As we get deeper into our reporting and analysis on the 2026 MLB Draft, what continues to stand out is the depth of the class. Teams picking in the 10-30 range might not have the separation of talent at the top of the board they’d like, but there’s no shortage of appealing options for them to sort through in the second and third rounds and beyond.
That dynamic could lead to a handful of non-consensus first-round types making their way inside the first 30 picks. Specific organizational philosophies, scouting tendencies or player development strengths could lead one team to view a player as a first-round pick, while another organization might prefer that player in the third round or later.
That’s true every year, but it could be amplified in the 2026 class.
Below, Baseball America subscribers can find 10 such “dark horse” draft prospects it wouldn’t be surprising to see in the first round even if they aren’t ranked like it right now. I’ve lined players up in my best approximation of least surprising to most surprising first-round picks.
Bo Lowrance, 3B, Christ Church Episcopal HS, Greenville, S.C.
Lowrance is one of the most exciting prep sluggers in this year’s class. He has a great frame at 6-foot-5, 200 pounds and some of the loudest raw power in the high school ranks. He’s not just a sell-out power hitter who will have a boom-or-bust offensive profile, either.
Scouts have been impressed with his pure hitting ability and the approach he brings to the lefthanded batter’s box. He manages his at-bats, understands the zone and swings and misses less frequently than you might expect for a longer-levered, big-bodied prep hitter—both this spring and on the showcase circuit a year ago.
Lowrance was a strong performer on the 2025 circuit. In 22 Synergy-logged games, he hit .474/.515/.614 with a 20% miss rate and 17% chase rate.
He’s going to have solid defensive value, as well. Despite his size, Lowrance has come out this spring moving well, showing he might have the footwork and hands to stick at third base. Scouts have been pleasantly surprised with how he’s moved in the field, too, and he’s always had a strong arm that would give him every opportunity to stick at the hot corner.
If a team believes he’s going to have a chance for a 55-grade hit tool to go with his plus-or-better raw power, they might have to pull the trigger on him with their first pick.
Cole Prosek, SS/C, Magnolia Heights HS, Senatobia, Miss.
The hit tool is the one that matters most, and there’s some thought that Prosek could have the best one in the Deep South.
He’s got a lengthy track record as one of the better hitters in the 2026 class, both as an underclassman and during the 2025 showcase circuit last summer. That has continued this spring, with Prosek hitting .560 with 17 home runs and 16 doubles in 35 games for his Magnolia Heights High School team.
At 6-foot-1, 195 pounds, Prosek is fairly filled out without much physical projection remaining, but he might not need any. He’s got great rhythm and timing in the box, with a feel for the barrel and impressive strength that should allow him to hit for both average and solid power. His natural hitting instincts mean he can spray the ball all over the field, though his best-struck balls come to the pull side.
Prosek isn’t a great runner, and he might not have the actions for shortstop, but many teams might seriously consider running him out as a catcher in pro ball. He’s caught a few innings this spring, and scouts who’ve seen him behind the plate see no obvious reason why he couldn’t stick there with more reps and development. He has a strong throwing arm that could be an asset at the position and allow his offensive tools to shine.
Most scouts seem to have Prosek bucketed in the 2-3 round range, but a team viewing him as a plus hitter or high-probability catcher could easily pop him in the first 30 picks.
Connor Comeau, SS, Anderson HS, Austin, Texas
Comeau has been a BA favorite for a while now, and he was one of 10 players on a preseason sleeper list back in January. While he hasn’t made the sort of dramatic jump in physicality or power that might have otherwise launched him up draft boards, he’s still the sort of hitter I could see a team buying within the first 30 picks.
Despite playing weaker Texas competition, Comeau has continued to earn tons of praise for his clean lefty swing, and the reviews on his defensive progress have been positive, as well. Even if most scouts don’t view Comeau as a long-term fit at shortstop, it sounds like he’s moving around better defensively and showing better shortstop actions than many evaluators might have expected to see.
If that’s enough to keep him at third base and prevent a future move to the outfield, that would still be an exciting development for how his hit/power combo profiles.
Ultimately, that offensive package is what might interest a team in the first 30 picks. Comeau’s swing is smooth and easy, with great rhythm and the natural leverage that should allow him to hit for easy power as he packs strength onto his hyper-projectable 6-foot-4 frame. He was a consistent performer on the 2025 circuit and has been the sort of hitter who just always seems to perform, with a knack for finding the barrel.
While Comeau isn’t a great runner, he’s a good athlete, which should help him maintain the things he does well in the box as he gains size. The cherry on top is that Comeau will also only be 17 years old on draft day.
Rocco Maniscalco, SS, Oxford (Ala.) HS
Maniscalco is one of the poster children for the “it only takes one” draft mantra.
He’s exceedingly young for the class, putting him neck-and-neck with fellow 2027-reclass Jared Grindlinger as one of the youngest players available this year. Both players will be 17.2 on draft day, and Maniscalco’s early-May birthday makes him the youngest player ranked on our draft board.
That age for a prep hitter will vault him up model-driven boards. His athleticism and physical toolset will bring along more traditional clubs that aren’t swayed by age alone. He’s a switch-hitter with excellent defensive actions and the tools to become an easy 60-grade defender at shortstop. He moves well in the field, has reliable hands, gets the ball out of his glove with alacrity and has earned 70-grade evaluations on his arm.
The hit tool is more divisive and will require more development, however. Maniscalco has impressive bat speed from both sides of the plate, with solid strength for his age, but the swing can get lengthy, and he doesn’t have the sort of contact skills now that would make him a no-doubt first rounder. Teams that buy into the hit tool will have no issue seeing him as a first-round pick, while others might prefer to grab him later.
Maniscalco has had what sounds like an up-and-down spring offensively, but the latest feedback from scouts has been positive.
Daniel Jackson, C, Georgia
What do you do with a catcher who might not be a catcher but just keeps hitting and has stacked 21 home runs and 21 steals in 45 games?
The answer for some teams could be to just take that guy in the first round, obviously.
In a draft class in which college hitters have generally not lived up to preseason expectations, Jackson got off to a hot start in non-conference play, and he has generally kept things going in the SEC (though his strikeout rate is sneaking back up in conference games).
Jackson is a 6-foot-2, 200-pound righthanded hitter with plus raw power who has made significant improvements as a hitter this spring. He’s become slightly more aggressive with his swing decisions, is jumping on more pitches in the heart of the zone and has improved his overall contact rate by a decent margin. That’s led to a career year with Georgia and a .380/.467/.793 slash line through 45 games. In 2025, he struck out 29.7% of the time. That’s down to 20.1% this spring.
He’s a great runner for a catcher, with above-average and plus grades on his speed, and he’s gone 37-for-39 on the bases throughout his career.
Where Jackson becomes divisive as a prospect mostly comes down to his odds to stick at catcher. Scouts we’ve talked to are incredibly divided on his chances to receive well enough to hang behind the plate. The most pessimistic give him nearly no chance to stick there long term, while others think he has perfectly serviceable actions, tools and athleticism to stick there and improve in pro ball.
Where a team finds itself on Jackson’s defensive projection—plus the confidence that his improved hitting ability is real, and translatable to the pro game—will be key in whether or not they take a shot in the first round.
Logan Hughes, OF, Texas Tech
I find myself thinking about 2025 Arizona State outfielder Brandon Compton a lot when it comes to Hughes. Both are left/left college outfielders with high-probability corner profiles whose value will come primarily from what they can do in the hit and power departments.
While Compton ultimately slid to the Marlins in the second round, there were stages throughout last year’s draft cycle when a first-round pick felt warranted.
Hughes struggled out of the gate in week one, but since then, he’s been on fire. He’s hitting .372/.502/.683 with 12 home runs, 13 doubles, a 13.9% strikeout rate and a career-best 18.7% walk rate. In Big 12 conference play, he’s been even better, posting a .413/.515/.688 slash line.
Hughes is making solid swing decisions, he’s hitting rockets and he’s getting on base at a clip he’s never showcased before. His 95.7 mph average exit velocity, 107.3 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and 111.1 max exit velocity are all standout marks. That sort of impact combined with the contact rate he’s managed this spring is incredibly rare.
There are only three hitters in the country with 100 or more plate appearances with at least a 95 mph average exit velocity and 79% contact rate: Hughes, fellow Texas Tech outfielder Caden Ferraro and senior Penn State DH Michael Anderson.
The secondary tools here and defensive profile are definitely limited. Most scouts and teams seem to agree on that. But he’s a lefthanded hitter who’s stinging the baseball and might hit enough for that to not matter. A model-driven club taking a chance on this bat in the first round would not be a surprise.
Chase Brunson, OF, TCU
If Hughes is the offensive outfielder you should be aware of, Brunson is one who fits in a similar bucket, but with a more well-rounded profile that could appeal to a larger swath of teams. He’s a righthanded hitter whereas Hughes hits lefthanded, and his performance isn’t quite as loud, but he also has a more appealing toolset across the board.
There is a slam-dunk first-round TCU outfielder in this year’s class, but the one who is leading the team in OPS isn’t Sawyer Strosnider—it’s Brunson. He’s a 6-foot-3, 210-pound righty hitting .301/.469/.545 with eight home runs, nine doubles, 12 steals and nearly as many walks (30) as strikeouts (34).
Brunson isn’t just a college performer. He has big league size and solid-average or better tools nearly across the board. He runs well and has split time between center field and right field with Strosnider, he has a strong arm, he hits the ball hard and he makes a solid amount of contact.
While Brunson is hovering right around a career .300 batting average, he’s never been a high-strikeout hitter, and he hits the ball significantly harder than his home run output might suggest. There could be untapped power in the tank.
Brunson’s profile feels safe in that you’re not going to have to put all the eggs in one basket. He does a lot of things on the field to add value.
Jarren Advincula, 2B, Georgia Tech
On a list of players filled with high-upside profiles, Advincula feels like the safest.
He’s a 6-foot-2, 195-pound second baseman and lefthanded hitter who just keeps hitting… and hitting… and hitting. Advincula produced back-to-back seasons with a .300-plus average with California, and through 43 games this spring in Atlanta, he’s hitting .428/.500/.628. He’s been scorching throughout conference play, too, with a .465/.526/.673 slash line.
He’s No. 8 among Division I hitters in batting average and is second in hits behind only Arizona State’s Landon Hairston. The confidence that teams will have in Advincula’s pure hitting ability and contact skills should be greater than that of any player on this list. Because of that, he feels like a safe second-rounder at worst.
He’s a fine defender at second base, who should stick there because of a suspect arm and is also a solid runner despite just 10 career steals.
Where Advincula will face questions is in the power department. He’s always been a hit-first batter and probably always will be, with below-average exit velocity with a metal bat and very little track record of extra-base hits with wood. In 56 games in the Cape Cod League, Advincula has just one home run and nine doubles. For most teams, that lack of impact will be enough to keep him out of first-round consideration.
But a team could view him as a true plus hitter with a lefty bat and middle infield profile and not be too bothered by it—or believe their player development group is capable of unlocking a bit more pop—and take him in the back third of the top 30.
Brett Renfrow, RHP, Virginia Tech
You might not expect a college starter with a 5.74 ERA to be a riser. But that’s exactly what Renfrow is.
He’ll be in a much more prominent spot on our updated 2026 draft board releasing this week, and scouts have seemingly had plenty of debates this spring about whether he or fellow Virginia righty Ben Blair will go off the board first.
Renfrow checks plenty of boxes for a college starter. He has a well-developed build at 6-foot-3, 220 pounds. He throws strikes. He has a deep pitch mix. And he’s added more power to a fastball that was already solid a year ago.
Renfrow has averaged 94.8 mph on his fastball through his first 11 starts, while pushing it to 97-98 mph at peak. His fastball command has improved from a year ago—and his walk rate has followed suit—and he also throws it with solid extension. While his fastball isn’t the biggest bat-misser in the world, Renfrow has used his assembly of secondaries to generate plenty of whiffs and a career-best 30.2% strikeout rate. He throws an even mix of cutters, sliders, curveballs and changeups, and each pitch type has at least a 36% miss rate.
There are pitchers with more pure electricity than Renfrow, but there’s something to be said for the safety of his profile and his long track record as a college starter, which also includes time with Team USA last summer. After the elite arms come off the board, it wouldn’t be shocking to see a club decide to take Renfrow over the high school pitching demographic or other college pitchers who carry more reliever risk.
Carter Beck, OF, Indiana State
Beck feels like the least likely player of this group to warrant a first-round case, but the more you dig into the profile, the easier it is to like him. And nearly every scout you talk to about Beck will mention that model teams adore him, which could drive his draft position up even further—especially for any club that is both model-driven and lacking a second-round pick.
Beck is a 5-foot-11, 205-pound center fielder and lefthanded hitter in the midst of his second straight impressive season with Indiana State. He’s hitting .348/.434/.636 with 11 home runs, 16 doubles and nine stolen bases. He’s an aggressive hitter who has never walked much because he likes to swing the bat, but he’s always kept his strikeouts in check and made a lot of contact. His underlying batted-ball data is also among the very best in the country, with loud exit velocity numbers and tremendous in-zone contact. It’s not the same high-end power that a Logan Hughes or Chase Brunson have at their disposal, but it’s also solidly more than a lighter-bat like Jarren Advincula’s. He also has a few summers of solid wood bat track record in the Western Canadian League.
Beck also might have the best defensive profile of any of the college hitters mentioned here, as he’s a plus runner and terrific athlete who should get every opportunity to stick in center and improve there. His defense does need refinement, but he’s also not spent a ton of time at the position historically as he was a multi-sport athlete in high school who also played hockey and spent time at both shortstop and catcher.
The biggest knock on Beck is that his production and data has come against Missouri Valley Conference competition, which will certainly add some skepticism.