A spokesperson for GasBuddy says two factors have been driving up gas prices this week, not only in Southern Manitoba, but the Prairies.
Patrick De Haan is Head of Petroleum Analysis at GasBuddy. He says Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta all feed off the Chicago market, and earlier this week, the Chicago market had several refinery issues. This included the BP refinery in Northwest Indiana, the Phillips 66 refinery near St. Louis, and the ExxonMobil refinery in Joliet.
“This is the time of year that we can tend to see issues develop, and that’s what we’ve seen,” says De Haan.
In addition, there is the unrest in the Middle East that continues to be a factor. De Haan says shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested earlier this week that the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz could last much longer, oil prices surged 10 per cent. As of Friday afternoon, gas prices in Manitoba have climbed 21 cents per litre in the last week.
According to GasBuddy, as of Friday afternoon, the average price for regular gasoline in Steinbach is 189.9 cents per litre. That is higher than the provincial average of 185.1 cents per litre and the national average of 187.0 cents per litre.
How much higher will prices climb?
De Haan says where these prices will end up is contingent on when these refineries can get back online and what happens with the Strait of Hormuz.
“I’m hopeful that we will get some improvement here, that prices may start trickling back in the days ahead as these refineries get back online,” he offers. “But there’s really no telling exactly what the relief will look like. It could be a couple of cents over the weekend.”
The average price for gas in Steinbach is now less than 18 cents away from the record high of 207.5 cents per litre back in June 2022. De Haan says reaching that mark again in the near future is not out of the question.
“If we see any new refinery issues, we could get there,” he adds. “I’m hopeful these refinery issues should be addressed here in the next week or two and that we could start to see prices at least giving up some ground. But that is also going to be contingent on what happens between the U.S. and Iran between now and then as well.
De Haan says he believes that in the short term, our prices have peaked.
“But again that may only be a few days,” he says. “If the Iranians or the Trump Administration is going to get closer to a deal, and that’s really what matters the most.”
One year ago today, the average price in Steinbach was 132.9 cents per litre, with the lowest price in the last 12 months being 111.0 cents per litre back on January 6.
Many provinces still more expensive than Manitoba
As of Friday, Manitoba has the fifth-lowest average price of gas of all provinces in Canada. Alberta has the most affordable at 181.1 cents per litre, while B.C. has the most expensive at 204.8 cents per litre. The city with the highest average price in Canada is Vancouver, B.C., at 221.5 cents per litre, while Melfort, Saskatchewan boasts the cheapest fuel at 159.9 cents per litre.
Meanwhile, De Haan says plans for a cross-border pipeline project, involving Canada and the United States, could certainly bolster the price of Canadian crude oil. He notes Canadian oil producers are probably really excited to be able to connect more of the U.S. with new pipelines.
“Eventually, there is the possibility that those pipelines could extend all the way down to the Gulf Coast, allowing Canadian oil producers more availability to export their products overseas,” he adds.