems with Deandre Ayton.
While injury-prone, Williams had proved himself as one of the NBA’s best defensive big men, a key member of the Celtics’ 2022 Eastern Conference Championship. That season, he finished with an All Defensive Second team honor, placing seventh in Defensive Player of the Year voting.
Unfortunately, in the two seasons he’s spent in Blazers colors, the 27-year-old has played a grand total of 26 games, just 15.9 percent of a possible 164. Leg injuries, a center logjam and a less-than-competitive Blazers squad have unfortunately left Williams’ defensive star on the sidelines as he enters a contract season.
Despite Ayton’s recent departure, Williams’ path to minutes is still not particularly clear following the drafting of Chinese phenom Yang Hansen with the 16th pick in June’s NBA Draft. Donovan Clingan looks set to start at the five with Yang destined for a chunk of back-up minutes.
There’s also Australian national representative Duop Reath who gets minutes pending injury and matchup. Not to mention Toumani Camara and Deni Avdija who played spot minutes at the five last season.
But with Williams’ unrestricted free agency fewer than 12 months away, decisions will soon need to be made. Decisions made more difficult if he doesn’t get on the floor.
A combination of athleticism, touch and high-level basketball instincts make a healthy Williams a nightmare for the league’s best big men.
In 20 games last season, Williams averaged 5.8 points on 64.1 percent from the field, 5.9 rebounds, 1.1 assists and 1.7 blocks in 17.6 minutes. Despite the low-level court time, among bigs, he ranked second in block rate behind Victor Wembanyama, 13th in points per shot attempt and 17th in effective field goal percentage.
When Williams was on the court last season, the Blazers were 0.9 points better, ranking in the 95th percentile in opponent field goal percentage.
He can guard on the perimeter, stopping guards and wings, thriving against pick and rolls and in help-defense situations. Despite being a touch shorter than most centers, Williams is an elite rim protector thanks to elite timing, athleticism and a 7’6 wingspan.
On offense, Williams finishes with conviction at the rim where he converts 75 percent of his shots. Though his jump shot isn’t particularly reliable, Williams’ ability to convert second-chance points and pass out of traffic allows him to be effective on that end. His energy also results in regularly-won 50-50 balls.
Williams is a blue-collar center who gets every ounce of production out of his natural gifts, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. In the moments he did spend on the floor last season, he was impactful almost every second he was out there. A sort of controlled mayhem deterring opponents on the defensive end while making things happen on offense.
But it was far from enough.
If General Manager Joe Cronin was asking me, Williams needs to be available more often that not. Clingan and Yang will play the majority of minutes at center next season, pushing Williams to third string. But he’ll be needed given the youth and projected foul issues the young guys will surely encounter.
For Williams to serve the Blazers next season, he needs to play in more than 40 games, a sizeable increase on the 20 and 6-game campaigns he’s seen over the past two years.
Personally, I love the idea of Williams but his body hasn’t allowed any of us to see it for extended periods in a Portland jersey. Of course, if one of the two young bigs suffers an injury, Williams will be called into action. In this instance, the former Celtic could very quickly prove his fitness by averaging 20-plus minutes, acknowledging he probably doesn’t play back-to-backs. No one is expecting All-Defensive Team form, but even a baseline Williams game will be enough to help this team.
Even if the big Louisianan returns to the court this season, the Blazers have hitched their wagon to two first round draft centers in consecutive years. The best-case scenario has Williams returning to form in October, November, December and January, allowing the Blazers to get a decent-enough trade return for him in February.
I’m reluctant to suggest trade packages but a healthy Williams works on pretty much any NBA franchise. His defense, basketball intelligence and athleticism is a tantalizing thought. I’m not saying a fit Williams brings back a haul, but a middling first-round pick wouldn’t be ridiculous.
Many of us are still attached to the idea of a healthy Williams, especially given he’s still somehow only 27. If he should have some hope of health through the early part of the season, the Blazers and Williams could come to terms on an extension. But Williams would have to be happy with a modest amount with caveats — we’re talking two years, at roughly $8 million a year with a team option on the second year. The amount and nature of the deal gives them the flexibility and a nice amount to move Williams if it doesn’t work out.
Ultimately, the Blazers have until February’s NBA Trade Deadline to make a call, a decision made more difficult if he stays on the court.
Unfortunately, for Blazers fans, the two centers brought back in the Damian Lillard trade haven’t panned out as hoped. Ayton was bought out and, unless he fails to play consistent ball for a third straight season, Williams could leave Portland without anything in return.
Right now, an injured Williams is the default, which means he’d have to surprise everyone by staying on the court and contributing a level we saw with the Celtics three years ago.
The Blazers have drafted two young bigs over the past two years, despite Williams still being on the roster. The odds of him returning to form of old are low, which suggests he walks next summer. But on the small chance his body is right and remains healthy, the Blazers will have until the deadline to make a call.