Derek CartyApr 6, 2026, 10:10 AM ET

CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.

Multiple Authors

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz

Monday’s top batter prop bets

Kazuma Okamoto | OVER 0.5 HR (+650)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.50 EV
One reason to bet this: Over the last week, Okamoto has posted a 25-degree launch angle, lifting the ball well and indicating strong home run potential.

Will Smith | OVER 0.5 HR (+518)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.71 EV
One reason to bet this: The Rogers Centre roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this matchup 15 degrees hotter than the average outdoor game on Monday’s slate — favorable for offense.

Luke Raley | OVER 0.5 H+R+RBI (-127)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.82 EV
One reason to bet this: As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the fifth-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.

Jorbit Vivas | UNDER 0.5 H (+132)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.06 EV
One reason to bet this: Vivas has done a bad job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls. His 3.1-degree angle is among the lowest in the league since the start of last season (seventh percentile).

Today’s top pitcher prop bets

Justin Wrobleski | UNDER 3.5 K (+119)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.47 EV
One reason to bet this: The Toronto Blue Jays have seven batters in their projected lineup that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Wrobleski in today’s game.

Brandon Woodruff | UNDER 6.5 K (-150)
Projection: 73% chance of this bet hitting, with a $32.88 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to right at 11.9 mph in this game, the third-strongest of the day for bats.

Janson Junk | UNDER 2.5 ER (-118)
Projection: 64% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.02 EV
One reason to bet this: The Miami Marlins‘ outfield defense projects as the fifth-strongest out of all teams playing today.

Bubba Chandler | UNDER 1.5 ER (+118)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.49 EV
One reason to bet this: With six batters who hit from the same side in the San Diego Padres‘ projected lineup, Chandler figures to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.

The BAT X: Team Projections

PITCHER

MONEY
LINE

PROJ.
WIN%

VALUE %

RUN
LINE

OV

VALUE %

GAME
TOTAL

O/U

xRUNS

VALUE %

Michael Wacha

-102

51.1

2.21

-1.0

+127

0.42

7.5

O +102

7.93

-2.29

Tanner Bibee

-118

49.0

-10.60

+1.0

-166

-10.65

U -122

-6.05

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brandon Williamson

+109

44.9

-6.39

+1.0

-143

-7.37

8.0

O -112

8.84

-1.55

Janson Junk

-131

55.1

-2.64

-1.0

+110

-4.47

U -108

-7.57

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

German Marquez

+109

36.6

-24.74

+1.0

-140

-24.98

8.5

O -108

9.20

-2.74

Bubba Chandler

-131

63.4

12.84

-1.0

+107

16.42

U -112

-6.30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brandon Woodruff

-115

45.9

-13.94

-1.0

+109

-19.08

8.0

O -110

8.22

-11.02

Brayan Bello

-105

54.2

5.37

+1.0

-142

4.43

U -110

1.93

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Andre Pallante

-118

54.8

2.72

-1.0

+108

0.71

8.0

O -112

7.92

-16.98

Zack Littell

-102

45.2

-12.07

+1.0

-140

-11.58

U -107

8.61

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Justin Wrobleski

-149

57.8

-2.49

-1.0

-120

-4.03

9.0

O +101

9.57

-3.72

Max Scherzer

+123

42.2

-7.12

+1.0

-108

-8.23

U -122

-5.20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Casey Mize

+104

48.5

-0.14

+1.0

-153

-0.69

7.0

O -115

7.84

1.76

Joe Ryan

-126

51.5

-8.43

-1.0

+117

-13.33

U -105

-11.03

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Albert Suarez

-143

54.2

-7.34

-1.0

-117

-10.86

9.0

O -106

9.20

-13.15

Grant Taylor

+119

45.9

-0.42

+1.0

-111

-1.27

U -114

3.83

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Logan Gilbert

+100

45.3

-8.82

+1.0

-156

-7.27

7.5

O -102

7.61

-9.36

Jacob deGrom

-120

54.7

-0.25

-1.0

+120

-4.32

U -118

0.19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cody Bolton

-186

55.8

-14.71

-1.5

-120

-16.90

10.5

O -112

12.10

5.64

Ryan Feltner

+153

44.2

12.66

+1.5

+100

9.34

U -108

-14.89

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chris Sale

-175

52.3

-16.56

-1.5

+100

-20.02

7.5

O -115

7.50

-16.28

Jose Soriano

+144

47.7

14.44

+1.5

-120

10.02

U -105

7.81

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Andrew Painter

-120

53.8

-0.62

-1.0

+107

-1.53

8.0

O -105

8.94

2.87

Adrian Houser

+100

46.2

-8.42

+1.0

-139

-9.85

U -115

-11.55

Top Betting Trends

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year’s play.

Atlanta Braves Run Line:
The Braves have covered the run line in 13 straight road games. (+13.20 Units / 73% ROI). Current odds: -1.5 @ +100

Minnesota Twins Game Total UNDER:
Nine straight Twins games have gone under the total. (+9.00 Units / 92% ROI). Current odds: 7 @ -105

San Francisco Giants 1st 5 innings (F5) Moneyline:
The Giants have led after five innings in five straight games. (+5.05 Units / 47% ROI). Current odds: +100

Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline:
The Dodgers have won 13 of their last 15 road games, dating back to last season. (+10.30 Units / 52% ROI). Current odds: -149

Milwaukee Brewers 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total UNDER:
The Brewers have gone under in this bet in eight of their last 10 road games. (8-2) (+5.80 Units / 49% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ +114