The Edmonton Oilers’ offseason received a jolt on Thursday after an article from Mark Spector at Sportsnet outlined that the Oilers and veteran defenceman Darnell Nurse are reaching a crossroads that will, sooner or later, see a parting of ways.
Nurse’s contract with a $9.25 million cap hit that expires in the summer of 2030 is the pressure point for the organization. Any trade will need Nurse’s approval, and that may mean a delay of one year, but the die is cast, and the breach is public as of Thursday.
The backstory on Nurse in Edmonton
When Nurse arrived as an NHL defenceman, the future looked bright. He and fellow rookies Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl all played their first full season in 2015-16. Nurse played a feature role immediately, which was unusual for a rookie defender. His speed, ability to recover quickly and range of skills made him an instant favourite with the coaching staff. The fans loved his physicality, and his fights were often short and unanimous victories. Despite some chaos, he looked like a young player with room to grow.
The decade did not roll out as expected.
Part of his early progress through the system came due to injury. That meant he was accruing tenure at a rapid clip. Aided by Oscar Klefbom’s career-ending injury and a contract signed by Seth Jones of the Chicago Blackhawks in July 2021 that reset the bar for players of this type, Nurse landed one of the richest contracts in NHL history for a two-way defenceman.
It was an overpay. Fans and media have discussed how much excess is in the contract, but it is enough to make Nurse the centre of attention every summer since then. When the Oilers need cap room for free-agent signings and trades, Nurse’s name appears immediately.
The math on Nurse in Edmonton
The Oilers have relied heavily on Nurse over the years, and in big game situations. Puck IQ has tracked Nurse’s minutes versus elite opponents for his entire career. Nurse’s rank among Oilers defencemen in the toughest situations in the game has always been near the top.
Yearmins v elitesRankGoal Pct
2015-16
408
2
63
2016-17
162
6
47
2017-18
539
1
56
2018-19
526
2
49
2019-20
482
1
58
2020-21
429
1
51
2021-22
584
1
55
2022-23
529
1
56
2023-24
427
3
43
2024-25
356
4
55
2025-26
451
3
46
All numbers five-on-five, via Puck IQ
During his career with the Oilers, Nurse has finished outside the top four among defencemen once. That came in 2016-17, a season in which he was injured and played in 43 games.
For the rest of his career, Nurse has played a feature role. He has finished with a handsome goal share against elites in most of those years, although well under 50 percent in two of the past three seasons.
Taken as a whole, Nurse’s Oilers career has to be considered a success against elite competition. The biggest question for a potential trade partner: Can he recover from his recent downturn in performance?
What happens next?
Nurse needs to agree to any deal, as he has a full no-movement clause. It will ease to a 10-team no-trade list one year from now, but the player holds the cards this summer. Nurse has been chasing the Stanley Cup for over a decade with McDavid, Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. One can never be sure, but there’s a good chance he will decline waiving and return in the fall.
If he does agree to move, Nurse will have a great deal of control over his destination. Since his being dealt has been the topic of conversation since he signed this deal in August 2021, Oilers fans have amassed a long list of candidates. The Toronto Maple Leafs have been mentioned often; it’s close to home, and the Maple Leafs have a veteran defenceman who might be playing in a new NHL city soon. Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas was Nurse’s GM in Sault Ste. Marie during his junior years with the Greyhounds. His coach in the Soo, Sheldon Keefe, is the head coach of the New Jersey Devils.
What should fans expect the Oilers to get for Nurse?
There are two keys to the deal from an Edmonton point of view: offloading at least some of the cap burden and receiving a useful player in return. Offloading all of the $9.25 million cap hit with no money coming back is an unlikely option. Expect a veteran player with an outsized contract to arrive as part of the return. A player like Dylan Larkin, who has requested a trade from the Detroit Red Wings, would be an attractive target for general manager Stan Bowman.
Nurse has value, although the erosion in performance over two of the last three seasons versus elites will be part of the consideration for any team interested in trading for him.
Who’s to blame?
In the fall of 2015, the Oilers sent Nurse to the AHL Bakersfield Condors. He remained there for just nine games, as injuries in Edmonton forced a recall. He’s been in the NHL since, often playing in the top four and often against the toughest competition available. It’s possible that more time in the AHL would have helped Nurse in his development. That quick transition may have impacted his career in a material way.
Some defencemen gain five years’ experience while others gather one year’s experience five times. In Nurse’s case, his enormous physical ability (he’s a fantastic athlete) meant feature time with the Oilers, even though chaos was part of his defensive game. There were flaws, but the organization couldn’t find (or couldn’t bring itself) to move away from Nurse as a feature player.
There was one other important factor: McDavid. Throughout his career, Nurse is 647-656 at five-on-five for a 49.6 percent goal share. That includes a 55 percent goal share (280-231) with McDavid. The captain floats all boats. Away from McDavid, Nurse is 46 percent (367-425).
Against the backdrop of a contract that includes a $9.25 million cap hit for the next four seasons, the away-from-McDavid numbers are stark. It will mean any return for Nurse will be disappointing for many Oilers fans. The offseason just got more interesting.