NBA Fantasy Mock Draft: 12-team round-by-round analysis

Round 1

Pick

Player

Team

Nikola Jokić, DEN – C

Papi Roi – Fantasy Basketball PH

Victor Wembanyama, SAS – C

Austin Swaim – Rotoballer

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC – PG

Steve St. Pierre – Menace Podmen Podcast

Luka Dončić, LAL – PG/SG

Raphielle Johnson – Rotoworld

Cade Cunningham, DET – PG/SG

Benjamin Zweiman – Yahoo Fantasy

Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIA – PF/C

Aaron Bruski – SportsEthos

Anthony Edwards, MIN – PG/SG

Jacob Dunne – Fantrax

Jayson Tatum, BOS – SF/PF

Adam Stock – Elite Fantasy Basketball

Jalen Johnson, ATL – SF/PF

Alex Barutha – Rotowire

Cooper Flagg, DAL – SG/SF/PF

Karan Talwar – Spreadsheet Fantasy Basketball

Tyrese Haliburton, IND – PG/SG

Dan Titus – Yahoo Fantasy

Tyrese Maxey, PHI – PG

Justin Henry – JHEN Fantasy

Team Papi went Nikola Jokić over Victor Wembanyama at the 1.01, and in points leagues that’s the right call. Wembanyama has the edge in Yahoo ADP (1.6 to 1.9), but Jokić projects for 63.1 fantasy points per game in my numbers, nearly 4.0 points clear of Wembanyama. Assists count 1.5 points each in this format, and nobody piles them up like Jokić.

The rest of the round went mostly by the book, with a clear lean toward guards. Six of the 12 picks were PG-eligible, while Jokić, Wembanyama and Giannis Antetokounmpo were the only bigs. Jalen Johnson and Cooper Flagg going back-to-back at 9 and 10 makes sense, too. Both fill up every column of the box score, which is exactly what you want in points.

My pick: I took Tyrese Haliburton at No. 11, which lines up with my rankings. I wanted to start with a high-assist guard who gets steals. Haliburton projects for 9.3 assists against just 1.9 turnovers per game, and that ratio is great in a format that rewards dimes and penalizes giveaways. He’s coming off a missed season, so I’m projecting him for about 65 games, but I’d rather take that swing at the 1-2 turn than settle for a safer player with a lower ceiling.

Round 2

Pick

Player

Team

Alperen Sengun, HOU – PF/C

Justin Henry – JHEN Fantasy

Donovan Mitchell, CLE – PG/SG

Dan Titus – Yahoo Fantasy

Josh Giddey, CHI – PG/SG

Karan Talwar – Spreadsheet Fantasy Basketball

Scottie Barnes, TOR – SF/PF/C

Alex Barutha – Rotowire

Austin Reaves, LAL – PG/SG/SF

Adam Stock – Elite Fantasy Basketball

Paolo Banchero, ORL – PF

Jacob Dunne – Fantrax

Amen Thompson, HOU – PG/SG

Aaron Bruski – SportsEthos

Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK – PF/C

Benjamin Zweiman – Yahoo Fantasy

Kevin Durant, HOU – SG/SF/PF

Raphielle Johnson – Rotoworld

Jalen Brunson, NYK – PG

SteveSaintP – Menace Podmen Podcast

Devin Booker, PHX – PG/SG

Austin Swaim- Rotoballer

Jamal Murray, DEN – PG

Papi Roi – Fantasy Basketball PH

The guard run kept going. Seven of the 12 picks in Round 2 were PG-eligible, capped by four straight from picks 22 through 25: Jalen Brunson, Devin Booker, Jamal Murray and Trae Young to open Round 3. Team Papi pairing Jokić with Murray is a cool stack, and adding Trae at the 3.01 gives that roster a ton of assist volume.

Team Karan grabbing Josh Giddey at 15 caught my eye. Giddey’s ADP is around 24, but his 16.9/8.0/9.1 projected line plays way up in points (41.4 FPPG). He’s a better points player than a 9-cat one, and that pick told us Team Karan came in with a plan. More on that in a bit.

My pick: Donovan Mitchell at 14 lined up perfectly with both my rankings (13th) and his ADP (13.6). He’s averaged at least 24 points in each of the last four seasons, and last year was one of his best: 27.9 points, 5.7 assists and 1.5 steals on 48% shooting over 70 games, good for 44.3 fantasy points per game in Yahoo’s default scoring. I’m projecting a small step back this season to 26 points, 5.1 assists and 1.4 steals (42.4 FPPG) over 69 games, which still makes him a top-15 player in points leagues. I considered Giddey here, but I already had my primary playmaker in Haliburton and wanted a high-volume scorer next to him.

Round 3

Pick

Player

Team

Trae Young, WAS – PG

Papi’s Pleasant Team

Evan Mobley, CLE – PF/C

Austin’s Agreeable Team

Anthony Davis, WAS – PF/C

SteveSaintP

Bam Adebayo, MIA – PF/C

Raphielle’s Official Team

LaMelo Ball, MIN – PG

Benjamin Zweiman – Yahoo Fantasy

James Harden, CLE – PG/SG

Aaron Bruski – SportsEthos

Domantas Sabonis, SAC – PF/C

@AintDunneYet

Jaylen Brown, PHI – SG/SF/PF

Adam Elite Fantasy Basketball

Jalen Duren, DET – C

Alex Barutha

Kawhi Leonard, TOR – SG/SF/PF

Karan_Talwar27

LeBron James, PHI – SF/PF

Dan Titus

Stephen Curry, GSW – PG

Justin’s Phenomenal Team

This is where the first wave of bigs hit. Evan Mobley, Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo went back-to-back-to-back at picks 26 through 28, then Domantas Sabonis went at 31 and Jalen Duren at 33. That’s five C-eligible players in one round after just six total in Rounds 1 and 2.

Davis at 27 went 15 spots ahead of his ADP (42.7), but I’m not calling that a reach. I have him 15th overall, and his 48.1 projected FPPG is the best of anyone in this round. The catch is availability, which is why he’ll continue sliding in drafts.

Two 76ers stars (Jaylen Brown and LeBron James) went in the same round. I have James ahead of Brown by almost 20 picks, so it’s interesting to see how others view how the production could shake out with so much talent in Philly.

My pick: With the bigs I wanted gone in that 26-33 stretch, I pivoted to LeBron James at 35. I have him 19th, and Yahoo ADP has him 36th, so this was a 16-spot discount on my board. James is projected for a 20-6.5-7.5 line in Philadelphia, and that breadth of stats will be solid for points leagues. He’s reportedly dealing with arthritis in his foot (who isn’t at 41 years old), so the risk is games played (63 in my projection), but at the end of Round 3, I’ll take that bet in a points league.

Round 4

Pick

Player

Team

Chet Holmgren, OKC – PF/C

Justin’s Phenomenal Team

Stephon Castle, SAS – PG/SG

Dan Titus

Deni Avdija, POR – SG/SF/PF

Karan_Talwar27

Brandon Miller, CHA – SF/PF

Alex Barutha

Jalen Williams, OKC – SF/PF

Adam Elite Fantasy Basketball

Walker Kessler, LAL – C

@AintDunneYet

Kyrie Irving, DAL – PG

Aaron Bruski – SportsEthos

Donovan Clingan, POR – C

Benjamin Zweiman – Yahoo Fantasy

Lauri Markkanen, UTA – SF/PF

Raphielle’s Official Team

Darius Garland, LAC – PG

SteveSaintP

Derrick White, BOS – PG/SG

Austin’s Agreeable Team

Trey Murphy III, NOP – SG/SF

Papi’s Pleasant Team

The second wave of bigs followed right behind. Chet Holmgren went at 37, Walker Kessler at 42 and Donovan Clingan at 44. Kessler and Clingan are perfect examples of why centers carry so much value in points: Kessler projects for only 13.3 points per game, but his 11.3 rebounds and 2.5 blocks push him to 38.7 FPPG. Clingan’s projection is nearly identical (38.7 FPPG).

Through four rounds, three teams still didn’t have a single C-eligible player: Team Adam (Jayson Tatum, Austin Reaves, Jaylen Brown, Jalen Williams), Team Karan (Flagg, Giddey, Kawhi Leonard, Deni Avdija) and mine. Every other team had at least one big, and Team Dunne already drafted two (Sabonis, Kessler). Remember, you have to start at least two centers in Yahoo default leagues, and Dunne made a point of securing a couple of top-tier centers in his first 50 picks.

My pick: Stephon Castle at 38 was one of my favorite values in the draft. I have him 26th, and his Yahoo ADP is 53.9. I’m projecting another step forward for the third-year pro, with my numbers having him at 18-5-7 with over a steal per game, while suiting up for at least 70 games. I know I’m higher than the market on Castle. Remember he’s the top assist man for Wembanyama and that’ll go a long way.

Round 5

Pick

Player

Team

Jaren Jackson Jr., UTA – PF/C

Papi’s Pleasant Team

Franz Wagner, ORL – SF/PF

Austin’s Agreeable Team

Cameron Boozer, MEM – PF

SteveSaintP

Pascal Siakam, IND – PF/C

Raphielle’s Official Team

Keyonte George, UTA – PG/SG

Benjamin Zweiman – Yahoo Fantasy

Desmond Bane, ORL – SG/SF

Aaron Bruski – SportsEthos

Nickeil Alexander-Walker, ATL – PG/SG

@AintDunneYet

Dejounte Murray, NOP – PG

Adam Elite Fantasy Basketball

Matas Buzelis, CHI – SF/PF

Alex Barutha

Joel Embiid, PHI – C

Karan_Talwar27

Julius Randle, BKN – PF

Dan Titus

Michael Porter Jr., BKN – SF/PF

Justin’s Phenomenal Team

Round 5 was a mixed bag, with every position represented. Team SteveSaintP made Cameron Boozer the first rookie off the board at 51, a few picks ahead of his ADP (55.9). His projected 16.8 points and 8.0 rebounds should hold up in points, but I have him 69th, so that’s a bit rich for me.

Joel Embiid at 58 was the first big for Team Karan. Embiid is still a per-game monster (41.6 projected FPPG), but my projection only has him for 48 games. In the fifth round, that’s a fair price. Embiid is at his lowest weight since his rookie season, so hopefully he can buck his trend of missing a bulk of the season because of injury.

My pick: I still didn’t have a big, and Julius Randle at 59 was the best player on my board. I have him 41st, and his ADP is 68.8. He’s not flashy, but he produces, and he’ll have a ton of usage and opportunities to generate counting stats playing with Michael Porter Jr. and a young Nets team.

Round 6

Pick

Player

Team

Damian Lillard, POR – PG

Justin’s Phenomenal Team

Ivica Zubac, IND – C

Dan Titus

Dyson Daniels, ATL – SG/SF

Karan_Talwar27

Zach Edey, MEM – C

Alex Barutha

Jarrett Allen, CLE – C

Adam Elite Fantasy Basketball

Ryan Rollins, MIL – PG/SG

@AintDunneYet

Payton Pritchard, BOS – PG

Aaron Bruski – SportsEthos

VJ Edgecombe, PHI – PG/SG

Benjamin Zweiman – Yahoo Fantasy

Onyeka Okongwu, ATL – C

Raphielle’s Official Team

Tyler Herro, MIL – PG/SG

SteveSaintP

Rudy Gobert, MIN – C

Austin’s Agreeable Team

Naz Reid, CHA – PF/C

Papi’s Pleasant Team

Here’s the biggest takeaway from this draft: the center run hit in Round 6. From pick 62 through 79, 10 of 18 picks were C-eligible: Ivica Zubac, Zach Edey, Jarrett Allen, Onyeka Okongwu, Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid, Alex Sarr, Kel’el Ware, Derik Queen and Zion Williamson. By the time it was over, the tier of starting centers projected for 35-plus FPPG were gone.

If you’re planning to wait on centers in a points league, this is your deadline. Plan to have your starting C locked in by the middle of Round 6, because the next tier comes with a lot more risk.

Okongwu went 14 picks after his ADP (54.9), and he’s my 54th-ranked player, so Team Raphielle got a nice discount at 69.

My pick: Six rounds in and my only center-eligible player was Randle. To build out my frontcourt a bit, I grabbed Ivica Zubac at 62. A double-double shouldn’t be an issue and I secured the Haliburton-Zubac stack. I’m projecting Zu to put up 14.8 points and 11.2 rebounds on 63% shooting, good for 38.1 FPPG. I reached by my own numbers, but I knew the run was coming. Edey and Allen were gone within three picks, so I don’t regret it.

Round 7

Pick

Player

Team

Alex Sarr, WAS – C

Papi’s Pleasant Team

Brandon Ingram, LAC – SG/SF/PF

Austin’s Agreeable Team

Kel’el Ware, MIL – C

SteveSaintP

OG Anunoby, NYK – SF/PF

Raphielle’s Official Team

Derik Queen, NOP – PF/C

Benjamin Zweiman – Yahoo Fantasy

Jaden McDaniels, MIN – SF

Aaron Bruski – SportsEthos

Zion Williamson, NOP – PF/C

@AintDunneYet

Coby White, CHA – PG/SG

Adam Elite Fantasy Basketball

Kon Knueppel, CHA – SG/SF

Alex Barutha

Ausar Thompson, DET – SG/SF/PF

Karan_Talwar27

De’Aaron Fox, SAS – PG

Dan Titus

Caleb Wilson, CHI – PF

Justin’s Phenomenal Team

The run kept going into Round 7, with Sarr, Ware and Queen off the board in the first five picks. Zion Williamson at 79 is a pick I really like for Team Dunne. I have him 42nd, and he’s projected for 37.9 FPPG. Williamson’s availability is always a question, but in Round 7, you’re getting paid to take that risk.

The biggest faller of the entire draft came at 81. Kon Knueppel went 33 spots after his Yahoo ADP (47.6). That’s not a market mistake in points leagues, though. I have Knueppel 79th because he’ll miss the entire preseason with a hamstring injury and efficiency not factoring into scoring neutralizes one of his greatest attributes in fantasy. He’s a much better 9-cat player than a points one.

My pick: De’Aaron Fox at 83 was another value on my board. I have him 57th, so he lasted 26 spots past where I’d take him. I think he’s falling in drafts because drafters remember how bad he was on the biggest stage. However, he was injured and in the regular season he was more than solid in his first full season with the Spurs. In my opinion, buying into two Spurs guards is never a bad idea.

Round 8

Pick

Player

Team

AJ Dybantsa, WAS – SF

Justin’s Phenomenal Team

Ja Morant, POR – PG

Dan Titus

Paul George, BOS – SF/PF

Karan_Talwar27

Immanuel Quickley, TOR – PG/SG

Alex Barutha

Josh Hart, NYK – SG/SF

Adam Elite Fantasy Basketball

Mikal Bridges, NYK – SF/PF

@AintDunneYet

Nic Claxton, CHI – C

Aaron Bruski – SportsEthos

Cedric Coward, MEM – SG/SF

Benjamin Zweiman – Yahoo Fantasy

Ty Jerome, MEM – PG/SG

Raphielle’s Official Team

Collin Murray-Boyles, TOR – PF/C

SteveSaintP

Myles Turner, MIL – C

Austin’s Agreeable Team

Dylan Harper, SAS – PG/SG

Papi’s Pleasant Team

The rookies started flying off the board. Team Justin took Caleb Wilson at 84 and AJ Dybantsa at 85, and he wasn’t done (Darryn Peterson in Round 10, second-year player Ace Bailey in Round 11). That’s the most youth-heavy build in the league. Dybantsa went a few picks after his ADP (79.1), but I have him 102nd, so I’m lower than the market on his first-year production. The rookies Justin selected are all score-first guys who will likely miss a ton of shots. Points leagues insulate against that, so as long as they’re getting minutes with a defined role, they could be useful in points formats in the later rounds.

Nic Claxton (91) and Myles Turner (95) were the last of the starting-caliber centers. Team SteveSaintP took Collin Murray-Boyles at 94, a big jump from his spot in Yahoo ADP (145th). I have Murray-Boyles 116th, but I’m cool with it, given how I think he’s one of the best sleepers in fantasy this season. Claxton will miss time and rather than stash him, pick someone else in that range who can produce fantasy points now.

My pick: I think this is an overcorrection falling this low. I took Ja Morant at 86th overall but I have him 45th, and his Yahoo ADP is 90th. The market still doesn’t trust him and rightfully so. Still, Morant is more than capable of averaging 20-3-7 and is coming at a pretty affordable price. He’s boom-or-bust, but this is the round to take that shot. If he stays healthy, he’s a top-50 points player or possibly higher.

Round 9

Pick

Player

Team

Norman Powell, CHI – SG/SF

Papi’s Pleasant Team

DeMar DeRozan, DEN – SF/PF

Austin’s Agreeable Team

Isaiah Hartenstein, OKC – C

SteveSaintP

100

Jabari Smith Jr., HOU – PF/C

Raphielle’s Official Team

101

Day’Ron Sharpe, BKN – C

Benjamin Zweiman – Yahoo Fantasy

102

Neemias Queta, BOS – C

Aaron Bruski – SportsEthos

103

Darius Acuff Jr., SAC – PG

@AintDunneYet

104

Jalen Green, PHX – SG/SF

Adam Elite Fantasy Basketball

105

CJ McCollum, ATL – PG/SG

Alex Barutha

106

Jalen Suggs, ORL – PG/SG

Karan_Talwar27

107

RJ Barrett, TOR – SG/SF/PF

Dan Titus

108

Andrew Wiggins, MIA – SG/SF/PF

Justin’s Phenomenal Team

Managers who waited on bigs went back to the well for a mini-run: Isaiah Hartenstein, Jabari Smith Jr., Day’Ron Sharpe and Neemias Queta went back-to-back at picks 99 through 102. Queta at 102 was a modest reach (Yahoo ADP: 117), but in points, a center projected for 7.7 rebounds and 1.2 blocks will make it to 12-team leagues.

DeMar DeRozan at 98 was another early pick by Yahoo ADP (107.4). While that one lines up with my board (I have him ranked 97th), I’m fading DeRozan with him coming off the bench. Rookie Darius Acuff Jr. at 103 is a pick I like. I have him 87th, ahead of his ADP of 109.6.

My pick: RJ Barrett at 107 was my best value left. I have him 83rd, and he sits 112th in Yahoo ADP. He’s often overlooked, especially in points formats where he can just do him and not worry about the turnovers, poor FT percentage and his shot not falling at times. Adding Kawhi should help draw more defensive attention, which should work out well for Barrett.

Round 10

Pick

Player

Team

109

Darryn Peterson, UTA – SG

Justin’s Phenomenal Team

110

Keegan Murray, SAC – SF/PF

Dan Titus

111

Jeremiah Fears, NOP – PG/SG

Karan_Talwar27

112

John Collins, DET – PF/C

Alex Barutha

113

Brandin Podziemski, GSW – PG/SG

Adam Elite Fantasy Basketball

114

Miles Bridges, PHX – PF

@AintDunneYet

115

Rui Hachimura, LAC – SF/PF

Aaron Bruski – SportsEthos

116

Jaime Jaquez Jr., MIL – SG/SF/PF

Benjamin Zweiman – Yahoo Fantasy

117

Davion Mitchell, MIA – PG

Raphielle’s Official Team

118

Zach LaVine, SAC – PG/SG/SF

SteveSaintP

119

Andrew Nembhard, IND – PG/SG

Austin’s Agreeable Team

120

Jusuf Nurkić, UTA – C

Papi’s Pleasant Team

From here on, ADP basically went out the window. Picks in Rounds 1 through 3 landed within about four spots of their Yahoo ADP on average. By Rounds 10 through 13, the average gap was 25 spots. Part of that is how Yahoo ADP works late in drafts (values bunch up between about 116 and 121), but most of it is managers targeting their guys.

The best lesson of the late rounds came at pick 120. Team Papi took Jusuf Nurkić, who projects for 34.4 FPPG. Compare that to the guards taken around him: Davion Mitchell (117) projects for 23.1 FPPG and Jeremiah Fears (111) for 26.5. In points leagues, a late-round big gives you a lot more production than a late-round guard. Team Papi ended up with six C-eligible players, the most in the draft, and Jokić is only one of them.

My pick: This is one spot where Yahoo ADP and I disagree. I took Keegan Murray at 110, and he sits 120th in Yahoo ADP. On my board, he’s 107th, so I got him three spots late. Murray is projected for 34.4 minutes per game with 6 rebounds and nearly one steal and one block, good for 31.5 FPPG. That’s starter-level production at a bench price. He’s being paid like a star, and the Kings need him to perform like one.

Rest of the Draft

Here’s how the rest of the draft unfolded, as managers took shots on late-round sleepers.

A few things stood out. Kristaps Porziņģis (ADP 101.3) went undrafted, likely because he’s out indefinitely with an undisclosed illness. Jonathan Kuminga, Bennedict Mathurin and Nikola Vučević went undrafted, too. If we redrafted, I think Kuminga would be drafted late. He looked pretty dynamic in his preseason debut with the Wolves. The others, I expect, will be streaming options who would gain relevancy if an injury occurs.

Round 13 brought the upside swings: rookie Keaton Wagler (who should benefit from Max Strus’ foot injury), Ajay Mitchell, Cason Wallace and Kevin Porter Jr. all went. That’s how a final round should look. Take your shots on players with higher ceilings if something goes wrong.

As for my last three picks, Aaron Gordon (131) and Draymond Green (134) give me some frontcourt depth after I waited on bigs. I closed with Jimmy Butler III at 155 as a stash. My projections only have him for 36 games, but if he’s healthy for the second half, he’s a starter in this format. Right now, the belief is Butler should return sometime in early 2027.

Round 11

Pick

Player

Team

121

Ayo Dosunmu, MIN – PG/SG

Papi’s Pleasant Team

122

Jrue Holiday, POR – PG/SG

Austin’s Agreeable Team

123

Khaman Maluach, PHX – C

SteveSaintP

124

Saddiq Bey, NOP – SF/PF

Raphielle’s Official Team

125

Reed Sheppard, HOU – PG/SG

Benjamin Zweiman – Yahoo Fantasy

126

Toumani Camara, POR – SF/PF

Aaron Bruski – SportsEthos

127

Mikel Brown Jr., BKN – PG

@AintDunneYet

128

Jakob Poeltl, TOR – C

Adam Elite Fantasy Basketball

129

Anthony Black, ORL – PG/SG/SF

Alex Barutha

130

Peyton Watson, CLE – SF/PF

Karan_Talwar27

131

Aaron Gordon, DEN – PF/C

Dan Titus

132

Ace Bailey, UTA – SF/PF

Justin’s Phenomenal Team

Round 12

Pick

Player

Team

133

Quentin Grimes, LAL – SG/SF

Justin’s Phenomenal Team

134

Draymond Green, GSW – PF/C

Dan Titus

135

Yaxel Lendeborg, GSW – PF

Karan_Talwar27

136

Kyshawn George, WAS – SG/SF/PF

Alex Barutha

137

Egor Dëmin, BKN – PG/SG

Adam Elite Fantasy Basketball

138

Scotty Pippen Jr., MEM – PG

@AintDunneYet

139

Daniel Gafford, DAL – C

Aaron Bruski – SportsEthos

140

Maxime Raynaud, SAC – C

Benjamin Zweiman – Yahoo Fantasy

141

Christian Braun, DEN – SG/SF/PF

Raphielle’s Official Team

142

Fred VanVleet, HOU – PG

SteveSaintP

143

Pelle Larsson, MIA – SG/SF

Austin’s Agreeable Team

144

Wendell Carter Jr., ORL – C

Papi’s Pleasant Team

Round 13

Pick

Player

Team

145

Collin Gillespie, PHX – PG/SG

Papi’s Pleasant Team

146

Tari Eason, HOU – SG/SF/PF

Austin’s Agreeable Team

147

Grayson Allen, CHA – SG/SF

SteveSaintP

148

Ajay Mitchell, OKC – PG/SG

Raphielle’s Official Team

149

Cason Wallace, OKC – PG/SG/SF

Benjamin Zweiman – Yahoo Fantasy

150

Kevin Porter Jr., MIL – PG/SG

Aaron Bruski – SportsEthos

151

Keaton Wagler, LAC – SG

@AintDunneYet

152

P.J. Washington, DAL – PF/C

Adam Elite Fantasy Basketball

153

Collin Sexton, LAL – PG/SG

Alex Barutha

154

Yves Missi, NOP – C

Karan_Talwar27

155

Jimmy Butler III, GSW – SF/PF

Dan Titus

156

Sandro Mamukelashvili, LAL – PF/C

Justin’s Phenomenal Team

Tags: