Updated:
Aug 20, 2026 , 01:14 PM ET
• 4 min read
Don’t sleep on the total in Vegas tonight as the Aces and Sun are primed to smash the Over in Sin City.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Las Vegas Aces guard Chelsea Gray (12) reacts to a play against the Minnesota Lynx in the fourth quarter at Michelob Ultra Arena.
The Las Vegas Aces enter tonight’s matchup against the Connecticut Sun at Michelob ULTRA Arena as heavy -15.5 favorites.
Despite the game total dropping significantly from its 169.5-point opener, my Sun vs. Aces predictions and WNBA picks are backing the Over in a high-scoring affair for Thursday, Aug. 20.
UPDATE: Added Chelsea Gray prop!
Sun vs Aces prediction
Sun vs Aces best bet: Over 166.5 -105
The Connecticut Sun and Las Vegas Aces have both been inefficient lately, but tonight’s game total has dropped far enough to create value on the Over.
The Sun have scored 92.9 points per 100 possessions over their last five games, yet the Aces own a below-average 113.6 defensive rating during that span.
Las Vegas has also allowed opponents to shoot 48.4% from the field and 38.6% from three. With A’ja Wilson capable of carrying Vegas offensively, Connecticut only needs modest improvement for this game to clear 167.5 points.
That makes the dipping game total worth attacking to 168.5 points tonight.
COVERS INTEL: Across their last five games, the Sun have allowed 18 points per game from turnovers. They meet a Vegas group averaging 26 ppg in the paint during that same span.
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Sun vs Aces same-game parlay
I like the Over, and since the game total dipped, the scoring props for A’ja Wilson and Olivia-Nelson Ododa are prime to attack.
The Sun are allowing nearly 39 paint points per game across the last five, and the incomparable Wilson has scored at least 25 points in five of her previous eight games.
Nelson-Ododa has seen a major spike in minutes and has scored at least 13 points in her past two. She faces an Aces defense that has surrendered 43.6 paint points per game in their previous five contests.
Sun vs Aces SGP +400
Over 166.5
A’ja Wilson Over 24.5 points
Olivia Nelson-Ododa Over 13.5 points
Want more basketball parlays? Check out our WNBA parlay picks page!
Sun vs Aces player prop pick
Chelsea Gray Over 1.5 made threes -127
Chelsea Gray is heating up from downtown, and that’s a bad thing for a Sun defense allowing 8.2 triples per game across their last five.
Gray is the Aces’ engine. She pushes the pace (97.0), and her 33 minutes of action, alongside a 19% usage rate over her last five contests, means she has the ball in her hands often.
Gray’s recent five-game sample is fantastic. 51% of her points have come from downtown, and she’s knocked down at least two or more from deep in four of her past six games.
Play Gray’s made threes to -135 tonight.
Phil Naessens’ 2026 Transparency Record
Best bet: 15-11-1, +0.91 units
SGP: 6-21, +1.10 units
Player prop: 4-9, -4.65 units
Sun vs Aces odds
Spread: Connecticut +13.5 | Las Vegas -13.5
Moneyline: Connecticut +600 | Las Vegas -900
Over/Under: Over 170.5 | Under 170.5
Sun vs Aces trend
Aces are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Sun vs Aces
Location
Mohegan Sun Arena, Paradise, NV
Date
Thursday, Aug. 20, 2026
Tip-off
10 p.m. ET
TV
NBCSB, KMCC
Sun vs Aces latest injuries
Sun: Aaliyah Edwards (GTD), Brittney Griner (GTD).
Aces: Dana Evans (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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