Staff Grade: B+, Reader Grade: B+
On March 6, the Senators were sitting four points out of the second wildcard spot with 21 games remaining to try and make up the gap. To that end, Steve Staios made a trade with the Los Angeles Kings, swapping third round picks and sending Buffalo’s second round pick, acquired in the Dylan Cozens – Josh Norris trade, for Warren Foegele, who, up to that point, was having a major letdown season.
After a career year in 2024-25, Foegele crashed and burned in his second season in LA, declining from 24 goals to 7 goals and posting his worst underlying numbers since his rookie season. He was a buy-low candidate, and it was hoped that he could regain some of his scoring and play driving ability playing on a much better team, unfortunately those numbers actually got worse after his trade to Ottawa.
Once he came over, Foegele bounced between the third and fourth lines, replacing Nick Cousins one the line with Shane Pinto and Michael Amadio for periods of time, especially during the playoffs. His most common linemates, playing over 100 minutes with both, were Lars Eller and Fabian Zetterlund. Interestingly, both Eller and Zetterlund performed much better once Foegele was taken off of their line. Despite being on a strong possession team, Foegele posted a CF% of 43.42 through the 21 games he played with the Senators, a 6% drop in his CF% over his numbers with the Kings.
On the defensive side of the puck, Foegele often made costly turnovers and was -11 on giveaways ands takeaways in 21 games and was often chasing the play in the defensive zone. Foegele was a drag on every line he played on this season and was easily the worst Senators skater in expected goals at five on five, according to Hockeyviz
Foegele is a great example of the contrasts that can happen between the eye test and the underlying numbers. On the ice, he looked like a strong and defensively responsible forward, who contributed some timely goals, as shown by the sterling grades he received from both the Silver Seven staff and readers. The reality of the situation is that he was a drag on his linemates, who all played better without him than with him and his play cratered from a middle six forward to a barely acceptable fourth liner.
There are some factors that could contribute to Foegele rebounding next season, first and foremost is his age; he just turned 30 years old on April 1st, there is a solid chance he can regain at least some of his ability. His style of play is also physical but not super griding, meaning a rapid physical decline may be unlikely. Regardless, there is only one year left on Foegele’s current contract, paying him $3.5 M, which would be a solid deal if he can rebound to even half the player he has been over the last half decade.
Foegele’s grade does not reflect the quality of his play with the Senators this past season but there is hope that his struggles in 2025-26 is an anomaly and he will return to his middle six form. Having a great season next year will be important not only for the Sens much needed progression up the standings and also for Foegele’s next contract negotiation.