Some 25 years ago, a 12-year-old me was being bullied in high school.
I was chubby. I was nerdy. And I was “different” — because back then, being a gay teenager wasn’t yet considered “cool.”
Those ingredients made me a perfect target for the school’s older, more confident bullies.
Fortunately, that didn’t last too long, as I soon learned that the more you react to their constant attacks, the more you feed their appetite for more reaction.
No reaction? No more reason to poke the bear.
So I started ignoring their insults and, outsmarting them, they quickly grew tired of bullying me for nothing.
But this isn’t a story about me. It’s about Canada once again being the target of a bully — and, to add insult to injury, none other than its closest neighbour and ally.
The lessons I learned in high school a quarter-century ago might as well apply to our current situation as a country. Because in reality, retaliating against U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff salvo might be exactly what he wants us to do.
A recent Angus Reid Institute survey shows 62 per cent of Canadians want to see Prime Minister Mark Carney hit back at the U.S. — and most of them believe Ottawa should impose dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs.
But wouldn’t that just lead to further escalation in a trade war that already hurts both the American and Canadian economies?
As patriots, it might be tempting in the face of adversity to want our country to stand up and fight back. In fact, I was among those who initially thought Ontario Premier Doug Ford had a point when he called last week for a strong response, suggesting Canada should “hit back as hard as we can.”
But the more I think about it, the more I believe that in doing so, we would be taking the bait and end up playing Trump’s game.
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The question we should be asking is why is he coming back with a new wave of tariffs — and, more importantly, why now?
Looking at this fall’s political calendar, an important milestone is approaching south of the border, with pivotal midterm elections set for Nov. 3. Recent polls and seat projections suggest Trump’s Republican Party could lose control of at least one chamber of Congress — a result that would limit the president’s ability to act as he pleases.
Trump’s administration is increasingly unpopular. His approval ratings have dropped below 35 per cent in recent polls, his war in Iran is a disaster, and it is pushing gas and grocery prices even higher. For a man who ran on the promise to slash inflation and that there would be “no more wars” just two years ago, it’s a difficult track record to defend, even to his core MAGA base.
Some Republicans are worried about their party’s prospects this fall, and the bully-in-chief is under pressure from his own political family.
So Trump needs to deflect both the media’s and the public’s attention away from the daily problems he has contributed to since he returned to the White House. And what better solution than a new round of tariffs?
The trouble is, if Canada were to retaliate, we could end up serving him — on a silver platter — exactly the argument he needs to rally his base and press his anti-Canadian rhetoric.
But if we refrain from counterattacking, he won’t be able to portray us as the bad guys in this whole story to turn American public opinion against Canada.
Of course, doing nothing would be politically much harder to defend for Carney, especially when nearly two-thirds of Canadians want him to punch back.
So far, the prime minister has shown little interest in strong retaliation measures. At this point, that might be the sound and reasonable thing to do.
Because in the end, winning against a bully isn’t necessarily about being stronger — sometimes, you just have to be smarter.
Raphaël Melançon is a public affairs consultant and political analyst. A former journalist, he previously worked as a political adviser at all three levels of government.