A weeks-long lull in Alberta’s measles activity has health experts cautiously optimistic. But they warn cases could flare up again as the virus circulates elsewhere in Canada and the United States.
No new measles cases have been reported since a single case during the first week of June.
According to the Alberta government, there is currently no evidence of ongoing community transmission.
It said the risk is now considered low, and public health officials are updating measles guidance and public health advisories to reflect that.
“It’s very encouraging,” said Dr. Sam Wong, the president of the section of pediatrics with the Alberta Medical Association.
More than 2,300 Albertans have tested positive since the outbreaks began nearly a year and half ago. One death was reported last year.
And while the latest trends are positive, Wong is not breathing a sigh of relief just yet.
As Alberta’s outbreaks ballooned last year, health officials warned there were likely cases going unreported and undetected in the community.
Wong worries there could still be some cases flying under the radar.
“If there are still cases occurring and they’re not being reported or not being seen, then the outbreak may continue for a little bit longer,” said Wong.
“But the fact that we’re getting to the point where there’s no reported cases is the best we’ve seen in the year and a half that we’ve been going through this.”
Cases could pop up due to travel
The Ministry of Primary and Preventative Health Services describes the current measles situation as “stable.”
Health officials never declared a provincewide outbreak, so Albertans should not expect a declaration that the outbreaks are over, according to the province.
“No new measles cases have been reported in Alberta for several weeks and there is currently no evidence of ongoing community transmission,” press secretary Jaye Lang said in an emailed statement.
“As a result, Alberta’s public health officials are in the process of updating measles guidance and standing exposure advisories to reflect the current low-risk environment and transition to routine public health monitoring and reporting.”
Health officials caution, though, that sporadic or travel-related cases are still possible as measles circulates in other jurisdictions.
According to the Public Health Agency of Canada, British Columbia reported five new measles cases between July 12 and July 18.
The United States is battling outbreaks and is facing its worst measles year in decades.
“Although levels are currently low, I don’t think it’s time for us to relax,” said Dawn Bowdish, an immunologist and professor in the department of medicine at McMaster University.
“It’s such a contagious virus that without that incredibly high vaccination rate of well over 95 per cent there will be reintroductions and there will be people who get sick at some point or another,” she said.
“The hope is it will just be a much smaller outbreak.”
Given the extent of the outbreaks, Wong believes many non-immunized Albertans were likely infected.
“Once it gets into a population that is not vaccinated it will go through that community fairly quickly and most people, if not everybody who has not been vaccinated, will get that particular disease because of how contagious it is,” he said.
“I’m hoping that with the increased immunization rates that we’ve had in Alberta that the risk of susceptible populations is minimized. And that measles, because it’s so contagious, has gone through that population and they’re all now immune to measles.”
But he warned there are still pockets of people who are not immunized and are still at risk.
Get kids vaccinated before school, advises expert
Bowdish said it’s important to address the problems that led to measles outbreaks are addressed, including continuing to boost vaccination rates.
She’s urging parents to ensure their kids are up-to-date with their vaccines.
“It’s important to get children vaccinated before they attend school because this is going to be a place where they could hypothetically be exposed. And measles is such a dangerous infection that all children need to be protected from it,” said Bowdish.
The Alberta government is also encouraging vaccination.
“The best protection against measles is to ensure you are up to date with your immunizations,” the ministry statement said.
“Albertans are encouraged to speak with their primary care provider regarding their measles immunization.”