Tom Oldfield
• Betting Analyst
22+ years betting experience
Updated:
May 24, 2026 , 11:20 AM ET
• 4 min read
The early signs point to the Atlanta Dream as true title contenders, and they’ll add to their win tally today against the Phoenix Mercury.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Allisha Gray (15) controls the ball during the game between the Wings and the Dream.
It’s still early, but if anything, the Atlanta Dream have strengthened their title credentials through the first two weeks — and that spells trouble for the Phoenix Mercury in today’s matchup.
Atlanta can move to a league-best 4-1 with a victory here, and my Mercury vs Dream predictions signal home cooking at Gateway Center, powered by Allisha Gray’s dynamic scoring.
Read on for my WNBA picks and betting tips ahead of this May 24 matchup.
Mercury vs Dream prediction
Mercury vs Dream best bet: Dream -5.5 (-115)
The Atlanta Dream entered the 2026 season believing Angel Reese was the missing piece for their championship charge, and they’re backing up that bold talk.
Atlanta has covered the spread in its last three outings, and I’m buying into the hosts’ athleticism this afternoon against the Phoenix Mercury.
The advantage will be most evident on the defensive end, where Atlanta allows the lowest 3-point percentage in the league (26%) and is well-placed to turn off the water on a Mercury offense that attempts 24 triples per game.
COVERS INTEL: Atlanta carries a rebounding advantage into every game – the Dream lead the WNBA with 42.5 rebounds per game and give up the third-fewest boards, tilting the possession battle in their favor.
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Mercury vs Dream same-game parlay
When it comes to the offensive end of the floor, Allisha Gray is the head of the snake for Atlanta, and she’s poured in 24+ points in three of her four outings this year. Even in a balanced attack that also features Reese, Rhyne Howard, and Jordin Canada, Gray has a path to 18-20 shots.
I’ll pair that with the Dream moneyline, with the hosts coming off a 16-6 SU record at Gateway Center in 2025 and the Mercury dealing with a hangover from last year’s Finals run.
The Over also offers nice value here. It’s 9-1 in Phoenix’s past 10 games, including the visitors’ last five contests, and Atlanta is fresh off shooting 55% from the field against the Dallas Wings last time out.
Mercury vs Dream SGP (+470)
Dream moneyline
Allisha Gray Over 19.5 points
Over 168.5
Mercury vs Dream first basket scorer: Kahleah Copper (+500)
With lots of mouths to feed in the Dream offense, I’m pivoting to one of the Mercury’s most willing shooters. Kahleah Copper is only shooting 34% from the field so far this year, but that hasn’t discouraged her — with 75 shots across her past four games.
I see Phoenix trying to get her free early in this one, and the visitors may have more success attacking on the perimeter than venturing into the paint.
Copper dropped in the first basket in the Mercury’s loss to the Los Angeles Sparks on Thursday and scored her team’s first four points against the Toronto Tempo earlier in the week.
Tom Oldfield’s 2026 Transparency Record
Best bet: 5-4, +0.70 units
SGP: 2-7, +0.75 units
First basket: 1-8, -2.0 units
Mercury vs Dream odds
Spread: Mercury +5.5 | Dream -5.5
Moneyline: Mercury +180 | Dream -220
Over/Under: Over 168.5 | Under 168.5
Mercury vs Dream trend
The Mercury are 2-8 SU in their past 10 games, dating back to last season. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Mercury vs Dream
Location
Gateway Center Arena, College Park, GA
Date
Sunday, May 24, 2026
Tip-off
3:00 p.m. ET
TV
AZ Family Sports, Peachtree Sports Network
Mercury vs Dream latest injuries
Mercury: Monique Akoa Makani G (Questionable), Sami Whitcomb G (Out).
Dream: Brionna Jones F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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