As the WNBA regular season nears its conclusion, it’s time to focus on the playoff race—and which team can really win it all.
Currently, the Minnesota Lynx are the clear No. 1 team.
They are in a tier by themselves, ahead of the rest of the league by four games even after losing to the No. 2-seed Golden State Valkyries on Monday night. The Lynx got here thanks to a well-balanced team and a superstar in the making in rookie Olivia Miles. Based on Minnesota holding that top spot essentially all season long, even without Napheesa Collier for a huge chunk of time, they should be title favorites.
However, even though the Lynx are a team that’s consistently been great in the regular season, they haven’t been able to get over the hump. They haven’t won the title since 2017 and have had painful losses, including their semifinal exit to the Phoenix Mercury last year and losing the WNBA Finals to the New York Liberty back in 2024.
If they, once again, can’t get the job done, which team should be favored to take the title?
There are plenty of good title contenders to choose from. The standings are fairly tight with the No. 2 seed and the No. 5 seed separated by just a game and a half. These teams, in order, are the Valkyries, Las Vegas Aces, Atlanta Dream and Indiana Fever.
While there are valid arguments for any of these four teams to emerge as a title-worthy alongside the Lynx, only one, similar to Minnesota, is significantly outperforming the others in key statistical areas and fits the 2020s title trends in the WNBA: the Fever.
Why the Lynx and Fever are the only true WNBA title contenders
Kelsey Mitchell soars for a layup vs. the Lynx. NBAE via Getty Images
Looking at the six WNBA title winners this decade, three key statistical categories matter most: offensive rating, defensive rating and pace.
Almost every champion has had an elite offense. During this decade, four of the six winners were No. 1 in offensive rating. The only exceptions are the 2025 Aces, who were fourth in offense, and the 2021 Chicago Sky, who were seventh.
The Fever are currently No. 1, and the Lynx are No. 2.
When it comes to defensive rating, there is a bit more leeway. Of the last six WNBA champions, three finished in the top three in defensive rating, and two were No. 1 with the Seattle Storm in 2020 and the Aces in 2023.
So, a top-four defense along with an elite offense places you as a contender. Here, the Lynx have the edge. They are second in the WNBA with a 103.2 defensive rating. The Fever, meanwhile, are abysmal at 11th with a 108.6 defensive rating.
Still, it’s not Minnesota’s title to lose. In pace, the third key indicator, the Fever are ahead.
They are second in the league in pace at 99.4 while the Lynx are seventh at 97.3. Throughout the 2020s, three of the six champs have finished top three in pace. The Aces were No. 1 in 2022, the 2023 Aces finished second and the 2021 Sky were third.
This year, only the Lynx and Fever are on the right track in two of these three categories, making them the best bets to win it all.
While Minnesota is clearly the top team and extra nuance wasn’t needed to know this, it’s interesting to see how well they match up with historical precedence. The Fever being elite in two of these three stats is telling, too. It demonstrates that they have the offensive firepower to overwhelm teams. And in head-to-head matchups, that might be the difference between winning a tough playoff series and losing one.
Their defense is certainly a concern, but their offense might be so good that it doesn’t matter. They have elite backcourt play thanks to Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell, and no one is going to relish facing them in an elimination setting.
Sure, another team can win it all in 2026. We know it’s never smart to doubt the Aces! But the eye test, stats and history are leaning in the favor of the Lynx or the Fever.
Do you agree? Should the Lynx and Fever be considered to clear favorites? Or, will this season buck these recent statistical trends? Give us your still-too-early title take in the comments.