The 2026 NFL MVP conversation is already taking shape as one of the most debated storylines of the upcoming season, with fans and analysts split between two familiar names: Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
While Allen has been widely viewed as the early frontrunner since the offseason, a growing number of voices around the league are beginning to push back on that consensus.
Patrick and Brittany Mahomes have the best time of their life during a zoo visit with their kids
One of the most notable shifts came from former NFL quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who recently changed his stance on the MVP race during an appearance on The Rich Eisen Show.
Fitzpatrick believes Mahomes may actually have the stronger case heading into the season.
“To me, I’m looking at Mahomes,” Fitzpatrick said on The Rich Eisen Show. “I kind of think he’s the favorite in my mind to win MVP this year.”
He went on to explain that Mahomes’ offseason recovery and external doubts about his performance could serve as motivation.
“Because of the injury and the amount he has had to put into getting healthy this offseason,“ Fitzpatrick added.
“The last few years, doubt is starting to creep in; people are starting to talk about, ‘maybe he is not the top quarterback anymore? Yes, he has the rings, but look at these guys that have outplayed him the last few years.’
“I think there’s enough of a narrative there that’s going to drive him even more,” he explained.
“I do think sometimes, having to hit reset, the focus that he has put on rehabbing his body and getting ready, I see him as my favorite for MVP this season.”
Fitzpatrick’s comments are particularly striking given his previous stance in 2022, when he named Josh Allen his favorite quarterback in the league. His change of opinion reflects how quickly narratives can shift in a league driven by performance, perception, and momentum.
Why the MVP narrative is tilting toward Mahomes
Statistically and historically, Mahomes still presents one of the strongest resumes in modern NFL history. From 2018 to 2022, he established himself as one of the league’s most efficient passers, earning two MVP awards and multiple Super Bowl appearances.
Even during seasons where his efficiency dipped, his completion percentage remained above 62%, and his ability to perform in high-pressure moments never fully disappeared.
The rivalry between Mahomes and Allen has also shaped the AFC landscape since both became starters in 2018. Their head-to-head matchups remain tightly contested in the regular season, with Allen holding a slight edge there.
However, Mahomes has dominated the postseason meetings, winning all four playoff encounters between the two quarterbacks.
Career numbers also continue to favor Mahomes. He holds a higher completion rate (66.2% to Allen’s 64.0%), a stronger touchdown-to-interception ratio (267–85 compared to 220–94), and a higher passer rating overall. Add in three Super Bowl championships to Allen’s none, and Mahomes’ résumé remains difficult to ignore.
At the same time, Allen’s case is strengthened by perception and opportunity. Analysts like Mitch Morse have suggested that while Mahomes may ultimately have the more decorated career, Allen’s present moment could belong to him.
As Morse put it, “He’s going to win more Super Bowls, but I feel like it’s Josh Allen’s time.”
Team context also plays a role in the debate. Kansas City’s offensive uncertainty, including questions around its receiving corps, could place more pressure on Mahomes.
Meanwhile, Buffalo’s offense appears more stable, giving Allen a clearer structure to build MVP-level production.
Still, betting sentiment is beginning to shift, especially as Mahomes’ narrative evolves from dominance to redemption.
Whether that translates into another MVP award will depend on how both quarterbacks perform once the season begins, but for now, the conversation is far from settled.