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Recent opinion polling suggests the Ontario Liberals may be righting the ship after years of heavy defeats to Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives as the race to take the helm of the party’s future begins to heat up.
In a Liaison Strategies poll published at the end of July, the Ontario Liberal Party held a lead at 33 per cent compared to the PC’s 29 per cent, with Ford’s specific approval rating at only 24 per cent.
An Abacus Data poll published Tuesday shows support declining for Ford’s party, but it’s still in the lead at 40 per cent compared to the Liberal 32 per cent, which the firm describes as a substantial gap. Both polls surveyed 1,000 respondents. The Liaison survey was conducted from on July 20 and 21, while the Abacus survey was conducted from July 23 to 29.
But the Liberals’ positive movement in the court of public opinion can’t be attributed to a leader Ontarians would rather see in charge because the party has been without one since Bonnie Crombie resigned in January.
Despite the NDP being Ontario’s Official Opposition in the legislature, the polls above suggest voters are looking towards the traditional alternative to the Conservatives, said Peter Graefe, an associate professor of political science at McMaster University.
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“I think for the Liberal Party itself, it’s an important moment to figure out how do they position themselves if they’re trying to attract voters who may have voted Conservative in recent elections but are looking elsewhere?” he said.
“What are the messages, the slogans and policies that are going to reach those people?”
Graefe adds that a leadership race is won through votes from existing party members, so balancing that campaign while continuing to court former Conservative voters presents a challenge.
Who will get to pick up the party’s momentum will be decided in November, when the party elects a new leader. The field of contestants is now clear, with the deadline to file nomination papers with the party passing on July 31 and the first debate scheduled for Aug. 10.
The leadership candidates are:
Navdeep Bains, a former science and industry minister in Justin Trudeau’s government who left politics in 2021. He most recently served as an executive at Rogers. Stephanie Bowman, the MPP for Don Valley West since 2022, an accountant and former bank executive. Lee Fairclough, a first-time MPP representing Etobicoke-Lakeshore, former president of St. Mary’s General Hospital in Kitchener and a former player on Canada’s National Women’s Rugby Team. Vikram Handa, a graduate of the University of British Columbia law school who bills himself as a “housing leader and social impact executive.” Eric Lombardi, founder of the advocacy group More Neighbours Toronto, with a professional background in finance and technology. Dylan Marando, a policy advisor to Liberal premiers Kathleen Wynne and Dalton McGuinty, as well as prime minister Justin Trudeau.
Health care, education, housing and affordability were among the common themes raised by candidates who spoke to CBC News. Bains’s campaign did not respond to an interview request.
Bowman was unavailable for an interview but said in a news release issued Wednesday she wants to build a foundation for the party’s success.
“We need to organize earlier, build stronger, and support ridings well ahead of the next election,” she said.
Fairclough says having a seat gives her an advantage
Former Liberal leader Steven Del Duca resigned after failing to win his Vaughan-Woodbridge seat in 2022. Crombie also failed to woo GTA voters in 2025, losing her bid to represent Mississauga East-Cooksville.
Fairclough said it’s important the next head of the party already has a place at Queen’s Park.
“I’m hearing from Liberals across Ontario that they are looking for a leader that has a seat in the legislature,” she said. “You can challenge the premier every day.”
She said where she won her contest is also important, taking a riding in the premier’s part of the province from a Conservative incumbent.
“I’ve played rugby for Canada, which some people say that [I’m] tough enough for Ford based on that alone.
Marando touts experience
Marando may not have held an elected position, but he said he comes with the most experience in executive offices of government. He cited his work on the federal $10 a day childcare program as one example.
“If folks want to get into a resumé measuring contest. I will do that every day of the week and twice on Sunday,” he said.
Marando said paying attention to polls now is a “trap.”
“Liberals are not entitled to government. We have to earn it. We have to go out there and we have to listen to Ontarians in every corner of the province.”
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Lombardi’s looking to show party members he’s ready to lead, with a fully costed platform available on his campaign website.
“I think that politics needs to talk about real ideas more. And also politicians should be able to … tell you whether the vision that they’re offering is even viable,” he said.
He wants to offer voters something new.
“I think we’ve anchored our thinking in the past and nostalgia for previous governments rather than thinking about the conditions that we have in the province today.”
Handa is leaning on his experience working in the housing sector to prove he can tackle one of the province’s biggest issues.
“The housing crisis wears a human face and I’ve seen it every day of my, of my work. And housing is emblematic of a broken status quo because it speaks to a deeper inequality,” he said.