Everything is pointing up for the Minnesota Lynx as they enter the second half of the WNBA season.
Napheesa Collier is back after returning on Wednesday, July 22 against the Seattle Storm, and the Lynx have won seven games in a row. Collier had 24 points and 10 rebounds in just 22 minutes against the Storm, and she and Olivia Miles should form one of the best duos in the WNBA to close this regular season.
Meanwhile, the Tempo are six games under .500 and just 2-8 in their last 10. Marina Mabrey has been forced to do a lot of heavy lifting with Kiki Rice (questionable tonight) and Brittney Sykes (out tonight) missing time, and the Tempo have fallen to last in the W in defensive rating.
So, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Lynx are favored by double digits at home on Tuesday.
Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction as Collier and Co. aim to extend their winning streak to eight.
Tempo vs. Lynx Odds, Spread and Total
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread
Tempo +14.5 (-110)Lynx -14.5 (-110)
Moneyline
Total
184.5 (Over -105/Under -115)Tempo vs. Lynx How to WatchDate: Tuesday, July 28Time: 8:00 p.m. ESTVenue: Target CenterHow to Watch (TV): The Sports Network, Victory+ Sports Network, WNBA League PassTempo record: 10-16Lynx record: 22-6Tempo vs. Lynx Injury ReportsTempo Injury ReportKiki Rice — questionableBrittney Sykes — outNyara Sabally — questionableIsabelle Harrison — questionableLynx Injury ReportTempo vs. Lynx Best WNBA Prop BetsLynx Best WNBA Prop BetNapheesa Collier OVER 19.5 Points (-112)
Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m buying Collier in the prop market:
I’m going to buy Collier at this discounted number until the market shifts when she returns to her usual minutes.
The All-WNBA forward needed just 22 minutes to score 24 points against the Seattle Storm (No. 8 in the league in defensive rating), and she took a whopping 20 shots in that game.
Now, the Lynx superstar gets to take on the worst defense in the league in Toronto (15th in defensive rating), which is allowing 92.9 points per game. This should be an easy win for the Lynx, and Collier’s usage was pretty strong in her season debut for a player that is coming off a major ankle injury.
Last season, Collier averaged 22.9 points per game, and she’s averaged at least 20 points per game in each of her last three seasons. She’s a great prop target as her role should expand in the coming weeks.
Tempo vs. Lynx Prediction and Pick
Before the break, I discussed a troubling trend for the Lynx in the betting market, even though they remain one of the best teams in the league when it comes to covering the spread.
Minnesota has not won a game by 11 or more points since June 17 when it beat the Los Angeles Sparks by 16. The Lynx have gone 12 straight games where they would have failed to cover this number, including Wednesday’s 10-point win against Seattle. That was the seventh win in a row for the Lynx, but they’ve struggled to win those games by a wide margin.
Even with Collier back, I think this line is a little high against the Tempo, who have proven they can score with anyone in the league.
Toronto is seventh in the league in offensive rating, sixth in effective field goal percentage and seventh in points per game. Now, it did lose to the Lynx by 28 points earlier this year, but this recent trend with the Lynx is extremely concerning.
Plus, the Tempo have been solid as underdogs this season, going 10-9 against the spread, including a 7-3 mark against the spread on the road.
Pick: Tempo +14.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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