As drivers venture to California’s “Wine Country” for Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway (3:30 p.m. ET, TNT, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), they will begin battle in the second installment of the In-Season Challenge.
The challenge, which pits 32 drivers against one another in a head-to-head, bracket-style format, returns for a second season after Ty Gibbs became the inaugural winner of the $1M prize in 2025.
While the five-race slate favors some drivers more than others, there are a few who could fly under the radar and make some noise. With that in mind, here are three drivers who could surprise in the 2026 In-Season Challenge.
No. 24 seed Zane Smith
As versatile as No. 9 seed Carson Hocevar — Smith’s first-round opponent — is at most tracks, he has not figured out road courses yet early in his career. While he was in contention at Naval Base Coronado until race winner Corey Heim spun him while battling for second with 12 laps remaining, he only has an average finish of 24.5 at Sonoma.
Smith, meanwhile, was fourth at San Diego and has arguably been the quickest Ford on most tracks this season. He only has a best finish of 16th in three starts at the Northern California road course, but he rolled off 12th in his only prior start there with Front Row Motorsports last season.
Should he advance past Hocevar, Smith would face the winner of the Daniel Suarez-Todd Gilliland matchup in the first race at Chicagoland Speedway since 2019 on July 5. Suarez is the better seed and won at Charlotte on Memorial Day Weekend, but it would not be a shock if Smith finds himself in the quarterfinals.
No. 23 seed Ross Chastain
Chastain only has four top 10s all season, but two of them have come each of the last two weeks at Pocono (eighth) and San Diego (seventh). The momentum could easily carry over another week with four top 10s in his six starts at Sonoma.
He is set to face the 10-seed Christopher Bell in the first round, but Bell is still recovering from a fractured left wrist and swapped out with O’Reilly Auto Parts Series driver Brent Crews during the first caution at Coronado.
Bell has a respectable 14.8 average finish at Sonoma and is an underrated road course driver. At the same time, there is no guarantee that he completes every lap once again, leaving the door open for Chastain to advance.
He could potentially face the seven-seed Chris Buescher in the second round, a daunting task against one of the sport’s most consistent drivers. However, Chastain should not be counted out to at least compete for a quarterfinal spot.
No. 14 seed Shane van Gisbergen
Van Gisbergen finds himself on the outside of the provisional 16-driver “Chase” field after getting caught up in the Stage 2 multicar crash at Coronado, but a golden opportunity presents itself on Sunday.
He led 97 of the 110 laps from the pole in a dominant win last season and has won seven of his 15 road course starts. His first-round opponent, No. 19 seed Ryan Preece, has three straight top-20 finishes at Sonoma, but this matchup should be van Gisbergen’s for the taking.
With no more road courses the rest of the season, Sonoma is easily the biggest race of van Gisbergen’s career so far. Assuming he advances, the return to Chicagoland and North Wilkesboro, plus the unpredictability of EchoPark Speedway, could lend itself to a deep run from van Gisbergen if he avoids trouble.