Derek CartyApr 17, 2026, 11:09 AM ET

CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.

Multiple Authors

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz

Friday’s top batter prop bets

Corbin Carroll | OVER 0.5 HR (+680)
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.22 EV

Jordan Walker | OVER 0.5 HR (+531)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.47 EV

Brandon Lowe | OVER 0.5 RBI (+189)
Projection: 39% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.25 EV

Pete Crow-Armstrong | UNDER 0.5 H (+179)
Projection: 41% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.53 EV

Dominic Smith | OVER 0.5 HR (+980)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.94 EV

Nathan Lukes | UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+105)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.13 EV

Friday’s top pitcher prop bets

Jose Soriano | UNDER 2.5 ER (-161)
Projection: 77% chance of this bet hitting, with a $40.52 EV

Logan Gilbert | OVER 7.5 K (-111)
Projection: 63% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.23 EV

Logan Gilbert | UNDER 1.5 ER (+105)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.61 EV

Zack Littell | UNDER 3.5 K (-154)
Projection: 72% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.52 EV

Aaron Civale | OVER 3.5 K (-158)
Projection: 72% chance of this bet hitting, with a $26.68 EV

THE BAT X: Team Projections

PITCHER

MONEY
LINE

PROJ.
WIN%

VALUE %

RUN
LINE

OV

VALUE %

GAME
TOTAL

O/U

xRUNS

VALUE %

Kodai Senga

+123

35.7

-22.46

+1.0

-117

-22.83

10.5

O -115

9.92

-29.33

Edward Cabrera

-149

64.3

9.01

-1.0

-111

10.99

U -105

21.44

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chris Bassitt

+113

40.2

-15.23

+1.0

-135

-15.49

8.0

O -110

8.96

1.43

Tanner Bibee

-136

59.8

4.46

-1.0

+104

4.96

U -110

-10.52

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Martin Perez

-115

48.9

-9.46

-1.0

+109

-10.74

9.5

O -102

10.89

7.24

Taijuan Walker

-105

51.2

0.68

+1.0

-142

-2.36

U -118

-15.29

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Logan Webb

-156

66.0

9.92

-1.0

-125

10.43

8.0

O -115

8.70

-5.38

Zack Littell

+129

34.0

-24.38

+1.0

-104

-24.19

U -105

-3.57

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nick Martinez

+113

36.1

-24.56

+1.0

-137

-25.61

8.5

O -105

9.24

-0.72

Bubba Chandler

-136

63.9

12.07

-1.0

+105

16.85

U -115

-8.11

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Michael Wacha

+153

31.6

-22.81

+1.0

+102

-25.77

8.0

O -115

9.40

7.03

Cam Schlittler

-186

68.4

6.85

-1.0

-133

10.81

U -105

-16.54

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Coleman Crow

-105

51.0

0.27

-1.0

+117

-3.91

8.0

O -110

8.42

-7.85

Janson Junk

-115

49.1

-9.06

+1.0

-153

-7.86

U -110

-1.24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Casey Mize

+109

40.7

-15.31

+1.0

-145

-15.18

7.5

O -118

8.07

-8.40

Ranger Suarez

-131

59.3

4.88

-1.0

+112

5.58

U -102

-0.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kyle Leahy

+119

48.3

5.65

+1.0

-133

1.56

9.0

O +102

9.34

-7.06

Peter Lambert

-143

51.7

-12.04

-1.0

+102

-15.10

U -122

-1.76

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brandon Williamson

+149

41.2

2.66

+1.0

+101

2.69

7.5

O -118

8.02

-9.22

Joe Ryan

-181

58.8

-8.76

-1.0

-131

-13.75

U -102

0.72

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tyler Glasnow

-314

77.9

3.45

-3.0

-108

9.5

O -112

11.48

15.63

Tomoyuki Sugano

+248

22.1

-25.04

+3.0

-120

U -108

-25.06

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Matt Waldron

+113

34.4

-28.07

+1.0

-132

-26.85

8.5

O -102

8.48

-11.71

Jose Soriano

-136

65.6

14.93

-1.0

+101

17.34

U -118

2.39

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Davis Martin

+135

47.6

11.32

+1.0

-106

9.90

9.0

O -118

9.85

-6.46

Aaron Civale

-163

52.5

-15.08

-1.0

-123

-21.22

U -102

-2.23

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jacob deGrom

+109

48.3

2.49

+1.0

-149

2.09

6.5

O -110

6.75

-1.30

Logan Gilbert

-131

51.7

-10.14

-1.0

+114

-16.73

U -110

-7.79

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eric Lauer

+119

44.8

-2.06

+1.0

-128

-3.60

9.0

O +100

9.19

-10.66

Mike Soroka

-143

55.2

-6.06

-1.0

-101

-8.69

U -120

1.44

Top betting trends

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last season’s play.

Los Angeles Angels 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total OVER
The Angels have gone over this bet in 11 straight games. (+11.65 Units / 86% ROI). Current odds: 2.5 @ +105

San Diego Padres Team Total OVER
The Padres have gone over this bet in eight straight games. (+8.10 Units / 90% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -125

Minnesota Twins Team Total OVER
The Twins have gone over this bet in six straight games. (+6.15 Units / 83% ROI). Current odds: 4.5 @ +110

Detroit Tigers Moneyline
The Tigers have won six straight games. (+6.00 Units / 76% ROI). Current odds: +109

Arizona Diamondbacks Team Total OVER
The Diamondbacks have gone over this bet in nine of their last 10 games. (+8.15 Units / 70% ROI). Current odds: 4.5 @ -110

Atlanta Braves Game Total OVER
Eight of the Braves’ last 10 games have gone over the total. (+6.90 Units / 61% ROI). Current odds: 9.5 @ -102