Shortly after pressing the right buttons in a 4-0 victory at the All-Star Game last week, Toronto Blue Jays manager John Schneider marveled at the quality of pitching options available to him.
“That’s the game now,” Schneider said. “Guys’ stuff is unbelievable.”
The pitchers from both leagues overwhelmed the hitters at the Midsummer Classic, combining for 27 strikeouts on a night in which many of the game’s elite arms did not take the mound. The evening served as further evidence that the state of major-league pitching in 2026 is quite strong. Trying to decide who is the best of the best, though, is not so easy.
For the past seven years, The Athletic has tried to do just that. We call it the Aces Project. Every spring, we gather a panel of 20 executives, scouts and analysts. We provide a list of pitchers and ask our respondents to rate them on the scouting scale from a No. 1 starter to a No. 5. For 2026, we had five pitchers qualify as an ace: Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Cristopher Sánchez. Both Skenes and Skubal were unanimous.
It is a fun exercise, but also an imperfect one. We can’t get to every pitcher. As a longstanding policy, we leave off players returning from major injury, which is why Philadelphia Phillies starter Zack Wheeler and New York Yankees starter Gerrit Cole, both former No. 1s in previous years, were not mentioned this spring. As the second half cranks into gear, we thought it would be worthwhile to highlight how some veterans from our list are performing and where some newcomers might fit into the bigger picture.
A quick refresher: we put the pitchers into tiers. Those are as follows:
TierScoreDescription
1 —The Inner Circle
100
The unanimous No. 1s.
2 — Aces
99.5-90
The pitchers you can trust all regular season and again in October.
3 — The Doorstep Knockers
89.5-80
The pitchers who fall just short of being aces.
4 — No. 2s and No. 3s
79.5-60
Those with lower ceilings, but still elevated floors. It should be noted — these guys are awesome at baseball.
5 — No. 4s and No. 5s
59.5-below
Eveyone else.
With that in mind, here are 21 pitchers who could experience some significant movement on the next edition of our Aces Project. We’ve listed each player’s 2026 score and ranking, followed by our prediction for our panel’s evaluation in 2027.
2026 Aces Project update: MLB insiders rank starting pitchers
Andy McCullough
The return of the king(s)
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PHI
NR
Tier 2
First half: 10-1, 2.13 ERA, 93 IP, 2.95 FIP, 10.5 K/9
Wheeler stored in a closet the rib that was removed during surgery to fix his thoracic outlet syndrome. He is pitching like the operation never even happened. He might be the best in the game. He is undoubtedly a No. 1. The only question is whether it will be unanimous among our panelists.
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NYY
NR
Tier 4
First half: 3-4, 4.04 ERA, 49 IP, 4.04 FIP, 8.6 K/9
In his first months back from Tommy John surgery, Cole is showing some of the rust typical for those who undergo elbow reconstruction. He can still generate good fastball velocity, but the shape of his curveball and slider have diminished. It takes time for a pitcher to sharpen his arsenal after the surgery. Cole has the aptitude and ability to get there, but he will turn 36 in September, and our panelists tend to study actuarial tables.
The perils of injury
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BOS
Tier 2 (97.0)
Tier 4
First half: 3-3, 6.30 ERA, 30 IP, 4.30 FIP, 11.1 K/9
Crochet came close this spring to receiving unanimous ace status from our respondents. But he may be one of the toughest players to evaluate for next year’s list. After an ugly start to the season, Crochet landed on the injured list with inflammation in his left shoulder. He experienced a setback in the form of a lat strain in May. He has yet to resume a throwing program. If he can’t make it back this season, we may stick with our policy and hold him off the list altogether.
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DET
Tier 1 (100)
Tier 1
First half: 5-5, 3.09 ERA, 75.2 IP, 3.06 FIP, 10.6 K/9
You can add a rapid return from the “Skubal Scope” to his growing list of accomplishments. Skubal missed less than two months after undergoing the surgery and has looked like himself since coming back. His Savant page is still dripping with crimson. He may not be able to three-peat as American League Cy Young winner, but he will generate plenty of interest at the trade deadline and will sign a lucrative new contract this winter.
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KC
Tier 4 (68.5)
NR
First half: 1-4, 4.84 ERA, 35.1 IP, 6.19 FIP, 11.5 K/9
Heading into 2025, Ragans posted an 86 score, tied for seventh-best pitcher on our list. More than a quarter of our panelists viewed him as an ace. But a strained rotator cuff limited him to 13 outings last season, and his future is now in peril after undergoing surgery to repair his ulnar collateral ligament earlier this month. The surgery marked the third major procedure on his elbow. The Royals hope he can pitch again next summer.
The sophomore class
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MIL
Tier 4 (64.0)
Tier 2
First-half: 10-4, 1.62 ERA, 111 IP, 2.09 FIP, 13.5 K/9
At this point, the only thing standing in the way between the Miz and certification as a No. 1 starter from our panel is good health. That’s no small factor, given his slender frame and outrageous velocity. The Brewers skipped his final start of the first half to give him extra rest for the second half. If he can keep it up, and avoid an injury, Milwaukee will enter October with a bonafide ace leading its staff.
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NYY
Tier 4 (60.5)
Tier 3
First half: 9-5, 2.05 ERA, 118.2 IP, 2.81 FIP, 10.4 K/9
When this year’s list came out, we wondered aloud if Schlittler was really a better pitcher than his teammate Carlos Rodón, who finished one spot behind the youngster from Massachusetts. Well . . . I guess we have an answer. Schlittler continues to bully hitters with his four-seamer, cutter and sinker. Some questions about his curveball may dissuade some of our panelists from rating him as a No. 1. But his production this season has been superb.
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NYM
Tier 4 (71.0)
Tier 4
First half: 6-6, 3.52 ERA, 107.1 IP, 3.44 FIP, 10.5 K/9
Expectations ascended to the clouds after McLean’s tremendous eight-start cameo in 2025. All things considered — he is only 24 and still qualifies as a rookie, the defense behind him stinks, the vibes in Flushing cannot be described as “good” — this has been a successful year.
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TOR
Tier 4 (63.0)
Tier 5
First half: 4-4, 3.72 ERA, 75 IP, 4.11 FIP, 8.3 K/9
Like McLean, Yesavage received a lot of love from our panel despite a limited big-league track record. Like McLean, he has experienced some growing pains. A shoulder injury cost him the first month of the season, and might dim his prospects a tad for next year’s list.
Fading veterans
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NYM
Tier 4 (70.5)
Tier 5
First half: 5-8, 4.66 ERA, 104.1 IP, 4.39 FIP, 9 K/9
The nightmare first half in Flushing has engulfed Peralta, who the club trumpeted as a front-line starter upon acquiring him from Milwaukee last winter. He was always prone to abbreviated outings and home runs, but this year he has suffered the consequences of missing fewer bats. He started calling his own pitches this month, but he still walked five batters in his first-half finale and failed to finish the fifth inning for the sixth time in 20 starts.
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DET
Tier 4 (76.0)
Tier 5
First half: 5-6, 4.10 ERA, 107.2 IP, 4.09 FIP, 7.3 K/9
Detroit thought it struck a short-term bargain in signing Valdez. Instead, he has looked closer to the pitcher he was in the second half of last season — 5.20 ERA in 12 starts — than the mid-rotation stalwart he was for most of six years in Houston’s rotation.
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TEX
Tier 5 (58.5)
NR
First half: 5-8, 4.63 ERA, 105 IP, 3.62 FIP, 9.9 K/9
The Rangers hoped to unlock another level for Gore, who collapsed in the second half for Washington last season. So far, no dice.
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PIT
Tier 1 (100)
Tier 1
First half: 8-8, 3.57 ERA, 108.1 IP, 2.88 FIP, 10.8 K/9
Is Paul Skenes . . . washed?
Paul Skenes In 2026,
Average Fourseamer Spin Rate (RPM):
4/1: 2,318
4/7: 2,300
4/13: 2,274
4/18: 2,269
4/24: 2,157
4/30: 2,207
5/6: 2,180
5/12: 2,209
5/17: 2,193
5/23: 2,188
5/28: 2,205
6/3: 2,269
6/9: 2,173
6/14: 2,139
6/20: 2,125
6/26: 2,085
7/1: 1,987
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) July 2, 2026
I asked a few of our panelists, and was told several versions of “No. What is wrong with you?”
When the numbers match the talent
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TOR
Tier 4 (66.0)
Tier 3
First half: 6-4, 2.56 ERA, 98.1 IP, 2.19 FIP, 13.5 FIP
When Cease signed with Toronto, Eno Sarris laid out a reasonable case for why the Blue Jays placed a $210 million bet on a guy with a 4.55 ERA for the Padres in 2025. The shorthand, for those of us who couldn’t get into the really good schools: Cease has big stuff, misses bats and takes the baseball all the time. Cease has been this good before; back in 2022, he finished second in the American League Cy Young voting. He has become one of the favorites to win it this year.
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MIN
Tier 4 (70.5)
Tier 4
First half: 6-5, 2.85 ERA, 110.1 IP, 2.77 FIP, 10.4 K/9
Whether Ryan makes a meaningful jump on next year’s list depends a lot on if his homer rate stabilizes. He gave up 1.5 dingers per nine innings from 2023 to 2025. He has cut that number to 0.8 in 2026. That might be skill. That might be luck. Either way, he is having another strong year.
The newcomers
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PIT
NR
Tier 4
First half: 9-3, 3.49 ERA, 113.1 IP, 3.29 FIP, 10.2 K/9
It can take a long time for high school pitchers to put it all together. The Pirates drafted Ashcraft in the second round in 2018. Along his way to the majors, he lost seasons to shoulder surgery, knee surgery, elbow surgery and the pandemic. As such, he’s never thrown more than 118 innings in a year. But there is plenty to like in his arsenal, including a big fastball and a curveball that rates as the best in sport, according to Statcast.
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CIN
NR
Tier 3
First half: 11-1, 2.54 ERA, 102.2 IP, 3.40 FIP, 10.3 K/9
The under-the-hood data last season suggested Burns was a stud. There’s nothing in hiding this year. It isn’t hard to see why Cincinnati just inked him to a $105 million extension. Burns has been overpowering opponents in 2026. If he can sharpen his command, he has a shot to become a No. 1.
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MIL
NR
Tier 5
First half: 8-2, 3.01 ERA, 83.2 IP, 3.10 FIP, 10.9 K/9
Harrison looks like the latest in a long string of excellent young Brewers pitchers, with the club able to unlock the skills that lay dormant during stints in San Francisco and Boston. But a recent stint on the injured list with the dreaded “forearm tightness” sounds ominous.
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CLE
NR
Tier 5
First half: 8-5, 2.73 ERA, 112 IP, 3.29 FIP, 8.8 K/9
Speaking of pitching pipelines, Messick has performed like the best of the bunch in Cleveland thus far. A 93-mph fastball and middling strikeout numbers, though, may hamper his standing with our panel.
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LAD
NR
Tier 5
First half: 10-2, 2.69 ERA, 100.1 IP, 3.37 ERA, 6.5 K/9
No Blake Snell? No Tyler Glasnow? No problem in Los Angeles. Wrobleski graduated from a swingman in 2025 to an All-Star in 2026. His strong command and deep arsenal compensate for the lack of an overwhelming offspeed pitch or exceptional velocity. Our panelists tend to be pessimistic about these types of pitchers. But Wrobleski should merit some consideration for a spot on next year’s list.
The unicorn
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LAD
Tier 3 (82.0)
Tier 2
First half: 8-2, 1.79 ERA, 85.2 IP, 2.61 FIP, 10 K/9
The results are undeniable. Ohtani may well be the best pitcher in the world. But a crucial component of being a No. 1 is availability. And Ohtani has this other job, as a hitter, in which he is also one of the best in the world. In his first full season back from his second elbow reconstruction, Ohtani has dealt with soreness in his right biceps when he bats and a blister on his right middle finger that occasionally spouts blood. But a lingering issue with his left knee is the most serious ailment on his docket. The condition caused him to miss the All-Star Game and will keep him off the mound for the immediate future. So it’s hard to foresee our panelists vaulting him from his already lofty perch, even if his ability is so obvious.