Bet Confidence Level: Moderate
The Commanders were hammered by injuries on both sides of the ball last year, so it’s unfair to judge them entirely on that 5-12 result. This is a team that went to the NFC Championship Game while powered by the league’s fifth-highest-scoring offense in 2024.
That season’s Offensive Rookie of the Year, Jayden Daniels, had a lot to do with that. He was lost for all but seven games in 2025. But Daniels is healthy now, his line should be strong, and running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt is a prime breakout candidate for a team that was at least very proactive about overhauling a problematic defense this offseason.
I have to imagine they’ll rejoin the wild-card picture with better injury luck in 2026.