It’s the first big day of the Tour de France–well, tbh, we’ve already seen lots of incredible stuff, but on Thursday, the peloton goes up the Col du Tourmalet. It’s going to be a day when only the best can hang on, and the race for the GC begins to shape itself.

Stage 6 of the Tour de France

UAE Emirates-XRG is expecting Jonas Vingegaard to make the first big move of the Tour de France in Thursday’s sixth stage, rather than seeing Tadej Pogačar light up the race himself. Which is usually what we see in races. UAE sets a blistering pace, someone like Isaac Del Toro do a final brutal pull, and Pogi goes nuclear, and no one can hang on.

Speaking to In de Leiderstrui, UAE’s Joxean Matxin said the team expects Visma–Lease a Bike to mix things up this time. It’s clear the Dane has arrived in France at peak form, no injuries or crashes have screwed up his prep. He had a dominant win at the Giro d’Italia, and for the first time in years, both he and the world champion are proper rivals at full strength.

“I think we’ll see an attack from Jonas Vingegaard there, to make the selection,” Matxin said. “It’s going to be an important climb.”

The climbs that will tenderize some legs first

The stage features the Col d’Aspin, followed by the Tourmalet before finishing uphill at Gavarnie-Gèdre. While many expect UAE to dictate the race after Pogačar’s aggressive opening week, Matxin suggested the Slovenian may instead wait for his rival to make the first move.

The team’s approach will depend on how the day unfolds. If dangerous riders get into the early breakaway, UAE could be forced to control the race. Otherwise, the Tourmalet will naturally reduce the group before the final climb.

“We have a plan every day, but it’s true that the plan isn’t set in stone,” Matxin said. “If Jonas suddenly loses teammates early, or if a dangerous GC rider is in the break, then you may have to change your approach.”

Adjusting the game plan on the fly

He also said UAE wants to avoid repeating scenarios from previous Grand Tours, where allowing the wrong rider too much freedom dramatically altered the general classification.

“If the plan changes and Tadej says halfway through the stage that he’s feeling great, then everything can change,” Matxin added. “Whether Tadej attacks or not also depends on the moment and on his own feelings.”

Matxin also downplayed any suggestion that stage 2 winner Isaac del Toro could become a second GC option despite his high overall placing.

“The Tour is only about overall victory for Tadej,” he said. “A GC result for Isaac isn’t an objective, although he’ll have an important role in the favourites’ group.”

Speaking of the GC, what about Uno-X Mobility’s Torstein Træen? He still holds a comfortable lead of more than seven minutes over Pogi and Vingegaard, and he’s a more than capable climber. The Norwegian could prove to be this Tour’s Claudio Chiappucci to Greg LeMond, much like the Italian did in the 1990 Tour de France. (The same one where Fenwick, Ont.’s Steve Bauer held yellow for 10 days.) In fact, it was the Tourmalet where LeMond finally managed to claw back time, finishing second behind a certain Miguel Indurain. But, Træen has shown before that he can hold his own on the biggest climbs in Grand Tours and other major stage races. So it should be interesting.

You can watch the race on Flobikes.com. Afterwards, be sure to check back with Canadian Cycling Magazine for a full report.