ATP Tour
What are Alcaraz & Sinner’s World No. 1 scenarios at the US Open?
Alcaraz will climb to No. 1 in the PIF ATP Live Rankings Sunday
August 23, 2025
Elsa y Sarah Stier/Getty Images
Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner are battling for World No. 1 at the US Open.
By ATP Staff
Jannik Sinner first reached the pinnacle of the PIF ATP Rankings on 10 June 2024, and the Italian has not relinquished top spot since. Will Carlos Alcaraz recapture World No. 1 over the coming fortnight at the US Open?
Both men could leave New York as World No. 1, but the Spaniard is in pole position. If Alcaraz reaches the same round as Sinner or outperforms his rival in New York, he will return to No. 1 for the first time since 10 September 2023.
PIF ATP Live Rankings: Alcaraz & Sinner By Round
Player
Carlos Alcaraz
Jannik Sinner
R128
9,550
9,490
R64
9,590
9,530
R32
9,640
9,580
R16
9,740
9,680
QF
9,940
9,880
SF
10,340
10,280
RU
10,840
10,780
W
11,540
11,480
As soon as the first main draw ball is struck at Flushing Meadows, Alcaraz will become the No. 1 player in the PIF ATP Live Rankings, because Sinner will drop the 2,000 points he earned from winning the title last year. Alcaraz earned only 50 points in 2024 after falling to Botic van de Zandschulp in the second round.
To have any chance of retaining his position, Sinner must reach the third round. The good news for the Italian is that he has not fallen short of the quarter-finals at a Grand Slam tournament since the 2023 US Open, when he lost in the fourth round.
Sinner has won three consecutive hard-court majors — the Australian Open and US Open in 2024 and the Australian Open this year — stringing together 21 consecutive victories at those events. So he can very well hold on to World No. 1. He begins his 64th week atop the PIF ATP Rankings, the fourth-longest first-time steak at the top of any member of the ATP No. 1 Club.
However, by winning the Cincinnati Open Alcaraz has put himself in position to control his own destiny in New York. If the 22-year-old wins the title, he will earn World No. 1, too. If Sinner loses in the third round or earlier, Alcaraz only needs to make the second round to pass his rival.
Three years ago, Alcaraz first rose to the top by winning his first Grand Slam tournament at Flushing Meadows. By doing so, he became the youngest member of the ATP No. 1 Club in history, aged 19.