With the Minnesota Timberwolves dispatching the Denver Nuggets in six games on Thursday night, the matchup between Rudy Gobert’s Timberwolves and Victor Wembanyama’s San Antonio Spurs is set.
That’s right: the Western Conference semifinals will feature a battle of French bigs. The Timberwolves enter the series banged up after losing Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo in Round 1, while the Spurs — after a Wemby concussion scare — beat the Portland Trail Blazers relatively easily in five games.
We asked our writers who covered both first-round series to tell us what they’ll be watching heading into Game 1, which will take place on Monday night in San Antonio.
Why did the Wolves and Spurs win their first-round series?
Jon Krawczynski on the Wolves: Heart. The Timberwolves lollygagged through the regular season, looking like a team that was above the mundanity of 82 games. They promised to show more edge, focus and want-to once the playoffs hit.
Did they ever. They lost Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo in Game 4. Naz Reid was playing with a bad shoulder and a bum ankle. Ayo Dosunmu missed Game 6 with a right calf injury. Bones Hyland was banged up. None of that mattered. A team that was disconnected at times this season banded together with a shared hatred of their rivals in Denver and delivered a stunning upset that few picked even when they were relatively healthy to start the series. It was a testament to the playoff bonafides the Wolves have racked up over the last two years — and a statement that they will fight to the end.
Jason Quick on the Wolves: Defense. These Timberwolves get after it. If you are a Spurs fan, get ready to think your players are getting fouled, or bullied, or held. It’s what these guys do. Led by Gobert on Nikola Jokić and Jaden McDaniels on Jamal Murray, the Timberwolves made everything uncomfortable for the Nuggets. There were other factors — Minnesota got key offensive rebounds and a superb breakout series from Dosunmu before his calf injury — but this team wins on defense.
Jared Weiss on the Spurs: Variety. The Spurs are known for Victor Wembanyama. But if you are new to the Spurs, you will be surprised to learn that it’s actually their depth of creation that makes them such a dangerous team. De’Aaron Fox, Steph Castle and Dylan Harper all won games for them in the first round, and they can count on one of those guys to have a great game every single night.
The Spurs have so many different ways to win and they match up well against pretty much every team that comes their way. They are actually at their most dangerous when Wembanyama doesn’t have the ball because he has some of the most effective off-ball gravity to ever exist. The Blazers put up a good fight against San Antonio, but the Spurs ability to overwhelm teams with speed and persistence showed why San Antonio was one of the best teams in the league this year.
What did we learn about the Wolves and Spurs that should carry forward to the next series? How do they match up in the second-round?
Krawczynski: If Minnesota has an edge in this series, it’s simply that they have been here before. This is their third straight trip to the second round of the playoffs. Two straight runs to the Western Conference finals have given them a perspective that most of these young Spurs just do not have yet. They know how to navigate the ups and downs of a series. They understand what it takes to prepare for seven games against one opponent. They will be decided underdogs again against these 62-win Spurs, and rightfully so. But that won’t stop them from throwing everything they have at Wembanyama and Co.
Quick: Gobert is STILL one of the league’s best defenders, and his length and savvy will be factors in how Wembanyama is able to maneuver. They were teammates on the French national team, so they know each other well. You have to think Gobert’s experience will be an asset in at least slowing down the game’s most difficult cover.
Weiss: The Wolves do have the fight in them, which has been a problem for San Antonio this season. They have the length and power in the frontcourt to make life difficult on Wembanyama, and Gobert knows his game as well as anyone. But the Spurs’ guard play has been so good and the Wolves are running out of guards. If these teams were fully healthy, it would be a truly competitive series. But how does Minnesota get past a healthy Spurs team without its starting backcourt — and potentially Dosunmu?
What are you watching the most closely about the Wolves and Spurs as they move forward?
Krawczynski: Dosunmu’s elevation. With Edwards and DiVincenzo out, Dosunmu moved from the seventh man in the rotation to the starting lead guard before missing Game 6 with a right calf injury. He erupted for 43 points in Game 4 and looked very comfortable in a more featured role as the series wore on. If he recovers, he will be facing a tenacious Spurs defense that will pressure him to a far greater degree than Denver did. How he handles the increased responsibility, and the increased attention from the defense, will loom large in the Wolves’ ability to be competitive in this series — assuming he returns.
Quick: Obviously, the health progress of Edwards will be a big storyline in this series. He hurt his left knee in Game 4 of the Nuggets series but there was optimism he could return in the second round. Everyone knows what Edwards can do offensively, but what stood out to me in the first three games of the Denver series was just how tenaciously Edwards protects the rim. He had multiple high-level blocks on layups and dunk attempts — in fact, he was hurt contesting a fast-break layup — and that type of defense will be needed against a Spurs team that likes to get out and run.
Weiss: There is the obvious management of Wembanyama’s health over this long playoff run, but the Spurs have already shown they can win games without him. The real test is whether their shooting and ball flow will hold up against much stiffer competition. There will be a lot of times where San Antonio looks incapable of running offense. That happened against Portland, but the Blazers didn’t have the shooting or elite playmaker to counter when the Spurs went bananas on them. Let’s hope Anthony Edwards can come back and make this series competitive, or fun at the very least.
How do you feel about the Wolves’ or Spurs’ long-term playoff chances after this series? Why should or shouldn’t they be in the title conversation?
Krawczynski: Not great. The first round was an inspiring performance against their chief rivals. But man, the injuries to DiVincenzo and Edwards are gutting. There is a chance that Edwards returns at some point in this series, but he is not expected to be back for the start of it, and how good will he be if he does play? The Nuggets were a flawed opponent who missed Peyton Watson for the entire series and had Aaron Gordon significantly limited by a calf injury. The young Spurs are hungry and healthy. Even if the Wolves were to get by San Antonio, a likely date with Oklahoma City in the conference finals would await. Daunting is an understatement.
Quick: What’s the old saying: Defense wins championships? I was thoroughly impressed with Minnesota’s defense against Denver. The Wolves swarm. Get into you. And they have a swagger. But with the season-ending injury to DiVincenzo, and Edwards knicked up, I’m not sure they have enough firepower to make it all the way.
Weiss: The Spurs are right up there as championship favorites. They have passed every test so far. Wembanyama looks very good and his mindset has been impressive so far. The Spurs’ young players have held up well under the pressure and De’Aaron Fox has strung together a few dominant performances to remind everyone why he’s an All-Star. The Spurs are as balanced a team as you’ll get if things are clicking, just as they have for months now.
Prediction for Wolves-Spurs and why?
Krawczynski: Spurs in 7. If the Wolves were healthy, I would pick them to win this series. Remember, they went 2-1 against San Antonio in the regular season. I think they will put up a fight, for sure. But with so many guys banged up or out, it’s hard to see how they get past a 62-win team.
Quick: Spurs in 6. I’m not sure the Spurs have a weakness. Wemby is a force, Fox was surgical against the Blazers, and Castle has that non-stop, relentless grit that wears on you during a series.
Weiss: Spurs in 5. If Edwards was healthy, I would pick Spurs in 7. But the Wolves are just decimated by injuries now and the Spurs are too good and too locked in to mess around.