Weather could be deciding factor at Paris-Roubaix as Slovenian targets victory in cycling’s toughest one-day race and pushes toward a historic monument sweep.
Forecasts call for a chance of rain Saturday night before Paris-Roubaix. (Photo: Gruber Images)
Updated April 8, 2026 05:49AM
Tadej Pogačar should be facing relatively dry cobbles and spring conditions on Sunday at Paris-Roubaix as he chases an elusive victory at the Hell of the North.
Paris-Roubaix might not be so hellish this year, with forecasts pointing to cloudy and overcast skies but no significant rain, along with mild temperatures and light winds across northern France.
Fast, mostly dry conditions will favor the world No. 1’s bid to conquer cycling’s most brutal monument and complete a rare monument sweep.
A faster race on dryer cobbles typically favors pure power and speed, something that will play to Pogačar’s strengths in his improbable run at cycling’s most brutal one-day race against three-time defending champion Mathieu van der Poel.
“Several factors could work against him, particularly the weather conditions,” said race director Thierry Gouvenou. “If it’s dry, that could be to his advantage. On the other hand, with a headwind, he might find it harder to make a difference.”
Paris-Roubaix remains the most weather-sensitive race on the calendar.
Chaos, crashes, and mayhem are part of any edition of the “Queen of the Classics,” but things turn dramatically worse in wet and muddy conditions.
Pogačar proved last year that he can handle the cobbles at Paris-Roubaix, and conditions on Sunday could be very similar to what the peloton faced in 2025.
No major rain expected
The last wet and muddy edition of Roubaix was in 2021. (Photo: Gruber Images)
Teams will be closely monitoring forecasts to fine-tune late decisions on wheel choice and tire pressure. Squads will be doing final recon rides on Thursday and Friday to gauge real-time conditions.
The race’s last truly miserable and muddy edition came in 2021, when the pavé turned notoriously slick and treacherous.
On paper, brutal wet conditions would favor hardened classics specialists like Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert.
“If it’s wet, cyclocross skills become essential, and riders like Wout van Aert or Mathieu van der Poel are generally more comfortable than him on the cobbles in those conditions,” Gouvenou said. “We can assume that Mathieu van der Poel still has a slight edge over Pogačar on this terrain.”
Five days out, the weather gods appear to be smiling on the peloton ahead of the women’s, men’s, and junior races all set for Sunday.
There is a chance of overnight showers late Saturday and early Sunday that could slightly dampen the cobbles, but no major rainfall is expected.
Of course, the weather is never the whole story at Paris-Roubaix. Crashes, punctures, and mayhem can happen at any moment on cycling’s most brutal roads.
But if the forecasts hold, the Hell of the North may lose its most unpredictable factor, and that could be exactly what Pogačar needs to make history.
Tail/cross winds will mean a fast race
Conditions could be similar to last year. (Photo: Gruber Images)
Race organizers previewed key sectors earlier this week, with conditions described as close to ideal for such a brutal race as they can be.
Recent rain has settled dust and muck, but the roughest sectors are not heavily bogged down with mud or waterlogged.
Forecasts can change, but right now, temperatures are expected to start cool near 5°C in the morning and rise to around 14°C in the afternoon.
Cloud cover will increase through the day, with roughly a 25 percent chance of light showers.
Winds are expected to pick up, with southwest gusts of 17 to 20 km/h in the afternoon. That means a mix of cross/tailwinds in the final run toward the Roubaix velodrome, conditions that would be favorable to Pogačar if he launches alone late in the race.
After his dominance at Milan-San Remo and Tour of Flanders, Pogačar has now rattled off four straight monuments and moved up on the all-time list with 12 wins, second to Merckx with 19.
The Slovenian is trying to become the first Tour de France winner to win cycling’s most brutal one-day race since Bernard Hinault.
A win on Sunday would also make the Slovenian the fourth male racer to win all five of cycling’s one-day monuments.
With the way he is racing right now, the weather could be the only rival he cannot demolish.