Weekly Predictor: Who wins in Week 12?

At the midpoint of the CFL season, it’s a tale of two divisions.

Last week was the perfect storm, as the West went 4-0, and you don’t need to be a mathematician to know how the East Division fared.

Out West, the Riders are humming with Trevor Harris leading the league in efficiency. BC Lions quarterback Nathan Rourke is rounding into form. Cody Fajardo has the Elks moving up the AMSOIL Power Rankings. The Bombers are staring down the Stamps for second spot in the division. Calgary comes off a bye week with the second-best record in the CFL.

Out East, three of the four teams are not playing with their franchise quarterbacks, and the Tiger-Cats are licking their wounds after getting dumped by the Riders in Regina.

Three of four games this week are once again East vs. West, although this time the games are in the East rather than all four last week being hosted by the West Division.

But will home field make a difference…?

WINNIPEG AT MONTREAL

Thursday, August 21
7:30 p.m. ET
TSN/RDS/CBSSN/CFL+

I’ll be honest. It’s tough to watch the Alouettes’ injuries pile up at quarterback. There is no way to think a team is going to find much success when it’s down to the fourth-string quarterback.

Though it was impressive to watch James Morgan rally a bit in Vancouver until Nathan Rourke and the Lions pulled away.

To make matters worse, the Alouettes have an extremely short week of prep to get set for this clash against the Bombers. Montreal will have one full practice and then it’s game day on Thursday.

Winnipeg nearly blew it against the REDBLACKS, but held on. Over the last five weeks, Brady Oliveira is second in rushing behind only James Butler of the BC Lions. As the Bombers find their run game, they’ll find more of their identity from their success over the last five seasons.

PICK: WINNIPEG

EDMONTON AT OTTAWA

Friday, August 22
7:30 p.m. ET
TSN/RDS/CFL+

The Dru Brown news to start the week was optimistic. He did not practice on Monday and head coach Bob Dyce said he’s unlikely to play this week, but doesn’t expect it to be a long-term injury. Dustin Crum, who nearly pulled off the unbelievable comeback, looks like he’ll get another start this season for Ottawa with Brown likely unable to play.

The stats don’t lie for Ottawa. Their efficiency on offence jumps up considerably when Dru Brown is at quarterback.

A few weeks ago I would still believe Ottawa wins this game but that was before Cody Fajardo was named starter for Edmonton.

Since that time, the Elks are 2-2 and their two losses came down to the final few minutes, including what would have been a game-winning touchdown that was dropped in the end zone.

Yes, Fajardo is doing a fantastic job running the offence, but what isn’t being talked about enough is the improved play on defence. The Elks still do sit near the bottom of defensive categories, but their numbers are improving. When it comes to opponents’ second down conversion rate, the Elks have seen the second-best improvement in the league since Week 6, trailing only the Roughriders defence.

These are all good signs on what could be turning into a second half surge by the Elks.

PICK: EDMONTON

BC AT TORONTO

Saturday, August 23
3:00 p.m. ET
TSN/CTV/CFL+

I don’t blame Ryan Dinwiddie for being at his wits’ end with his football team. When you look at a lot of the key stats offensively, you’d think the Argonauts would be right in the mix.

Then you swing over the defence and you see where things slip away for the Argonauts late in games. They just can’t make a key stop at a key time.

The Lions are coming in on a two-game win streak where Nathan Rourke has thrown for 790 yards and six touchdowns over those games.

If you were waiting for 2022 Rourke to show up, your wait is over.

To make matters worse for opposing defences, the Lions also have the league’s leading rusher in James Butler and the league’s leading receiver in Keon Hatcher Sr.

That’s quite the triple threat for a struggling Argonauts defence to try to slow down.

PICK: BC

SASKATCHEWAN AT CALGARY

Saturday, August 23
7:00 p.m. ET
TSN/CFL+

The Calgary Stampeders are the only team to beat the Roughriders this season as the game of the week will be the Week 12 finale on Saturday evening.

The Stamps went into Mosaic Stadium back in Week 6 and physically outdueled the hometown Riders.

Calgary can come in with some confidence knowing they can beat the 8-1 Roughriders.

However, there is one issue.

Since that game, the Roughriders have been dominant, including back-to-back 20+ point victories. They took that loss personally and it won’t be hard for the Riders to find motivation with the loss to the Stamps fresh in their minds.

It’ll be interesting to see how healthy the Stampeders exit their bye week after several injuries to their receiving corps over the last few weeks. The more firepower, the better against the league’s best defence over the last month.

PICK: SASKATCHEWAN

Weekly Predictor: Who wins in Week 12?

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