US stock futures fell Monday morning while crude oil prices surged as investors weighed uncertainty over Iran and prepared for a pivotal inflation report later this week.
Futures linked to the S&P 500 (ES=F) slipped 0.4%, while contracts tied to the Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) lost 0.6%. Dow futures (YM=F) declined 0.3%.
Energy markets climbed with instability driving oil higher. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) crude jumped nearly 3% to trade near $78 a barrel, while Brent (BZ=F) crude climbed above $81 as traders assessed the risk of further disruption in the Middle East.
Market sentiment was rattled after President Donald Trump warned Iran of potential additional military action unless Tehran moved to rein in allied groups operating in Lebanon. The comments came as Vice President JD Vance opened a new round of diplomatic talks with Iranian representatives in Switzerland.
Attention now turns to Thursday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Economists expect core PCE, which excludes food and energy costs, to show a modest acceleration from April levels.
The report arrives just days after the Fed struck a more hawkish tone, prompting traders to reassess the path of interest rates. Markets have increasingly pushed forward expectations for the next rate hike, making this week’s inflation data a critical test for investors looking for clues on whether price pressures remain stubborn enough to warrant additional tightening.
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Asian markets trended upwards as US-Iran peace talks ‘progress’
Reuters reports:
Asian share markets swung higher on Monday as Iranian negotiators said progress had been made in peace talks with the United States, helping calm fears the process was breaking down.
Officials from Qatar and Pakistan also released a statement saying the first session of talks had concluded and progress was made on a roadmap to reach a final deal in 60 days.
Earlier, U.S. President Donald Trump had threatened fresh attacks on Iran as Vice President JD Vance met Iranian officials for the first talks under an interim peace deal.
Japan’s Nikkei (^N225) rose 1.8%, having climbed almost 8% last week to all-time highs. South Korea’s red-hot Kospi (^KS11) added 0.6%, after surging more than 11% last week on demand for semiconductor stocks.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.8%, while Chinese blue chips rose 1.6%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (^HSI) fell 0.7%.
Oil rises as US-Iran peace talks falter after strikes between Israel and Lebanon
Bloomberg reports:
Oil gained after President Donald Trump threatened strikes on Iran if Hezbollah keeps attacking Israel, raising concerns about progress for peace talks between Washington and Tehran.
Brent (BZ=F) crude climbed as much as 2.2% at the open to $82.30 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) advanced above $78. Negotiations got off to a rocky start on Sunday after Iranian media reported the Islamic Republic halted talks in Switzerland after Trump’s threat, but people familiar with the matter said they continued. Tehran accused Israel of violating a truce in Lebanon.
The high-level meeting in the Swiss resort of Bürgenstock is happening at the start of a 60-day window for negotiations, after Trump signed a memorandum of understanding last week which began the process of deescalation. Despite Iran claiming to have closed the Strait of Hormuz again, millions of barrels of oil continued to flow through the waterway over the weekend.
Other energy commodities also gained on Monday, with benchmark European natural gas prices advancing as much 3.9%. A fifth of global liquefied natural gas was exported through Hormuz prior to the start of the war in late February. US gasoline futures climbed along with diesel.