Three byelections. Three Liberal challenges. Zero Liberal wins.
The Ontario Liberals went into Thursday’s three provincial byelections hoping to turn polling gains—and the political heat surrounding Donald Trump—into actual seats.
Instead, voters left the scoreboard untouched.
Progressive Conservatives held York—Simcoe and Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, while the NDP defended Scarborough Southwest. No seats changed hands.
That makes the result particularly awkward for the Liberals. Their polling had put them ahead of the NDP, while Premier Doug Ford had spent months battling with U.S. President Donald Trump over tariffs and positioning his government as the party willing to “stand up to Trump.”
Federal Liberals under Prime Minister Mark Carney had just swept three federal byelections using a similar anti-Trump, Canada-first message. Ontario Liberals had reason to hope some of that momentum might spill across the political border.
It didn’t.
In York—Simcoe, Liberal Naomi Davison made a major jump, climbing to nearly 39 per cent from 24 per cent in 2025. But PC candidate Susan Lahey still captured almost 50 per cent.
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek was even tougher for the Liberals, with their candidate finishing third. In Scarborough Southwest, the NDP held off a Liberal challenge.
And there was another warning sign: turnout was only between 21 and 29 per cent.
For Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie, the results offer a mixed picture. The party appears capable of gaining ground, but gaining ground isn’t the same as winning seats.
The Liberals are still searching for a permanent leader—their third leadership contest since 2018—while Ford’s majority remains firmly intact.
For Peel residents watching Queen’s Park, Thursday’s message was blunt: the Trump factor may have changed the conversation, but it didn’t change the government.
The Liberals may be getting closer. But on Thursday night, closer still meant second—or third—place.