We at Sherdog remain
constantly active for major events, such as the regular
in-depth “Shillan & Duffy” preview show and the “Sheehan Show” for
all sorts of related matters including betting. With those official
sources for picks handled, we would like to take the edge off here
and get a bit lighter with our breakdowns.

The industry of sports betting is exploding before our very eyes,
with billions of dollars pumping in since legalization stateside.
Oftentimes, those driving the lines are right on the money with
their openings, valuations and analyses. Occasionally, they are way
off, or otherwise merit some additional conversation. That is where
we come in with this reinvigorated series of Prime Picks. Before we
dive into the ultra Ultimate Fighting Championship card awaiting us
at the White House, we need to set something straight regarding a
boxing match coming soon. Try it out.

Fury vs. Hall

After duking it out with Hafthor Bjornsson, Eddie Hall
was convinced he had completed his sidequests. Like most
retirements and “I’m done” declarations surrounding combat sports,
it unsurprisingly did not stick. Granted, the specific designation
of the match is what we want to raise here, in this
betting-slash-gripes column. It is hard to say exactly how long
Hall vs. Tommy Fury was set as an exhibition, but given that it is
playing out on Misfits Boxing, it could not likely hope for much
more. In fact, BoxRec even has a specific designation for
these matches, “MF-pro” and “MF-ex” depending on which one
applies.

The reason we wish to raise this before even touching on the

UFC White House card that is looming large like the Sword of
Damocles is that there are some issues sure to come up regarding
Misfits Boxing, and there already have been.
Mix in actual professional fights every now and then, and it gets
understandably hazy. How else can one grow the drama exponentially?
Sports betting.

The classification of a bout is crucial in determining the betting
options at our disposal, much less if we can even bet in the first
place. As of Thursday, multiple outlets are now noting that
Fury-Hall is an exhibition, and not even something that will go on
the MF “pro” records. On BetUS, individuals can still place bets on
the fight, even if it is listed as a “HeavyWeight Exibition Fight”
on that service, because it doesn’t hurt to have another set of
eyes on your work, guys. Betting on an exhibition is a fool’s
errand, and retired boxer Carl Froch in an interview with Hard Rock
Bet even suggested the match may be pre-arranged. While he did
not go so far as to say it would be an outright shoot, Froch felt
comfortable enough to remark, “Maybe they have had a little
handshake to have a little spar and have a bit of fun.” All this to
say: stay away from these “influencer” matches at all costs from a
betting perspective.White House prop bets

And here we thought we’d have a pick listed in this space,
especially since the prior spot was instead a conversation about
influencer boxing. Many sportsbooks have offered event-level prop
bets for the White House card, with
BetOnline.ag offering some of the most baffling options
available. If you are willing to take a stab into the unknown—after
all, how can one tape study the number of times that commentator
Joe Rogan says the word “bro” during the main event (over 3.5 is
+130, under 3.5 is -170)?

There are currently 62 prop options outside of the normal course of
combat for this event on that book alone, and we will stick that
list for the sake of discussion. The first is a one-sided option on
whether Sean
O’Malley will dye his hair red, white and blue—as of Thursday
afternoon, it was recently colored to pink and purple—at a
staggering -2000. You can’t bet against it, unfortunately. The
final prop on the list? Whether the President will do a fist pump
during the broadcast. Yes is -150, No +110 on the comeback, if you
for some reason want to push money on a line that may have a limit
and includes the following stipulation: “Dancing does not count.
Fist pump a fighter that is competing in event, from start of 1st
walkout until end”—did they mean “fist bump?” Pumping and bumping
are very different things.

In the sea of these silly lines like a bald eagle landing inside
the Octagon—on a brief search to make sure that these majestic
birds are not native to the DMV region, the first option for before
even finishing the query provided this: “do bald eagles eat
humans?” No, intrepid readers, we humans are not prey to the bald
eagle. Moving onto lines that matter, how many fighters will curse
in their post-fight interviews? At the over 1.5 of -130, we think
that is a surprisingly profitable line. The winner of Hokit vs.
Lewis alone is guaranteed profanity, and then toss in a
non-English-first-language winner like Ilia
Topuria or Mauricio
Ruffy, and we have f-bombs aplenty.

The line for a winning fighter to call out Conor
McGregor in their post-fight interview sits at +200, and with
three possible options to invoke his name, we expect it now that
he’s scheduled to complete next month. Finally, the last prop we
wish to raise is the number of appearances of President Donald
Trump on the broadcast. The over is 7.5, meaning that it hits if we
see his face on eight separate occasions from the start of the
first fight to the final winner’s announcement. Seven does not. At
-175, smash that over as hard as you can: this is his birthday
after all, and a camera focused solely on him is all-but guaranteed
for this gala event.

A knockout of an accumulator (+155)
Ilia
Topuria vs. Justin
Gaethje ends by KO, TKO or DQ (-325) Josh Hokit
vs. Derrick
Lewis ends by KO, TKO or DQ (-225) Mauricio
Ruffy vs. Michael
Chandler ends by KO, TKO or DQ (-285)
Leave it to a reborn betting odds series to leave actual fight
picks until the very final segment. The other notes were too
important to mention and too significant to leave for the final
portion, as they might go unnoticed. It’s time for some Freedom 250
action. Freedom 35, this
ain’t…although if you read the court filing from the Public
Integrity Project, you might disagree. With any luck, the
matchmakers have drawn this card up to be a mighty violent one.

Starting from the top, we have a solid three-piece of reasonable
methods of victory for a trio of bouts on the lineup. All three
look like on paper they are destined to end via strikes, and we
prognosticate ahead of this special showcase that a plus-money play
on it is a better option than diving into moneylines and drilling
down that way. The result means that either person can score it,
which is crucial given that the six men involved all carry serious
knockout power and the penchant to put it on display.

Of the three, the one with the widest betting line might actually
be the one most likely to play spoiler. Sure, Topuria can crack,
but half his wins have come by submission. Expect Gaethje to walk
Topuria down and slug it out with him, and the intense collisions
should result in one man face down, hopefully clubbed and not
subbed. As for Hokit vs. Lewis, c’mon man. What more do you need
from these two? Finally, a man in Ruffy with a 92% knockout rate
against a slowing 40-year-old in Chandler who leads with his chin
and has already been knocked out a few times in the Octagon? You
should be able to carry this ticket all the way to the bank.