The WNBA regular season is winding down, and Friday’s slate brings three games with plenty of betting angles to attack.
Indiana travels to Toronto with playoff seeding still very much in play, while Minnesota hosts New York in a matchup between two of the league’s most talented rosters. The late game sends Portland to Golden State on the second night of a back-to-back.
The biggest storyline is Toronto trying to replace Marina Mabrey. She was the Tempo’s leading scorer and primary perimeter creator, and her absence puts even more pressure on an offense that now has to keep pace with Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Mitchell, and one of the league’s highest-scoring teams. That makes Indiana’s spread and Clark’s player-prop market particularly interesting.
New York-Minnesota should be much more competitive. The Lynx have been one of the WNBA’s most complete teams on both ends and get the Liberty at Target Center, where Minnesota has been difficult to beat. New York still has enough offensive talent with Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones to make laying points uncomfortable, but Minnesota has held the statistical edge defensively.
We’ll also look at Portland’s team total against Golden State. The Valkyries have been one of the league’s strongest defensive teams, and the Fire will be playing their second game in as many nights. Here are my WNBA best bets, predictions, and player props for Friday, Sept. 18.
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Indiana Fever at Toronto Tempo odds
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Team
Spread
Total
Moneyline
Indiana Fever
-12.5 (-110)
Over 189.5 (-110)
-650
Toronto Tempo
+12.5 (-110)
Under 189.5 (-110)
+470
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Fever vs. Tempo prediction
The deeper I get into this matchup, the more I like Indiana. The Fever own the WNBA’s No. 1 offense at 97.0 points per game and a 117.9 offensive rating. Toronto sits on the opposite end defensively, allowing a league-worst 93.8 points per game with a 117.7 defensive rating, also last in the WNBA. That is a rough combination against Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Mitchell, and Aliyah Boston.
The positional matchup might be even more concerning for Toronto. The Tempo ranks 14th against guards and 13th against forwards in points allowed. Only one team has been more generous to opposing guards. That gives Indiana multiple ways to attack, whether Clark is creating out of pick-and-roll, Mitchell is scoring on the perimeter, or Boston is getting touches around the rim.
Toronto is also badly depleted. Marina Mabrey is out, while Brittney Sykes and Aneesah Morrow are done for the season. Those absences remove significant shot creation and scoring from a team that was already averaging only 86.2 points per game.
Indiana has already beaten Toronto twice this season, 113-91 and 101-95. The first game was a 22-point blowout, while the second saw Toronto get 10.5 points and still lose outright. Both meetings also went over the total.
The one concern with laying double digits is Indiana’s defense. The Fever rank only 12th in defensive rating, so Toronto is capable of scoring enough to hang around for stretches. But Indiana’s offensive advantage is so large that I’m willing to live with that.
Prediction: Fever 101, Tempo 86
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Fever vs Tempo best bet
The biggest reason I’m willing to lay this many points is Mabrey’s absence. She wasn’t just Toronto’s leading scorer. Mabrey averaged 20.8 points per game, shot 38.5% from 3, and was the Tempo’s primary perimeter creator. She even tied the WNBA single-game scoring record with 53 points earlier this season. Now she’s done for the year, joining Sykes and Morrow on the sideline. That is a massive amount of offensive creation missing from an already average offense.
Toronto averages 86.2 points per game and ranks ninth in offensive rating at 108.2. Without Mabrey, I have a hard time seeing where enough consistent scoring comes from to keep pace with Indiana. The Fever lead the WNBA at 97.0 points per game and have much more firepower.
Let’s talk about motivation. Indiana is 26-14 and currently sits fifth because Atlanta owns the tiebreaker, but the Fever are still tied with the Dream in the standings and fighting for a first-round home game. Every win matters over the final four games. Toronto, meanwhile, has already been eliminated.
The question is whether Toronto can score enough to stay inside 12.5. With Mabrey gone, I don’t think it can. Indiana should be able to create separation offensively, and unlike Toronto, it has something significant to play for. I’ll lay the points.
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New York Liberty at Minnesota Lynx odds
Team
Spread
Total
Moneyline
New York Liberty
+6.5 (-105)
Over 176.5 (-110)
+205
Minnesota Lynx
-6.5 (-115)
Under 176.5 (-110)
-250
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Liberty vs. Lynx prediction
This is a much tougher spot for New York than the record alone suggests. Minnesota owns the best net rating in the WNBA at +10.0, ranking second in both offensive rating and defensive rating. The Lynx score 91.3 points per game while allowing only 83.4, and they are 14-6 at Target Center. New York is still a strong offensive team, but its defense ranks just eighth in defensive rating, creating a pretty significant two-way gap.
The season series is 1-1. New York won 99-86 at home before Minnesota responded with a 90-85 win at Target Center. I don’t think the Liberty get run out of the building, but Minnesota has more ways to win possessions defensively and has been the much more complete team over the full season. Satou Sabally also remains out for New York, removing another versatile scorer and defender from the rotation.
Prediction: Minnesota 92, New York 84
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Liberty vs. Lynx best bet
I’m backing Minnesota in this one. The Lynx are 31-9 with a +10.0 net rating, compared with New York at +3.7, and Minnesota has been far more reliable against the number this season. The Lynx are 23-17 ATS, while the Liberty are just 15-26 ATS.
What I like most is Minnesota’s balance. Olivia Miles gives them another creator, Kayla McBride stretches the floor, and Napheesa Collier gives New York a difficult matchup on both ends. New York has enough talent with Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones to keep this competitive—still the better defensive team, with a perfect home-court advantage.
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Portland Fire at Golden State Valkyries odds
Team
Spread
Total
Moneyline
Portland Fire
+12.5 (-110)
Over 161.5 (-110)
+625
Golden State Valkyries
-12.5 (-110)
Under 161.5 (-110)
-950
Fire vs. Valkyries prediction
This is a rough scheduling and matchup spot for Portland. The Fire play Phoenix Thursday night, then have to turn around and face Golden State Friday, while the Valkyries come in rested. Portland already has the slower offensive environment working against it, and now it faces the best defense in the WNBA on the second night of a back-to-back.
Golden State allows just 75.4 points per game and owns the league’s best defensive rating. The Valkyries have held opponents below 70 points 14 times, more than any other team, while opponents are shooting only 41.8% from the field against them.
Prediction: Golden State 87, Portland 70