Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
Scotiabank analyst Orest Wowkodaw described how miners separated themselves by operating efficiency during earnings season,
“We believe that the Q2/25 reporting season for the miners is best described by the title of the 1966 Clint Eastwood western “The Good, The Bad and The Ugly”. In one of the most volatile reporting seasons in recent memory, the market handsomely rewarded miners who simply met or in some cases beat consensus expectations, and who are on track to meet annual operating guidance (we highlight CS, HBM, and LUN for example). On the other hand, companies that missed expectations accompanied by negative guidance revisions were severely punished by investors (this includes CIA and TECK). This significant out-performance and under-performance among the equities in a flat commodity price environment serves to highlight the critical importance of basic execution … After reviewing risk-reward profiles and valuations, CCO, CS, and FCX are now top picks. We also highly recommend ALS, CIA, ERO, HBM, LUN, and TECK (see below for more TECK thoughts). Among the developers, we prefer ASCU, DML, FOM, IE, MOON, NXE, and OM”.
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BMO energy analyst Jeremy McCrea identified the stocks portfolio managers are buying,
“What ‘energy-weighted’ specialty funds/accounts are buying/selling. Typically, these funds are early movers and closer to company management including field-level operations. The top names held by these energy funds continue to be ARC, Tourmaline, Topaz, Whitecap (with NuVista new to the list vs. last quarter). 2. What were the best-performing E&P stocks in 2Q25; which institutional funds bought these names in the previous quarter, and what are these funds buying today? The best-performing names in 2Q25 were SDE (up 14 per cent), BIR (up 12 per cent), TVE (up 11 per cent), NVA (up 10 per cent), and AAV (up 9 per cent). If we look at the funds that had the foresight to buy these names before their run (i.e., in the previous quarter), these funds today are now buying Surge, Paramount, and Whitecap … Broad interest from a number of new accounts indicates a wider and likely growing appeal. Where there is a large breadth of new funds buying, it is usually a positive sign before larger AUM funds take on a position. We highlight the names that have seen the most ‘new buyers’. Names to highlight include Whitecap, Surge, and Topaz”
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BofA Securities chief U.S. equity and quant strategist Savita Subramanian sees cracks in the megacap leadership of U.S. markets,
“The last memorable Nifty 50 run (largest 50 stocks by mkt capitalization) was the 1990s lead up to the Tech Bubble. It was about 6 years long, and the outperformance vs. the S&P 500 index was 71ppt vs 73ppt since 2015. Today’s Nifty 50 is lower quality than most of the 1990s, sports average long-term growth expectations despite near record valuations. Tech is not the culprit – our sector-neutral and ex-Tech valuation analyses indicate a love for large. But the run may be done … August’s continued improvement [in broader earnings] is early confirmation of a change from Downturn to Recovery (two months make it official). In prior recoveries, the Nifty 50 lagged by -3.3ppt ann. with a paltry 36-per-cent hit rate. Recoveries saw 2 times PE expansion for the Not-So-Nifty 450 as the Nifty 50, and the Smallest 50 enjoyed 12ppt ann. alpha. History would suggest there is more to go in cap-weighted dominance. But if the Fed’s next move is a rate cut, and if the Regime indicator is shifting to a Recovery, we think the run may be closer to done”
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Bluesky post of the day:
One of my favorite tariff charts
Normally high prices are a sign of strong demand & induce manufacturing investment
Tariffs instead give you higher prices & lower investment—the worst of both worlds—because they’re a tax on capital goods & supply chains
— Joey Politano🏳️🌈 (@josephpolitano.bsky.social) August 18, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Diversion: “These Movies Have the Most Underrated Soundtracks of All Time” – MakeUseof