This week, the Edmonton Oilers shuffled the hockey operations staff, increasing the profile of the team’s analytics department. Michael Parkatti, hired in 2023, received a new title in the management tweaks. He’s now vice president of analytics and technology, a vague description but one that suggests a higher profile in important areas.

The Oilers were late adopters of “fancy stats,” so any sign of progress should be considered a positive. General manager Stan Bowman, who has been on the job for almost two full years, has delivered an uneven performance in procurement.

How much has analytics aided Bowman? What about the acquisitions? Is analytics making things better? Here’s a look.

Big deals

I’m counting any trade from August 2024 through today involving a player with a cap hit over $2 million AAV as a major deal. Nine deals fit the description.

DateDeal

Aug 18, 2024

Dealt Cody Ceci for Ty Emberson

Aug 20, 2024

Dealt Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway

Mar 4, 2025

Acquired Trent Frederic

Mar 6, 2025

Acquired Jake Walman

June 25, 2025

Dealt Evander Kane

July 1, 2025

Dealt Viktor Arvidsson

Dec 12, 2025

Acquired Tristan Jarry

Mar 2, 2026

Acquired Connor Murphy

Mar 4, 2026

Acquired Jason Dickinson

Bowman was hired on July 24, 2024, and 20 days later, the St. Louis Blues signed Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway to offer sheets. By the time Bowman made the formal trade with the Blues on Aug. 20, he had acquired Ty Emberson and Vasily Podkolzin (more on him below) as replacements. There’s no way an analytics department would recommend the deal as it went down, and it remains curious why the Oilers didn’t match on Holloway. His AAV ($2.29 million) was far easier to fold into the Edmonton roster than the Broberg ($4.58 million AAV) deal from St. Louis.

As a deadline rental, Jake Walman was top drawer. He owned a 54 percent goal share during the long 2025 playoff run for the Oilers and delivered 1.3 points per 60 (both numbers at five-on-five). Trent Frederic was acquired while still injured, and although he owned a 58 percent goal share at five-on-five, his line didn’t move the needle much offensively. The 2026 deadline deals for Connor Murphy and Jason Dickinson had similar results to the Walman acquisition over a much shorter period of playoff games. The only downbeat on these deals was the price paid.

The Tristan Jarry trade was made under the stress of a season that appeared to be on the verge of spiralling out of control. Edmonton’s No. 1 goalie, Stuart Skinner, ran hot and cold while the team couldn’t put a winning streak together. In acquiring Jarry, Edmonton didn’t upgrade to the point where the position was sealed tight. Both Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn at The Athletic panned the deal at the time. Quoting Goldman about Jarry: “As much as his value has rebounded so far this regular season — with a .909 save percentage and GSAx of 9.09 — this move is incredibly risky. And the Oilers had to give up Kulak and a second-rounder to pull it off.”

Taken as a group, it’s impossible to suggest the analytics were in favour of the deals with the Blues or the Penguins. A more reasonable conclusion is that Bowman ignored the recommendations and proceeded based on his own reading of the players. Analytics may have contributed to the Walman, Murphy and Dickinson trades.

The takeaway here is that Bowman didn’t trust the math on most of the big deals, and the result was pain.

Depth deals

The lower-risk deals since Bowman’s arrival have some nice analytics upswing to them. Podkolzin and Emberson were early pickups of young players who had shown signs of responsible play and some offensive ability. Podkolzin has emerged as a feature player and found a home on Leon Draisaitl’s wing. Although the organization would be better off with Podkolzin and Holloway, Bowman made an astute deal in acquiring the Russian winger from the Vancouver Canucks.

Analytics were onside with Podkolzin from his early days in the NHL. In an April 2023 article at The Athletic, Harman Dayal wrote: “Podkolzin’s work rate, length, defensive care and disruptiveness have all hinted at a player who should excel as a shutdown winger and on the penalty kill.” The top public-facing analytics writers, such as Dayal, saw Podkolzin’s potential early on.

The trade of blue-chip prospects with the Tampa Bay Lightning in the summer of 2025 saw Sam O’Reilly sent away and Ike Howard acquired. Underlying numbers would support a trade for a winger with top-end scoring potential for a centre likely to top out as a middle-six option, but the trade looked like a coin flip at the time and remains one now.

The deals for Connor Ingram, Spencer Stastney and Colton Dach are all defensible by math in one way or another. Math loves Bowman’s smaller deals.

Free-agent signings

The Oilers remain caught in an outrageous cycle of free-agent contracts that combine overpaying in AAV, gifting no-movement clauses and running three years past a reasonable length. From the Milan Lucic signing in July 2016 through the Walman signing in October 2025 (seven years, $7 million AAV), the organization rarely signs a contract that could be endorsed by math across all aspects of the deal.

Since Bowman arrived in the summer of 2024, free-agent contracts that looked good then and now include Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm and Josh Samanski. Contracts that are too long, too rich, and or too much no-movement include Walman, Frederic and Andrew Mangiapane.

Bowman hasn’t been as reckless as Peter Chiarelli in 2016 (Lucic) or Ken Holland in 2022 (Jack Campbell), but the Frederic deal breaks many of the rules analytics has in place. A long-term deal for a third-line player is a bad idea, and the no-movement clause restricts Bowman and future Oilers general managers through 2033. No publicly available model endorses this kind of management behaviour.

Bowman’s work in this area hasn’t overwhelmed the roster, but he hasn’t enjoyed much room to wheel in terms of cap dollars until this summer. Fans should watch the July 1 activity closely. There’s a mountain of evidence to suggest the Oilers don’t know how to play the market and don’t pay heed to the reason analytics would bring to blockbuster deals or signings.

Bottom line

Bowman spoke highly of Parkatti in the hours after the announcement of an increased role for the team’s top analytics expert. Fans can conclude that smaller trade acquisitions are at the heart of the success enjoyed by the two offices of hockey ops.

There’s not much evidence that the club values math highly in the big trades, and that’s something the organization will need to be mindful of in the days to come.

There is an easing of free-agent reliance during Bowman’s run in Edmonton. That said, this summer will be a true test for the team. If fans hear names such as Jordan Kyrou and Michael DiPietro in play, they should take heart.

For the Oilers, having access to valuable analytics is an outstanding tool, but only if it is used by the manager. It does not replace the eye test, but can inform and help avoid disastrous trades and contracts. Taken at face value, the news this week is encouraging. The proof will begin to make itself known in the next 90 days.