A banged-up Ticats team looks to snap a home skid against a Calgary offense that’s lit up the scoreboard all season.

Game Details

Odds

Spread: Calgary Stampeders -5
Moneyline: Hamilton Tiger-Cats +210, Calgary Stampeders -258
Over/Under: 60

Hamilton is 3-4 against the spread with a 3-4 over/under split this year, while Calgary sits 3-3-1 ATS but has hit the over in every single game — seven overs, zero unders. That trend alone tells you what kind of shootout Vegas expects at Tim Hortons Field.

Overview

Both of these clubs sit at 3-4, but they got there in very different ways. The Tiger-Cats are stuck in a funk that started the moment Bo Levi Mitchell went down with a major ankle injury — since then it’s been Tre Ford trying to hold together an offense that’s scored the fewest points in the East outside of winless Ottawa. Hamilton followed up a gutsy 24-23 win over Toronto with a rough 18-31 loss to Montreal, where Travis Theis ran wild for 156 yards and the Als closed it out with 14 unanswered in the fourth. That loss dropped Hamilton to 3-4 and left the sting of a team that, as head coach Scott Milanovich and others admitted after the Week 6 collapse against Winnipeg, keeps beating itself with penalties and mistakes in winnable games.

Calgary, meanwhile, is riding actual momentum. The Stampeders snapped a two-game skid in emphatic fashion, torching Winnipeg 52-30 behind 319 yards and three touchdowns from Vernon Adams Jr., plus a historic night from returner Tyreik McAllister. Calgary’s offense ranks first in the league in scoring at 39.7 points per game — this isn’t a team that struggles to move the ball, it’s a team whose defense has occasionally let them down, ranking 9th in points allowed. That combination of elite offense and leaky defense is exactly why this over/under sits at 60.

The head-to-head history favors Calgary hard — the Stampeders have won 70 of 105 all-time meetings and took both matchups a year ago, 37-20 and 38-26. Hamilton hasn’t beaten Calgary since well before this current core took shape, and with Bo Levi Mitchell sidelined, the Ticats are working with a rushing attack (Larry Rountree III, Tre Ford) that will need to control the clock and keep Adams Jr. off the field. The edge here goes to Calgary, whose offensive firepower and recent form make them the more dangerous team even on the road.

Key Players

Vernon Adams Jr. (Calgary Stampeders, QB) — Torched Winnipeg for 319 yards and three scores last week and leads a Calgary offense averaging a league-best 39.7 points per game.
Tre Ford (Hamilton Tiger-Cats, QB) — Still finding his footing running Hamilton’s offense in place of Bo Levi Mitchell, and needs a cleaner fourth quarter after last week’s late-game unraveling in Montreal.
Larry Rountree III (Hamilton Tiger-Cats, RB) — Hamilton’s workhorse with 93 carries for 386 yards; the Ticats need him to eat clock against a defense that’s given up plenty of points.
Dedrick Mills (Calgary Stampeders, RB) — Sits third in the league with 584 yards on the ground and gives Calgary a physical complement to Adams Jr.’s arm.
Julian Howsare (Hamilton Tiger-Cats, DL) — The veteran pass rusher anchors Hamilton’s front and will need to get home against a Calgary line that’s allowed its share of pressure.

Keys to the Game

Hamilton has to protect the football and stay out of the penalty box — the same issues that sank them against Winnipeg and Montreal will get exposed against Calgary’s high-powered attack.
The Ticats need a fast start; Calgary’s offense is too dangerous to let hang around into the fourth quarter with the game still within reach.
Winning time of possession with Rountree and the run game is Hamilton’s best shot at keeping Adams Jr. off the field and shortening the game.

Injury Report

PlayerTeamStatus

Shemar Bridges (WR)Hamilton Tiger-CatsQuestionable — Hip
Loik Gagne (LB)Hamilton Tiger-CatsQuestionable — Knee
Braxton Hill (LB)Hamilton Tiger-CatsQuestionable — Ankle
Tyler Ternowski (WR)Hamilton Tiger-CatsOut — Shoulder
Quavian White (DB)Hamilton Tiger-CatsOut — Hamstring

Depth Chart

Hamilton Tiger-Cats projected starters by position, built from the team’s official Week 9 depth chart. Note this is a projected look and may shift with late-week roster moves.

PositionHamilton Tiger-Cats

QBTre Ford, Harrison Frost, Jake Dolegala
RBLarry Rountree III
FB/TEAnte Milanovic-Litre, Max Mang, Daniel Bell
WR (Boundary)Kenny Lawler
WR (Field)Keric Wheatfall, Tyson Middlemost
SBKiondré Smith, Isaiah Wooden Sr, Kurleigh Gittens Jr, Myron Mitchell
LTTrevor Reid
LGBrandon Revenberg, Jonathan Denis
CLiam Dobson, Chris Kolankowski
RGNathaniel Dumoulin-Duguay
RTBrayden Swartout
DEJulian Howsare, Philip Ossai, Owen Hubert, Isaiah Bagnah
DTMiles Fox, De’Jon Benton, Mario Kendricks Jr
LB (W/M)Jordan Crook, Braxton Hill, Wynton McManis
SReggie Stubblefield
FSJake Nitychoruk, Robert Panabaker, Stavros Katsantonis
CBJamal Peters, Zamari Walton
HBDestin Talbert, Devodric Bynum
KMarc Liegghio
PMitch McCarthy
KR/PRIsaiah Wooden Sr

Score Prediction

Hamilton Tiger-Cats 28 – Calgary Stampeders 33. Calgary’s offense has been too explosive to bet against, and with Hamilton still adjusting on the fly without Bo Levi Mitchell, the Ticats can hang around and even find the end zone plenty — but the Stampeders’ firepower and recent form carry them to the road cover.

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Who takes this one? Drop your prediction in the comments.