North Wilkesboro will host a true points race for the first time since 1996, in large part to Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s mission to preserve the once-abandoned short track. He gathered volunteers, cleared weeds and got the track in a type of working order before Marcus Smith reopened the facility in 2022. A year later, NASCAR brought the All-Star race to the track, and this Sunday comes an even bigger event.

Denny Hamlin (the current points winner) is the favorite, but Ryan Blaney (last week’s champ) and Christopher Bell (who won the All-Star race at North Wilkesboro in 2025) are close behind.

As always, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi answer our most pressing questions and make predictions about the upcoming race.

The Window World 450 at North Wilkesboro Speedway is Sunday at 7 p.m. ET on TNT, PRN and HBO Max.

Race winner odds for the Window World 450

It’s been 30 years since a points race was held at North Wilkesboro, but with modern cars and new track logistics, will this Sunday’s competition live up to the old-school, short-track expectations, or will the race look different now?

Jeff: Well, we’re about to find out. I’m a bit skeptical that a 450-lap points race is the right move for North Wilkesboro after last year’s All-Star Race was exciting for Next Gen Era short track standards (“North Wilkesboro, best short track on the schedule!” Bell said exuberantly after winning last year). Hopefully there will be enough tire wear to create passing opportunities on a long run, but short tracks haven’t been the best venues for great racing in this car’s lifespan (2022-present).

I’m not sure exactly what to expect, because sometimes when expectations are muted, a great race happens (and vice versa). We’ll have to see how much differently teams approach a points race versus the All-Star Race at the track.

Jordan: Even in its heyday, North Wilkesboro wasn’t necessarily an action-packed short track like Bristol or Martinsville, with races in North Carolina often featuring long green-flag runs and fewer theatrics compared to other similarly sized tracks. And when NASCAR returned in 2023, this proved to be the case again as what transpired on the track left much to be desired. Still, this is a classic venue with deep, rich ties to the sport’s roots, and it deserves a place on the Cup Series schedule. Just make sure to keep your expectations in check.

There are only four drivers left in the In-Season Challenge — Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott … and everyone’s favorite underdog Todd Gilliland. Does Gilliland have any chance at Wilkesboro to make it to the final and possibly take home $1 million by winning it all?

Jeff: He has a chance, but it mostly relies on Elliott either having a mechanical failure or getting caught in an incident. But Gilliland has finished ahead of Elliott in five of this season’s 20 races, so it’s possible.

Let’s look at the instances in which Gilliland has finished ahead of Elliott. At Charlotte and Michigan, Elliott crashed out, and Gilliland did not, so those were “gimmes.” Gilliland bested Elliott at the Watkins Glen road course and then was ahead on two short tracks: Phoenix, after Elliott was caught in multiple incidents and finished 23rd (Gilliland was 12th), and Bristol, when Gilliland finished sixth, scoring his lone top-10 finish of the season, while Elliott was 22nd after a late spin.

This is NASCAR, and unpredictable things happen all the time. Look at Ty Dillon making the finals last year. But on pure pace alone, Elliott should easily have it at North Wilkesboro.

Jordan: Gilliland’s best — maybe only — chance is if Elliott has some mechanical problem or gets in an accident, and it could happen. But barring either of these occurring, Elliott’s path to the final should be rather straightforward.

With wins no longer guaranteeing a playoff spot and a tight points battle, how worried should drivers, including Erik Jones, Shane Van Gisbergen and Joey Logano, be about a chaotic short track ruining their season?

Jeff: Well, you could look at it the other way as well: What opportunity does this present? Others could have problems as well, and if a driver has a good day, it could provide a great opportunity to take advantage. Of the three you named, Logano absolutely has to be viewing it that way the most. Team Penske (and Ford in general) has been off on intermediate tracks, but a short track should be a place where they can run well and contend for victories. If not, they’re in bigger trouble than we even realized. But Logano, who finished second in the All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro last year, is heading into Sunday with optimism.

Jordan: This stretch of upcoming races should be a boon for Logano’s Chase hopes with North Wilkesboro, Iowa, New Hampshire and Daytona some of his best tracks and where Team Penske has often been at its best the past few years. The three-time series champion needs every point he can get if he’s to continue his streak of qualifying for the Chase, which he’s done since 2018. If you’re Logano, you have to be feeling good about your chances to leapfrog into a Chase spot.

Hamlin, the points leader, is the favorite at North Wilkesboro. Do you agree with the sportsbooks that it’s Hamlin’s to lose, or are others in the field being disrespected?

Jeff: Ryan Blaney should be the favorite, not Hamlin (and I know the former is in some books). No one has been better than Blaney on short tracks over the past few years, and the statistics back it up.

Ryan Blaney is good at short tracks. pic.twitter.com/HlcqiKlN4B

— Daniel Céspedes (@_DanielCespedes) July 17, 2026

I get that Hamlin looks incredible on almost every type of track right now, but short tracks are a different ballgame than what we’ve seen lately; they bring more contenders into the picture.

Jordan: A case could be made for either Hamlin or Blaney, so it isn’t fair to label one the clear favorite over the other. Both are almost always strong on short tracks and are equally adept at managing their tires over long green-flag runs, which should serve them well Sunday. If you’re looking for an edge, Hamlin led three-quarters of the laps at Martinsville earlier this spring and finished second. While North Wilkesboro and Martinsville aren’t exactly the same, there are enough similarities between them to think Hamlin could replicate that past performance here.

On a related note, Hamlin is only leading the point standings by 24 points ahead of Tyler Reddick. Ryan Blaney is only 65 points out. At the end of the Cup Series (before the Chase), in what order do you see these drivers finishing, and does anyone else break into the top 3?

Jeff: Not to overhype this weekend, but North Wilkesboro will probably tell us a lot. It primarily comes down to whether Blaney will be his typically strong self on short tracks or whether Penske really is that off. Given the latter isn’t true, Blaney can absolutely make a charge, given North Wilkesboro, Iowa, Richmond and New Hampshire remain on the schedule before the Chase begins (plus he’ll be great at Daytona). Indianapolis is the only track where, on paper, Hamlin should have a significant advantage in speed.

I still see Hamlin winning the regular-season title, but Blaney could catch Reddick for second now (and who could have imagined Reddick finishing third in the regular season after the start he had!?).

Jordan: While Hamlin is the favorite to win the regular-season championship, don’t sleep on Blaney making a push to unseat him. Much like his Penske teammate Logano, this stretch of races provides a great opportunity for Blaney to score some massive points (and maybe some wins), further chipping down Hamlin’s lead. And should Blaney somehow take the regular-season crown, it would be a huge accomplishment considering what a performance deficit Penske and Ford have faced this season and what an advantage Toyota has held.

Which long shots do you think could win or finish among the top 10 this weekend?

Jeff: Given this is a short track, I’d never count out Josh Berry from putting it all together and having a great day. Berry is having an absolutely miserable season — he’s already lost his ride at the end of this season and is ahead of only two full-time drivers (rookie Connor Zilisch and the underfunded Cody Ware) in the points standings. In the last 13 races, Berry has finished better than 25th only one time (15th at Michigan). It could hardly be going worse.

And yet Berry has 11 of his 17 career top-10 finishes on tracks 1 mile or less in distance (North Wilkesboro is a 0.625-mile track). He won the All-Star Open while substituting for Alex Bowman at North Wilkesboro in 2023, so it’s not like he doesn’t know how to get around the place. If the Penske cars are strong on Sunday (Wood Brothers’ No. 21 is essentially a fourth Penske car), then Berry should be, too.

Jordan: Short tracks are Ryan Preece’s strong suit — he won the non-points Clash at quarter-mile Bowman Gray Stadium in February — so North Wilkesboro provides a good opportunity for the RFK Racing driver to earn his win in a points-paying Cup race. This probably explains why he was so confident about his chances when speaking to the media earlier this week.