We’re down to two more races before the NASCAR Cup Series Chase begins, starting with the Dollar Tree 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway this Sunday.
There’s a lot at stake in this particular one: Denny Hamlin is on his way to locking in the No. 1 seed while other drivers are sweating their playoff futures. NASCAR reporter Jeff Gluck breaks down the biggest storylines and makes his predictions below.
Dollar Tree 301
Denny Hamlin has the most NHMS wins among the field. Does he lock-in the No. 1 seed in style with a win this Sunday?
Jeff: All Hamlin needs to secure the No. 1 seed is to avoid disaster, as he’s currently up by 115 points and needs only a 76-point lead to clinch, so this is essentially a boom-or-bust race. He and his No. 11 team can afford to go all out for the victory without caring how a bad finish would affect them. And given Joe Gibbs Racing’s strength in general, Hamlin should be able to be in contention all day on Sunday – if not win outright. But obviously he’ll have to contend with the Team Penske cars since they’ve been so strong lately.
Jordan: Whether he officially clinches Sunday or not, Hamlin is going to be the No. 1 seed heading into the Chase – too much would have to go wrong for him for this not to happen, a level of comfort that affords him the ability to gamble should an opportunity arise to better his chance of winning at New Hampshire. But the reality is that Hamlin doesn’t need to take chances to win, he should have the speed to be in the mix as this is traditionally a strong track for both himself and Joe Gibbs Racing.
Joey Logano has won two of the last four races. What would another top finish mean for where he stands in the Chase picture?
Jeff: Logano is fearsome after skyrocketing from 20th in the standings to ninth, and he actually needs to stay hot in order to try and climb further in the standings before the Chase begins if he wants a realistic shot at winning the title after a tough start to the season. It would actually be fairly shocking if Logano (and Penske as a whole) didn’t run well at this point, especially on a short track where they’re known to excel. As mentioned earlier, this should absolutely be another JGR vs. Penske showdown on Sunday, and we should not expect a Chevrolet to be in the mix. (Only one Chevy driver has won since 2012: Kevin Harvick for Stewart-Haas Racing in 2016.)
Jordan: Logano should be considered a virtual lock for the Chase, but he still has a points hole to dig out of after his slow start to the season. And the more he can do this, the better chance he has of winning a fourth Cup championship as the guys ahead of him in the standings still have a points advantage. He needs Sunday to resemble what he did at North Wilkesboro and Richmond, where he amassed a bunch of stage points and took the win.
With only two races until the Chase, what bubble drivers could make or break their Chase chances this weekend?
Jeff: This is an absolutely crucial weekend for Ryan Preece. He enters New Hampshire 50 points behind Shane van Gisbergen for the final Chase spot and only has two races left. However, New Hampshire is one of Preece’s best tracks, and the one where he has the most laps.
The Connecticut native, a former driver on NASCAR’s Modified Tour, has made a whopping 27 starts at New Hampshire and has more than 2,700 laps under his belt alone in that car – not to mention his stock car experience. While he’s never had a top-10 finish in his seven Cup starts at New Hampshire, Preece did finish 11th and 14th in his last two races there; he’ll absolutely need a top-15 plus a bad race from van Gisbergen to stay in contention before Daytona (where anything can happen).
Jordan: If Preece and Ross Chastain – the first two drivers below the cut line – have any hope of making the Chase, it is imperative they knock down the points gap between themselves and the 16th spot. Anything else would mean they’re then facing a near impossibility at Daytona of leap-frogging their way in.
Predictions: Who wins this Sunday? Who has a surprising finish?
Jeff: Christopher Bell is always tough at New Hampshire. He’s had race-ruining incidents twice, but in the four times he had clean races there in the Cup Series? Second, first, first, sixth. For a Joe Gibbs Racing driver who hasn’t won this year and is tired of finishing second, this could be a big-time opportunity and he’ll be eager to win before the Chase begins.
Meanwhile, I’d look at Josh Berry for the “surprising finish” category (although it may not be a huge surprise at this point). Berry is 30th in the point standings, but his New Hampshire finishes in the Cup Series are as follows: Third and second. Oh, and he’s coming off three straight top-10 finishes (including a fourth-place result at Iowa). I’d definitely look at him as a possible top-five bet.
Jordan: Team Penske teammates Logano and Ryan Blaney are the 1A and 1B favorites. It almost feels as if they’ll be in their own class, then everyone else falls in behind them – similar to what has transpired many times in recent years on short ovals, including this race last year.
As for the surprise pick, it has to be Josh Berry, though a good argument could be made that him running well Sunday would not constitute a “surprise.”