Derek CartyApr 18, 2026, 09:15 AM ET
CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.
Multiple Authors
All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Saturday’s top batter prop bets
Brenton Doyle | OVER 0.5 HR (+1120)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $32.98 EV
Cedric Mullins | OVER 0.5 HR (+970)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.94 EV
Cedric Mullins | OVER 0.5 RBI (+310)
Projection: 30% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.71 EV
Jorge Mateo | UNDER 0.5 H+R+RBI (+111)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.25 EV
Isiah Kiner-Falefa | UNDER 0.5 H+R+RBI (+130)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.27 EV
Saturday’s top pitcher prop bets
German Marquez | UNDER 3.5 K (+101)
Projection: 76% chance of this bet hitting, with a $52.24 EV
Cristopher Sanchez | UNDER 1.5 ER (+105)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $40.94 EV
Chris Sale | OVER 7.5 K (-106)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $35.46 EV
Brandon Woodruff | UNDER 5.5 K (-137)
Projection: 72% chance of this bet hitting, with a $33.88 EV.
Gavin Williams | OVER 7.5 K (+116)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.20 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
PITCHER
MONEY
LINE
PROJ.
WIN%
VALUE %
RUN
LINE
OV
VALUE %
GAME
TOTAL
O/U
xRUNS
VALUE %
Noah Cameron
+144
36.4
-12.62
+1.0
-104
-13.67
8.0
O -112
8.64
-4.43
Will Warren
-175
63.6
0.87
-1.0
-125
0.78
U -108
-4.65
Andrew Abbott
+113
45.0
-4.06
+1.0
-135
-3.98
8.0
O -105
8.43
-5.45
Taj Bradley
-136
55.0
-4.63
-1.0
+104
-8.53
U -115
-3.59
Freddy Peralta
-108
43.9
-15.03
-1.0
+113
-22.08
8.5
O -102
7.79
-22.86
Jameson Taillon
-112
56.1
5.77
+1.0
-148
6.27
U -118
12.79
Adrian Houser
-118
53.0
-1.53
-1.0
+105
-4.27
9.5
O -112
9.09
-24.80
Cade Cavalli
-102
47.1
-7.52
+1.0
-136
-7.51
U -108
16.08
Erick Fedde
+139
41.4
-2.68
+1.0
-104
-4.34
9.5
O -115
9.93
-14.21
Luis Severino
-168
58.6
-5.43
-1.0
-125
-7.79
U -105
5.64
Drew Rasmussen
+139
39.6
-6.31
+1.0
-109
-8.00
7.0
O -122
8.80
14.15
Paul Skenes
-168
60.4
-3.01
-1.0
-119
-4.27
U +102
-24.71
Tarik Skubal
-175
61.7
-0.91
-1.5
+104
-0.04
7.0
O -120
6.64
-19.46
Brayan Bello
+144
38.3
-9.87
+1.5
-126
-8.52
U +100
12.14
Brandon Woodruff
-108
53.7
4.21
-1.0
+119
4.18
7.5
O -108
9.13
12.19
Sandy Alcantara
-112
46.3
-13.14
+1.0
-156
-13.96
U -112
-20.97
Dean Kremer
+113
44.1
-5.68
+1.0
-140
-6.14
7.5
O -102
7.90
-4.68
Gavin Williams
-136
55.9
-3.31
-1.0
+108
-5.88
U -118
-4.17
Andre Pallante
+129
49.2
12.83
+1.0
-117
10.11
9.0
O -105
9.06
-15.11
Lance McCullers Jr.
-156
50.8
-16.75
-1.0
-111
-22.77
U -115
5.67
Chris Sale
+109
41.7
-11.72
+1.0
-149
-9.56
7.0
O -115
5.94
-28.68
Cristopher Sanchez
-131
58.3
1.85
-1.0
+114
-1.82
U -105
20.75
Nathan Eovaldi
+119
47.9
5.69
+1.0
-133
3.82
7.0
O -120
7.89
0.58
George Kirby
-143
52.1
-12.08
-1.0
+102
-17.71
U +100
-9.72
Emmet Sheehan
-308
79.0
5.22
-3.5
-106
11.5
O -105
12.20
-1.17
Ryan Feltner
+244
21.0
-29.24
+3.5
-122
U -114
-7.30
Max Scherzer
+104
45.7
-7.38
+1.0
-149
-9.12
9.0
O -102
9.77
-1.10
Zac Gallen
-126
54.3
-2.07
-1.0
+114
-2.37
U -118
-7.52
German Marquez
-110
37.3
-30.85
-1.0
+113
-34.72
9.5
O -115
11.11
3.24
Yusei Kikuchi
-110
62.7
21.76
+1.0
-148
16.21
U -105
-12.57
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last season’s play.
Los Angeles Angels 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total Over:
The Angels have won this bet in 12 straight games. (12-0) (+12.70 Units / 88% ROI). Current odds: 2.5 @ -115
St. Louis Cardinals Team Total Over:
The Cardinals have won this bet in six straight away games. (6-0) (+6.15 Units / 88% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -135
Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline:
The Dodgers have won this bet in 18 of their last 20 away games. (18-2) (+15.40 Units / 48% ROI). Current odds: -308