Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions

Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T) is “becoming more than just a relative value play,” according to National Bank Financial analyst Gabriel Dechaine.

Citing a “more optimistic credit performance and stronger top-line performance,” he upgraded Scotia to an “outperform” rating from “sector perform” based on a mid-teens total return to his target for its shares and what he still views “as attractive relative valuation.”

BMO, Scotia signal caution, but say businesses adapting well to trade unrest

“BNS achieved its fiscal 2027 ROE [return on equity] target of 14 per cent this quarter, an important milestone for a bank typically viewed as a ‘value play’,” said Mr. Dechaine. “This performance was boosted mainly by the Capital Markets business (i.e., ROE up 350 basis points quarter-over-quarter, vs. 70 basis points average in other segments). Management emphasized that the next step forward will be driven by the Canadian banking business. Encouragingly, performance in this business has been improving: 1) Year-to-date PTPP [pre-tax, pre-provision earnings] has grown by 10 per cent, including Q3/26 growth of 11 per cent; 2) NIM [net interest margin] has expanded by 8 basis points so far this year, with potential improvement ahead tied to term deposit outflows and mortgage repricing; and 3) net fee income growth of 9 per cent.”

Scotia shares soared 7 per cent on Tuesday following the premarket release of its third-quarter results, which including adjusted earnings per share of $2.28, topping both Mr. Dechaine’s $2.09 estimate and the consensus forecast of $2.10. He attributed the beat primarily to higher PTPP (10 cents, “mainly trading and advisory revenues”) and lower PCLs (7 cents).

“Credit outlook is cautiously optimistic,” added the analyst. “Impaired PCLs [provisions for credit losses] were down 10 per cent quarter-over-quarter (and 10 per cent below our forecast), reflecting improvement in both the Canadian and International banking segments. Management cited improved collections efforts in the Canadian consumer book and improved risk selection in International as factors (notwithstanding a ‘top-up’ provision on a wholesale impairment in Brazil). Regarding downside risks to the latest trade tensions between Canada and the U.S., BNS highlighted small (i.e., sub-1-per-cent) exposure to sectors with higher tariff exposure.

“Capital management strategy: low risk of M&A Management downplayed potential M&A activity in the U.S. regional banking space, citing more interest in organic expansion. If anything, acquisition activity would most likely involve small wholesale businesses in the U.S. as targets.”

After increasing his forecast to reflect the results and his positive view, Mr. Dechaine raised his target for Scotia shares to $142 from $128. The average target on the Street is $123.78.

Elsewhere, TD Cowen’s Mario Mendonca raised Scotia to “buy” from “hold” with a $141 target, up from $124.

“Q3/26 results were strong, reflecting better loan growth, strong CMRR [capital markets revenue], and lower PCLs,” said Mr. Mendonca. “We are upgrading BNS to BUY on the basis of renewed loan growth across the bank (except non-retail IB), ROE progression (particularly in CAD banking), and favourable capital priorities. We see as a positive that management is more focused on return of capital and not U.S. M&A at this time.”

He added: “The upgrade reflects renewed loan growth across the bank (except for non-retail IB – we expect some progress in ’27), lower PCLs, and ROE progression (particularly in CAD banking). We also believe management could raise the ROE target in Q4/26); capital return priorities (over US M&A) also support our upgrade.”

Analysts making target adjustments include:

* RBC’s Darko Mihelic to $129 from $117 with a “sector perform” rating.

“ Q3/26 results were stronger than our expectations particularly in Global Banking and Markets. We saw signs that BNS could potentially raise its targets. BNS exceeded its 14-per-cent-plus core ROE target and suggested this target was not a ceiling. Its updated International Banking (IB) double-digit core earnings growth guidance (underpinned by 6-8-per-cent revenue growth and 4-per-cent expense growth) in 2027 and beyond improved from its 2026 guidance (modest/low-single-digit earnings growth). We model IB loan growth to turn positive (which may be generous, as it declined 1 per cent year-over-year constant FX ex-divestitures in Q3/26),” said Mr. Mihelic.

* Raymond James’ Stephen Boland to $139 from $137 with an “outperform” rating.

“We continue to believe the market is under pricing BNS’s transition toward higher-return, multi-product primary relationships. As the Bank continues to execute in International and Canadian Banking, we expect its valuation discount to peers to narrow,” said Mr. Boland.

* Canaccord Genuity’s Matthew Lee to $127 from $121 with a “hold” rating.

“BNS reported Q3 results featuring an EPS beat driven by robust growth across its Canadian businesses and improving strength in its International segment. Our key takeaway from the quarter was the bank’s increasing confidence in its ROE trajectory, with management highlighting that its prior 14-per-cent target would not be a ceiling for the bank. We viewed BNS’ Canadian banking performance as particularly strong, with PTPP up 11 per cent year-over-year and loan growth up 3 per cent which suggests that BNS can find growth domestically while its LATAM business begins its pivot to growth. Credit was also a positive, with PCLs beating our estimate despite including $71-million of idiosyncratic PCLs related to a single corporate client. Overall, we view the quarter positively but remain on the sidelines as we look for further evidence that the improving loan growth and credit trends in International Banking can be sustained.,” said Mr. Lee.

* Keefe Bruyette’s David Konrad to $152 from $148 with an “outperform” rating.

While Bank of Montreal (BMO-T) revealed “solid” quarterly results, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Darko Mihelic says he’s clinging to “some conservatism for 2027.”

“BMO’s Q3/26 results were stronger than expected, mostly in Capital Markets, Wealth Management, and U.S. Banking,” he said. “BMO expects its announced divestitures to increase its CET 1 ratio by 50 basis points on closing and these businesses represented 3 per cent of core earnings in Q3/26. We continue to believe further upward revisions to 2027E core earnings may require greater loan growth and wider operating leverage (in Canada and the U.S.) while capital markets activity remains robust.”

BMO shares closed up 0.6 per cent on Tuesday after it reported third-quarter core earnings per share of $3.96, topping both Mr. Mihelic’s projection of $3.74 and the consensus estimate of $3.77 “due to higher-than-expected Capital Markets, Wealth Management, and U.S. Banking results.”

“On a consolidated basis, non-interest income was higher than expected and total provision for credit losses (PCLs) were lower than anticipated,” he added. “The bank expects Q4/26 impaired PCLs to be in line with Q3/26.”

The analyst is now modelling “higher total revenue and higher non-interest expense estimates across the operating segments and refine our expected core earnings impact from divestitures.”

“Our 2027 estimates increase in most operating segments but decrease in Canadian P&C in 2027,” he added. “We model BMO to repurchase ~65% of its newly announced NCIB. Our core EPS estimates increase to $14.79 (was $14.48) in 2026 and $16.08 (was $15.57) in 2027. We introduce our 2028 estimates with this note and expect a core EPS of $18.04 in 2028.”

With those changes, Mr. Mihelic raised his target for BMO shares to $241 from $230, keeping a “sector perform” rating. The average target is $248.82.

Elsewhere, other changes include:

* Canaccord Genuity’s Matthew Lee to $271 from $265 with a “buy” rating.

“Our key takeaway from the quarter was the acceleration in US loan growth, which we view as a key part of the segment’s ROE expansion thesis. Credit was also a key positive, with impaired PCLs falling 4 basis points quarter-over-quarter, and management indicating that the underlying credit fundamentals continue to improve (although impaired PCLs should remain relatively stable in Q4). While we largely expected a strong quarter from BMO on the back of Capital Markets activity, we view the Q3 results as robust and broad-based, reinforcing our confidence that the bank will be able to reach its 15-per-cent ROE target by the end of F27. With our PTPP estimates modestly increased for Capital Markets and the US business, and our medium-term PCL assumptions moderated, our target price increases from $265.00 to $271.00. We maintain our BUY rating and continue to believe that BMO can deliver group-leading EPS growth over the next two years,” said Mr. Lee.

* National Bank’s Gabriel Dechaine to $271 from $278 with a “sector perform” rating.

“We are adjusting our estimates to account for stronger trading revenues and modestly lower PCLs. We are also reducing our target P/E multiple to 14.5 times from 15 times due to potential margin compression as loan growth outpaces deposit growth. As a result, our price target reduces,” said Mr. Dechaine.

RBC Dominion Securities analyst Irene Nattel is maintaining “a high degree of confidence” in her long-term constructive thesis on Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (ATD-T) despite “softer consumer demand and heightened macro uncertainty.”

“Based on our analysis, key to ATD as a compelling investment and multiple re-rating/improved investor interest lies in underlying performance, secular tailwinds favouring large operators, and greater clarity on path forward with the proposed Żabka acquisition (not in estimates),” she added. “Should management continue delivering on Core+More with structural fuel supply chain upside, the valuation gap to peers could narrow meaningfully.”

In a client note released before the bell, Ms. Nattel adjusted her forecast for the Montreal-based convenience store operator ahead of the release of its first-quarter fiscal 2027 results on Sept. 1 to “softer consumer demand reads, updated gas price expectations, fine-tuned gas margin assumptions.”

“We are trimming our U.S. inside SSS [same-store sales] assumption to up 2.25 per cent from up 3.0 per cent to reflect a softer demand backdrop for the value-oriented consumer that typically represents 50 per cent of c-store traffic, as evidenced by recent earnings from Walmart (NYSE: WMT) and PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) pointing to more cautious spending patterns,” she said. “Revised SSS forecast at the lower end of management’s F2026- F2030 framework target CAGR [compound annual growth rate] of 2-3 per cent.

“Our latest forecasts reflect updated FQ1E U.S. fuel margin 48.75¢/g (from 48.00¢/g previously), 6.5¢/g premium to industry margin, within the range of prior eight quarter premium 3¢–16¢ as significant fuel price volatility amid the geopolitical situation continues. We reiterate our view that ATD U.S. fuel margins should be sustainable in the high-40¢/g range with upward bias through our forecast horizon. Estimated EPS sensitivity to ±1¢/g/Q change in the U.S. fuel margin is ±$0.02, all else equal.”

Despite her adjustments, Ms. Nattel reaffirmed an “outperform” rating and $111 target for Couche-Tard shares, which exceeds the average on the Street of $103.73.

“ATD shares have traded down 10 per cent from the post-FQ4 amidst weakening consumer spending trends,” she said. “We view the current share price as a compelling entry point, catalysts for improving investor sentiment, in our view, would include traction and cadence of SSS and SSG recovery, gas margin sustainability, progress on Core+More strategy execution, continued momentum in Europe, and clarity on Żabka transaction timeline/integration approach. ”

While acknowledging the debate on artificial intelligence is likely to continue, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Paul Treiber thinks “sustained healthy fundamentals may continue to fuel improved sentiment” across Canada’s technology sector following a solid second-quarter earnings season, seeing an “attractive risk-reward” across his coverage universe.

“The S&P/TSX Info-tech sub-sector has rallied 33 per cent off its trough on May 13th and is now down just 6 per cent year-to-date,” he said in a client note. “Despite this sharp rebound, the sub-sector’s year-to-date performance still lags the S&P/ TSX Composite (up 15 per cent year-to-date) and the S&P 500 Info-tech sub-sector (up 18 per cent year-to-date). The rally in Canadian tech stocks since mid-May reflects improved investor sentiment for software, driven by two factors: generally healthy near-term fundamentals (11-per-cent average organic growth, 62 per cent of our covered stocks reported Q2 revenue above consensus) and valuations near multi-year lows.”

Mr. Treiber noted consensus revenue estimates across his coverage universe have increased following stronger-than-expected quarterly results “with Q3 revenue estimates up 0.5 per cent and CY26 up 0.6 per cent, a much larger increase than last quarter’s 0.3 per cent and 0.1 per cent, respectively.”

“Profitability expectations also rose: Q3/CY26 adj. EBITDA estimates increased 0.5 per cent and CY26 adj. EBITDA rose 1.0 per cent, whereas both declined last quarter,” he added. “These results reflect a generally stable macro and resilient enterprise discretionary spending despite increasing AI investments, along with sustained consumer spending, no increase in customer churn, and operating leverage.

“Canadian tech top 100. We compare our coverage against the 100 largest technology stocks listed on Canadian stock exchanges, which provides broader context and helps identify outliers across the larger landscape. Among Canadian tech stocks with more than $50-million market cap, the best 90-day performers are PKK (up 820 per cent), DMGI (up 50 per cent), and SHOP (up 45 per cent); the largest quarterly revenue beats in the last 90 days came from BB (revenue 11 per cent above consensus), CLS (7 per cent), and CGY (7 per cent); and the largest upward CY26 revenue revisions over the last 90 days belong to VQS (23 per cent), PNG (17 per cent), and QTRH (16 per cent).”

Mr. Treiber named four companies as his “best ideas” in the sector

Shopify Inc. (SHOP-Q, SHOP-T) with an “outperform” rating and US$180 target. The average is US$171.39.Constellation Software Inc. (CSU-T) with an “outperform” rating and $4,400 target. Average: $4,014.18.Kinaxis Inc. (KXS-T) with an “outperform” rating and $210 target. Average: $203.Celestica Inc. (CLS-N, CLS-T) with an “outperform” rating and US$450 target. Average: US$463.54.

“We expect fundamentals across our coverage to remain healthy through Q3 and Q4,” he concluded. “Despite the rally since mid-May, 78 per cent of the stocks in our coverage universe are still in the lowest quartile of their historical valuation range. We therefore believe earnings growth will underpin improved returns, and the S&P/TSX Info-Tech may continue to narrow its year-to-date underperformance (down 6 per cent vs. S&P/TSX Composite up 15 per cent, S&P 500 up 12 per cent, S&P 500 Info-Tech up 18 per cent) through year-end.

”We expect Shopify (down 7 per cent year-to-date) to extend its rebound through year-end, driven by robust revenue growth (we forecast CY26 revenue up 32 per cent year-over-year). Constellation (down 6 per cent year-to-date) is positioned to benefit from an increased pace of acquisitions, driving continued compounding of capital (we forecast Constellation’s adj. EBITDA up 18-per-cent year-over-year CAGR over the next 2 years). Kinaxis (up 4 per cent year-to-date), in our view, may see an upward valuation re-rating on continued SaaS and ARR growth re-acceleration (we forecast CY26 SaaS revenue up 20 per cent year-over-year). For Celestica (0 per cent year-to-date), the company may continue to deliver solid beat-and-raises through year-end, as AI data centre build-outs fuel strong revenue growth and operating leverage (we forecast CY26 adj. EPS up 82 per cent year-over-year).”

Stifel analyst Ryan Walker thinks an investment in Cabral Gold Inc. (CBR-X) provides exposure to “a gold exploration and emerging small-scale oxide-gold producer focused on a large prospective land package centred on the largest historic producer (2 million ounces) of placer gold during Brazil’s 1980s Tapajós gold rush.”

” CBR has so far focused on just six targets (three main deposits) for resource addition, representing a very small fraction of the (306 square kilometres ) project’s prospective footprint, with drilling to date testing the various deposits and mineralized zones to depths of just 150 million,“ he said. ”CBR plans to systematically (internally funded via cash flow) expand known mineralization and test a wealth of advanced and more greenfield targets (above 50) at the formerly prolific alluvial gold producer.”

In a client report released before the bell, he initiated coverage of the Vancouver-based company with a “buy” rating.

“We highlight the potential for near-term modest but low-cost gold production aimed at providing CBR with meaningful cash flow to allow for non-dilutive exploration of a large prospective land package covering the largest producer of placer gold during the 1980s Tapajós gold rush,” he added. “We also note that Cabral CEO, Alan Carter, is considered the driving force behind the team that identified five grassroots gold discoveries in Brazil, including G Mining Venture’s (TSE:GMIN) neighbouring Tocantinzinho gold mine – Brazil’s third-largest gold mine.

Mr. Walker set a target of $1.70. The average is $1.65.

“Our target price is anchored in a DCF valuation of the expected cash flows from the company’s commissioning-stage trial mining operation at the 100-per-cent-owned Cuiú Cuiú gold project in Brazil. We also include an EV/oz-based valuation of unmodelled resources and exploration target at the 305.6km2 project, which covers the entire gold district that ranked as the largest producer of placer gold during the 1980s Tapajós gold rush. Upside to our target is represented by continued exploration success and the potential to add additional existing and newly identified oxide-gold material to the Phase 1 mine plan,” he added.

In other analyst actions:

* Canaccord Genuity’s Carey MacRury initiated coverage of Toronto-based Summit Royalties Ltd. (SUM-X) with a “buy” rating and $2.50 target.

“Summit is a junior precious-metals-focused royalty and streaming company. Summit went public in November 2025 and has since expanded its portfolio to 46 royalty and streaming assets, including four cash-flowing assets and two development-stage projects, providing a foundation for continued growth,” said Mr. MacRury.

“How Summit stacks up vs. peers. Summit is trading at a sizable discount to its junior royalty/streaming peers, trading at 0.75 times NAV on our price deck compared with the peer average of 1.26 times. We view this discount as compelling given Summit’s emerging GEO and cash-flow profile and above-average 2027 FCF yield of 6.5 per cent. While Summit is relatively exposed to execution risk compared with some of its more established peers, with a number of assets ramping up and/or under construction, we believe the current multiple does not fully reflect the company’s improving diversification, visible GEO growth profile, and liquidity to pursue additional royalty/streaming acquisitions.”

* Raymond James’ Brian MacArthur increased his target for Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK.B-T) shares to $105 from $93 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $72.50.

“We have updated our forecasts for Teck most notably to reflect higher expected earnings at Trail given our ongoing expectation of significant byproduct sales of commodities like gold silver and germanium,” said Mr. MacArthur. “We also note longer term Trail could benefit from theJuly 7, 2026 announcement between Teck, Canada Growth Fund Inc. and Natural Resources Canada’s ‘Canada Critical Minerals Accelerator’ of a Strategic Investment Agreement to support the possible expansion of production capacity for germanium, gallium, and antimony at Trail Operations.

“We believe Teck offers investors good exposure to energy transition metals with numerous internal growth options.”