Can Vancouver support a Major League Baseball team?

It’s a fascinating question in light of Mayor Ken Sim’s announcement that Vancouver is looking to pursue an MLB expansion team.

It’ll require a billionaire willing to buck up for not only a franchise, but the building of a new ballpark as well.

“We’re seeing interest in bringing a team here, and it’s credible interest,” Sim said last week.

“What I can tell you is we are very excited about the quality of individuals and groups that are expressing an interest… What I think people should realize is the nature of sports ownership, professional sports teams, it’s global now. You can have local interest with partners.”

While Vancouver will never be New York, Los Angeles, or even Toronto, it wouldn’t be the smallest market in Major League Baseball.

The Lower Mainland now has a population of about 3.5 million, including 3.14 million in Metro Vancouver. That puts Vancouver ahead of eight other MLB markets, including Las Vegas, which is the future home of the Athletics.

Here’s how Vancouver compares to other MLB markets, taking data from CensusReporter.org combined statistical areas (CSAs) for American cities:

Milwaukee (Brewers): 2.1 million
Cincinnati (Reds): 2.3 million
Las Vegas (Athletics): 2.5 million
Kansas City (Royals): 2.6 million
Pittsburgh (Pirates): 2.7 million
St. Louis (Cardinals): 2.9 million
San Diego (Padres): 3.3 million
Tampa (Tampa Bay Rays): 3.4 million
Vancouver: 3.5 million
Cleveland (Guardians): 3.8 million
Denver (Colorado Rockies): 3.8 million
Minneapolis-St. Paul (Minnesota Twins): 4.2 million
Seattle (Mariners): 5.1 million
Phoenix (Arizona Diamondbacks): 5.2 million
Detroit (Tigers): 5.4 million
Toronto (Blue Jays): 7 million
Atlanta (Braves): 7.3 million
Miami (Marlins): 7.3 million
Philadelphia (Phillies): 7.5 million
Houston (Astros): 8.0 million
Boston (Red Sox): 8.5 million
Dallas (Texas Rangers): 8.9 million
Bay Area (San Francisco Giants): 9.2 million
Chicago (White Sox, Cubs): 9.9 million
Washington-Baltimore (Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles): 10.2 million
Los Angeles (Dodgers, Angels) 18.5 million
New York (Yankees, Mets) 22.3 million

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has indicated that he’d like to add two new teams, one in the east and another in the west.

“It would have to be two [new teams for expansion]. With the way our schedule would work, you have to do two,” Manfred said last year. “The only other restriction, ideally, you would need an eastern time zone team and one in… the west.”

That would seem to put Vancouver up against similar-size cities like Salt Lake City (2.9 million) and Portland (3.3 million).

Clearly, a number of factors will be considered before expansion teams are awarded and Vancouver has some hurdles to clear. Let’s see the prospective ownership group and hear what their stadium plan looks like. The Canadian dollar makes things more challenging. Is there enough corporate support?

But in terms of population, there shouldn’t be any doubt. Vancouver is now an MLB-sized city.