Lando Norris and McLaren arrive at the Temple of Speed as the form team in Formula 1. Back-to-back wins in Hungary and the Netherlands have flipped the narrative around the MCL40, and the betting markets have followed: Norris is the favorite to complete a hat-trick at Autodromo Nazionale Monza this weekend.
The team itself is more measured. In its Italian Grand Prix preview, McLaren warned that Monza is a different animal from Budapest and Zandvoort, that rivals will bring circuit-specific parts, and that the MCL40 “may not have the outright quickest package this weekend.” That is the correct tone for a technical briefing. It is not the whole picture. The combination that is winning races right now is still the one that best matches Monza’s brief: a Rob Marshall-designed chassis that has found its feet, and the class-leading Mercedes-AMG power unit behind it.
Two wins, a different circuit, the same argument
Norris’s Hungarian Grand Prix victory was McLaren’s first of the 2026 season and the world champion’s first since São Paulo last November. He then converted pole at Zandvoort into a second straight win, beating Kimi Antonelli and George Russell. Oscar Piastri finished sixth in the Netherlands after a more difficult afternoon, but the constructors’ picture is clear enough: McLaren is third on 263 points, still a long way from Mercedes on 425, yet the only team that has beaten the works Silver Arrows in consecutive grands prix since the summer break.
Monza will test whether that surge was circuit-specific. Hungary and Zandvoort reward high downforce and mechanical grip. The Italian Grand Prix does the opposite. The lap is 5.793 km, 53 tours, 306.720 km in total, with only 11 corners — seven right, four left — and long, punishing straights. Energy management is rated high. Pit loss is about 25 seconds, falling to 13 seconds under a Safety Car on lap one. Pirelli has allocated the C3 hard, C4 medium and C5 soft.
That is why Technical Director Neil Houldey talked about drag reduction, braking stability, ride through the chicanes, and the “yo-yo effect” that appears when cars harvest and deploy energy at different points. Overtaking will not just be about who has DRS. It will be about who still has charge left at the end of the main straight.
Even so, the case for McLaren as favorite does not rest on pretending Monza is another Hungaroring. It rests on the two hardware advantages the team now carries into a power-sensitive track.
The Marshall car has arrived
#1 Lando Norris, (GRB), McLaren Mercedes MCL40, during the Dutch GP, Zandvoort, Holland, 20-23 August 2026, Formula 1 World Championship 2026.
Rob Marshall joined McLaren from Red Bull in 2024 and is now Chief Technical Officer and Chief Designer. His McLaren cars buried everyone the last two years. He is by far the best design engineer in F1. Early in the year, the package was overweight and still learning the new rules. The last two race weekends have looked like the payoff: a new floor, wakeboards and floor slots in Hungary, then a new rear wing, engine cover, diffuser tweaks and front-wheel rims at Zandvoort. Norris won both from pole.
Monza gets another layer. McLaren will run minor aerodynamic updates from FP1, plus previously declared low-drag parts written specifically for this layout. The headline item is the H-Wing, the team’s rotating low-drag rear wing, first seen in practice in Hungary and now due for its first proper race weekend. The name is a nod to McLaren’s old F-duct and to the “H” in the Etihad branding on the rear wing. Houldey said the team has brought “a new low-drag rear wing specification, including the first use of our H-Wing, alongside some small aerodynamic and low-drag options that we will evaluate before deciding the final specification for Qualifying.”
That is Marshall’s brief in miniature: package the car tightly under the new rules, then keep feeding it circuit-specific tools. Monza is the first true low-drag exam of that approach.
The Mercedes power unit is the other half of the bet
Monza has always been an engine track. In 2026 it is an energy track as well. The long straights put a premium on internal combustion power and on how cleanly a car can recharge and deploy the hybrid. Mercedes-AMG High Performance Powertrains has been the reference manufacturer this season. McLaren is a customer, and early in the year Andrea Stella was open that Woking was still learning how to exploit the same hardware as the works team. That gap has narrowed as the collaboration with HPP improved and as the MCL40 itself generated more rear support for harvesting.
The important comparison at Monza is not McLaren versus the Mercedes works car in a vacuum. It is McLaren-Mercedes versus Ferrari and Red Bull-Ford on a lap that spends an unusual amount of time at full power. The papaya car now has a chassis that can live with the front of the field and a power unit that, on paper, still sits at the top of the grid. If Marshall’s low-drag spec does its job, that combination should be dangerous in a straight line and stable enough through the Rettifilo, Roggia and Ascari to protect a qualifying position.
There is also a championship wrinkle. Antonelli leads the drivers’ standings on 242 points, 59 clear of Russell and Lewis Hamilton. Mercedes will take a full power-unit change on the Italian’s home weekend, sending the championship leader to the back of the grid. Bookmakers have already moved Norris to the front of the market as a result. Russell remains the most obvious works-Mercedes threat. Ferrari, with a hungry Tifosi and a possible ADUO engine decision of its own, will not be a passenger. But the shortest path to a third straight win now runs through Norris and a McLaren that no longer looks like a development project.
What McLaren actually said — and why it still favors them
Houldey’s preview is worth quoting because it is honest. “We know we have had a quick car at the last few races, but we are not taking anything for granted. This is a very different track from the most recent ones, and we can expect a pecking order that not necessarily reflects what has been seen in Hungary and in the Netherlands.”
He is right that the order can shuffle. He is also describing a team that has already prepared the exact tools Monza demands: simulation accuracy, energy maps, a low-drag wing, and drivers who have just won from the front. The internal message is not “we cannot win.” It is “execute every detail.” That is how a favorite talks when the circuit changes character.
The cars will also carry an OKX livery enhancement through Monza and again at the Spanish Grand Prix in Madrid, a visual reminder that this is a commercial as well as a competitive push. Development of the 2026 car continues in the background with an eye on a wider range of circuits. Monza is the immediate exam.
A circuit that already sits in McLaren history
Aerial view of Monza
McLaren’s Italian Grand Prix ledger is 11 wins, 12 poles, 33 podiums and 16 fastest laps. The most recent victory was Daniel Ricciardo’s in the MCL35M in 2021, a 1-2 with Norris after a perfect undercut, the fastest pit stop of the day, and the Hamilton-Verstappen collision at the first chicane. Andrew Salt, Ricciardo’s No. 1 that afternoon, later called it proof that the team still had championship DNA after nine seasons without a win.
Alain Prost’s 1989 success in the MP4/5 remains the sentimental marker of another era. The 2021 afternoon is the modern one: not the fastest car in a vacuum, but fast enough once it was in front, and clinical enough to stay there. That is the template McLaren is chasing again.
Weekend snapshot
Italian Grand Prix, Round 13
Autodromo Nazionale Monza
53 laps · 5.793 km · 11 corners
Tyres: C3 / C4 / C5
FP1 Friday 12:30 local / 11:30 MTC
FP2 Friday 16:00 / 15:00 MTC
FP3 Saturday 12:30 / 11:30 MTC
Qualifying Saturday 16:00 / 15:00 MTC
Race Sunday 15:00 / 14:00 MTC
Elsewhere in the group, Arrow McLaren is at the IndyCar Grand Prix of Monterey after Pato O’Ward’s Milwaukee double. On the junior ladder, Matteo De Palo contests FIA Formula 3 at Monza, Dries Van Langendonck is in British F4 at Croft, and Christian Costoya races Italian F4 at Imola.
The three-straight case
Favorites do not need to be unopposed. They need the best answer to the questions the circuit actually asks. Monza asks for low drag, braking stability, and ruthless energy management. McLaren has spent two races proving the Marshall MCL40 can win from the front. It brings a dedicated low-drag rear wing and the H-Wing to reduce the cost of those straights. It still has Mercedes power in a year when that remains the benchmark unit. And the man who has led the championship all season will start from the back.
The team is right not to treat Hungary and Zandvoort as a guarantee. The rest of the paddock is right to treat McLaren as the team to beat on Sunday. Three straight would not be an accident of calendar. It would be the first time this season the new-rules McLaren has looked like a complete car on a track that exposes every weakness — and found that the weaknesses are no longer the story.