One of the most important statistics in Fantasy football is one that doesn’t even generate any points – targets. The majority of Fantasy football leagues won’t give points for targets, but without a target, there’s no reception, receiving yards, or touchdowns, and a look at last year’s target leaders was a strong indicator of the top receivers in Fantasy football. Seven of the top 10 receivers in Fantasy football ranked in the top 10 in the NFL in targets, and nine of the 10 most targeted receivers finished in the top 12 in Fantasy football scoring in PPR formats. Some of those didn’t play in elite offenses, such as Malik Nabers, Garrett Wilson and Drake London, but given their talent and lack of competition within their teams for targets, they each returned huge scores for Fantasy football players. 

Where should they fall in 2025 Fantasy football rankings, and who are potential 2025 Fantasy football sleepers at receiver set for a significant target share? Half of the top-10 scoring receivers in Fantasy football came from teams that ranked in the bottom eight in scoring offense, so you can find elite Fantasy football production even from struggling offenses, which is something to remember when forming a 2025 Fantasy football strategy. Before finalizing your 2025 Fantasy football draft strategy, be sure to check out the 2025 Fantasy football rankings and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Last year, the model accurately predicted that Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert would fall well short of his ADP (RB23). The result: A season after rushing for over 1,000 yards and scoring 21 total touchdowns despite sharing time with De’Von Achane, Mostert fell out of favor in Miami and finished as RB60 after managing only 439 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns.

The same model has a proven track record providing Fantasy football tips, identifying A.J. Brown as a sleeper in 2020, nailing Jonathan Taylor’s monstrous season in 2021 and correctly predicting C.J. Stroud would take a step back in 2024. Additionally, it’s called past Fantasy football sleepers like Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017. 

Now, SportsLine has simulated the entire NFL season 10,000 times and released its latest Fantasy football rankings 2025, along with plenty of sleepers, breakouts and busts. Head to SportsLine now to see them. 

Top 2025 Fantasy football busts

One of the 2025 Fantasy football busts the model is predicting: Bears quarterback Caleb Williams. He was the QB16 overall and QB24 on a points-per-game basis in Fantasy football last year, and the model views Williams as being overvalued in 2025 Fantasy football drafts. Williams was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft as one of the most-heralded rookie quarterbacks in recent years, which inflated his Fantasy football draft position. Many expected him to immediately perform in an offense with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze at wide receiver, but Williams ranked last of the 14 quarterbacks who started all 17 games last season with 3,541 passing yards in a disappointing rookie campaign.

Last year, many were enthralled by Williams from his college production and a strong set of receivers in Chicago. This year, it’s the perceived coaching upgrade with former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson taking over as Bears head coach that’s elevating Williams in 2025 Fantasy football drafts. Johnson helped turn around Jared Goff’s career, so there’s optimism he can do the same for Williams, but the second-year QB is being drafted as a top-12 Fantasy football quarterback despite last year’s struggles. Given the number of proven quarterbacks in the NFL, the model sees better options within the top 12 quarterbacks than Williams.

Another bust that SportsLine’s Fantasy football rankings 2025 have identified: Steelers running back Jaylen Warren. The Oklahoma State product spent the last two seasons behind Najee Harris on the depth chart, averaging 61.7 scrimmage yards per game. Warren has averaged 4.8 yards per carry in his career, but he has never averaged more than 8.8 carries per game in any of his three seasons.

While Harris is no longer on the roster, Warren’s workload might not increase significantly. Pittsburgh drafted Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson, who had more than 1,500 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns last season. Warren is being drafted before running backs like Zach Charbonnet, Najee Harris and Javonte Williams, but they are all available later in most Fantasy drafts. See which other Fantasy football busts 2025 to pick here.

How to find proven 2025 Fantasy football rankings

SportsLine is also fading one of the first five running backs off the board in early 2025 Fantasy football drafts. The model ranks this player falling outside the top 10 entirely and failing to live up to his first-round price tag. You can only see who it is, and the 2025 Fantasy football rankings for every player, at SportsLine.

So which 2025 Fantasy Football busts should you be steering clear of? And which first-round RB shockingly falls out of the top 10 of the positional rankings? Visit SportsLine now to get 2025 Fantasy Football cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that helped managers avoid a disastrous Raheem Mostert season in 2024.

2025 Fantasy football ADP

(PPR, via CBS)

1. Ja’Marr Chase (2.12)
2. Bijan Robinson (2.28)
3. Saquon Barkley (2.34)
4. Jahmyr Gibbs (4.78)
5. Derrick Henry (5.69)
6. Justin Jefferson (8.56)
7. Christian McCaffrey (10.12)
8. Josh Jacob (10.12)
9. CeeDee Lamb (11.12)
10. Josh Allen (11.31)