After 26 weeks of racing, the NASCAR Cup Series is set to begin the final 10-week stretch to crown a champion in the return of the revamped Chase format.

Instead of the multiple rounds of elimination that the old playoff format produced, it simply comes down to which of the 16 title-eligible drivers can survive the gauntlet of tracks ahead and finish highest in points after the next 10 weeks. 

With that in mind, let’s take a shot at predicting how each race could play out and who the 2026 Cup Series champion will be.

Darlington Raceway – Sunday 

“The Lady in Black” plays host to the Chase opener on Sunday, and it could present a huge opportunity for Tyler Reddick to right the ship and show that he is still a factor in the title race. He led 77 laps from the pole in his win at Darlington in the spring and ranks third in both speed and passing this season, so it may finally be time for the early-season dominator to return to victory lane.

Winner: Tyler Reddick

World Wide Technology Raceway – Sunday, Sept. 13

The Cup Series has been to the 1.25-mile track just outside of St. Louis four times and Team Penske has won two of those races. Ryan Blaney is still searching for his first win there, but he has three top-six finishes and recently dominated the similarly-shaped New Hampshire Motor Speedway in August. 

Winner: Ryan Blaney

Bristol Motor Speedway – Saturday, Sept. 19

While drivers like Kyle Larson and Hamlin are typically contenders for the win at Bristol, a season sweep from Ty Gibbs only seems fitting. Not only did he win his first Cup race there earlier this season, but it has become arguably his best track in the series with five top 10s in seven starts. He is also driving a throwback scheme honoring the late Kyle Busch, who won more races there in all three series (22) than anyone else.

Winner: Ty Gibbs

Kansas Speedway – Sunday, Sept. 27

While Hendrick Motorsports only has two wins all season – both from Chase Elliott – don’t be surprised if this is where Larson finally returns to victory lane. He is a three-time winner there and scored 19 stage points in the spring before finishing runner-up to Reddick, not to mention his most recent win occurred at Kansas in May 2025.

Winner: Kyle Larson

Las Vegas Motor Speedway – Sunday, Oct. 4

Similar to Kansas, this should come down to a battle between HMS and the Toyotas if the spring race is any indication. Let’s stay in the HMS camp for this one and go with William Byron, who won Stage 2 and finished third in “Sin City” earlier this season. If not here, you can chalk it up to another missed opportunity for the No. 24 bunch.

Winner: William Byron

Charlotte Motor Speedway – Sunday, Oct. 11

Daniel Suarez may have come away with the rain-shortened win in the Coca-Cola 600 earlier this season, but Joe Gibbs Racing was the clear team to beat. While Christopher Bell finished runner-up, Hamlin was arguably the fastest and has five top-seven finishes in his last seven starts on the oval, which hosts a second date for the first time since 2017.

Winner: Denny Hamlin 

Phoenix Raceway – Sunday, Oct. 18

Phoenix moves out of the title race slot for the first time since 2019 and represents a prime opportunity for Bell to finally break through after entering the Chase with seven runner-ups this season. He led a race-high 176 laps in the spring and has a pair of wins in his last five starts there.

Winner: Christopher Bell

Talladega Superspeedway – Sunday, Oct. 25

The always entertaining and unpredictable high banks of Talladega are sure to shake up the Chase picture this late in the season. While a non-Chase driver is just as likely to spoil the party, let’s roll with three-time champion Joey Logano, who has three career wins there and has led laps in 14 of his last 15 starts at the 2.66-mile track.

Winner: Joey Logano 

Martinsville Speedway – Sunday, Nov. 1

The penultimate race of the season is where the fight for the title could become a little clearer, if it hasn’t beforehand. Enter Hamlin, who led a race-best 292 of the 400 laps in the spring race. He ultimately settled for second behind Elliott, but the six-time Martinsville winner is bound to respond at one of his best tracks.

Winner: Denny Hamlin

Homestead-Miami Speedway – Sunday, Nov. 8

The 1.5-mile venue returns as the title race for the first time since 2019 and is sure to deliver an exciting end to the Cup Series season. Chase Briscoe may not be the first driver who comes to mind at Miami, but he is a two-time winner there in the lower ranks and finished fourth last spring in his first start there with JGR.

Winner: Chase Briscoe

2026 NASCAR Cup Series champion: Denny Hamlin

It will likely not be easy or without some setbacks along the way if his career is any indication, but this format and schedule of tracks set up well for Hamlin. With the series’ best average finish (8.23) and a career that is approaching its end, there is no better time than now for Hamlin to win his first title in his 20th postseason appearance, especially given all that he has endured off the track.