Javed Mirza, Technical Strategist at Raymond James, shares his outlook on Technical Analysis.
Javed Mirza, Technical Strategist, Raymond James
Focus: Technical analysis
Top picks: CT REIT, CES Energy Solutions, Capstone Copper
MARKET OUTLOOK:
Four developing technical negatives suggest that the reward/risk ratio at current levels is poor, and that an intermediate-term (one to three month) equity market corrective phase is attempting to take hold. We view an intermediate-term correction as an opportunity to add exposure as our longer-term cycle work strongly suggests a new four-year cycle (three-to-five-year cyclical bull market) is underway.
A new four-year cycle would support adding equity exposure to leadership within the more cyclically oriented areas of the market and should have upside, by time, into H2 2027/H1 2028. The following technical negatives suggest that investors should put risk control levels in place.
Short-term price momentum weakening:
The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 recently triggered new daily “mechanical sell” signals indicating short-term price momentum is weakening.
Negative seasonality looming:
Seasonality on the Volatility Index (VIX) supports an increase in volatility from August – October. An increase in volatility is typically a headwind for equity markets.
Global equity markets weakening:
Global equity indices are showing signs of deteriorating relative performance after leading to the upside from April – June. That’s after most global equity indices recently scored new all-time price highs consistent with a new four-year cycle taking hold.
Sentiment approaching bullish extremes:
Sentiment indicators recently approached extremes consistent with prior intermediate-term (one to three month) corrective phases.
TOP PICKS:
Javed Mirza’s Top Picks: CT Real Estate Investment Trust, CES Energy Solutions & Capstone Copper Javed Mirza, Technical Strategist at Raymond James, shares his top stock picks to watch in the market.
CT Real Estate Investment Trust (CRT-U TSX)
CES Energy Solutions (CEU TSX)
Capstone Copper (CS TSX)
DISCLOSUREPERSONALFAMILYPORTFOLIO/FUNDCRT-U TSXNNNCEU TSXNNNCS TSXNNN
PAST PICKS: October 17, 2024
Javed Mirza’s Past Picks: Parkland, Gibson Energy & West Fraser Timber Javed Mirza, Technical Strategist at Raymond James, discusses his past stock picks and how they’re doing in the market today.
Parkland (PKI TSX)
Then: $35.33
Now: $38.57
Return: 9%
Total Return: 12%
Gibson Energy (GEI TSX)
Then: $23.88
Now: $25.54
Return: 7%
Total Return: 12%
West Fraser Timber (WFG TSX)
Then: $134.69
Now: $102.24
Return: -24%
Total Return: -23%
Total Return Average: 0%
DISCLOSUREPERSONALFAMILYPORTFOLIO/FUNDPKI TSXNNNGEI TSXNNNWFG TSXNNN