Immigration Minister Lena Metlege Diab, shown in the House of Commons last month, is preparing to announce the government’s immigration targets for the next three years.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
Public opposition to immigration has shifted, with the proportion of Canadians who think too many people are moving here declining by 10 percentage points since 2024, a new poll by the Environics Institute has found.
The findings come as Immigration Minister Lena Metlege Diab prepares to announce in the coming weeks the government’s immigration targets for the next three years, both for permanent and temporary residents, including international students.
The government is facing calls to increase the numbers of immigrants it will admit to meet skills gaps to supply the work force needed for Prime Minister Mark Carney’s ambitious list of major projects, including a new oil pipeline to the West Coast.
Laurie Frigon, director of public affairs at the Canadian Construction Association, said there are shortages of skilled trades workers across the country, including bricklayers in Ontario, carpenters in Quebec and heavy equipment operators – such as digger drivers – in Saskatchewan.
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The construction industry will need to recruit 306,200 workers by 2034, largely to replace retirees. Almost 272,000 young people are expected to join the industry, leaving a shortfall of about 34,300 workers, she said.
“We’ve been advocating for the immigration system that helps employers assemble and retain the crew that we need,” she said. “That means selecting workers based on demonstrated occupational and regional shortages.”
Meanwhile, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland are pressing Ottawa to give them more powers over which permanent residents they can select and to increase the number of foreign nationals they can nominate to fill local job shortages.
Public support for immigration has plummeted in recent years, after a rapid increase in new arrivals to the country. The number of newcomers doubled from 1.2 million in 2021 to 2.4 million in 2023.
Between 2022 and 2024, the proportion of Canadians who thought there was too much immigration doubled from 27 per cent to 58 per cent, the Environics Institute’s surveys showed.
In response to plummeting public support, starting in 2024, the federal government reduced the number of permanent residents it would accept each year, and capped the number of international student visas it issued. This led to a small drop in Canada’s population in 2025.
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A poll carried out last month by the Environics Institute found that Canadians are now evenly split on whether there is too much immigration: 48 per cent of those polled agreed with the proposition while 48 per cent disagreed.
It found people in Alberta – where this month’s referendum found a majority wanted the province to have more control over selecting newcomers – were more likely (58 per cent) than in other provinces to think there is too much immigration.
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Across Canada, the proportion of white and racialized Canadians who think there is too much immigration is broadly similar, with 51 per cent of racialized Canadians supporting this view, compared to 47 per cent of white residents.
The poll by the Environics Institute, in partnership with Toronto Metropolitan University’s Diversity Institute, found that three-quarters of Canadians think that immigration has a positive impact on the economy, compared to 68 per cent in 2024. Large majorities of Liberal and NDP supporters believe this, but the opinion of Conservative supporters is divided.
Wendy Cukier, professor of entrepreneurship and strategy at TMU’s Ted Rogers School of Management, said the latest polling “shows a course correction and reaffirms that Canadians value immigration.”
“I hope we see increases in immigration levels, realigned with our economic goals while maintaining our humanitarian obligations,” Prof. Cukier said. “After the immigration cuts, employers made it clear that the cuts were too deep, affecting their ability to run their businesses and impeding their ability to meet Canada’s ambitions. Our population is aging and we need immigrants to fill labour market needs.”
However, Andrew Parkin, executive director of the Environics Institute, cautioned that the public needs to be persuaded that any immigration increases are being done prudently. He warned that “there’s nothing that says these numbers can’t reverse again.”
Last year, the government said it would freeze the number of new permanent residents at 380,000 a year until 2028. It also cut the number of international students it planned to admit over the next three years in half.
Lisa Lalande, chief executive officer of the Century Initiative, a non-profit think tank that wants to see Canada’s population grow to 100 million by 2100, said immigration could help address skills shortages in a number of sectors.
A new paper by the think tank warns that Canada’s defence industrial strategy, which aims for 70 per cent of defence contracts to be awarded to Canadian firms, could be stymied by work force shortages.
The paper points to a shortage of 25,000 workers in the cybersecurity sector, as well as tens of thousands of workers needed to fill transportation and non-residential construction jobs.
“Canada is making some of the largest commitments in generations to strengthen our defence, sovereignty and economic security. But have we connected those ambitions to the work force required to deliver them?” Ms. Lalande said. “If we don’t have the people and skills to build our defence industries, critical infrastructure and emerging technologies here at home, we risk becoming more dependent on other countries rather than less.”
Ms. Lalande said a personal support worker filling an acute shortage in a rural community is as essential to Canada’s long-term strength as a technology entrepreneur creating new businesses.
The Environics Institute poll found that almost three-quarters of Canadians think the government should encourage more entrepreneurs to immigrate to Canada and start new businesses here.
But it found that 63 per cent of first-generation immigrants think that too many newcomers are not adopting Canadian values. This view is held by 57 per cent of Canadians whose families have been here for three generations or more.
The number of Canadians who think that many refugees are not legitimate has not dropped significantly. Between 2023 and 2025 those holding this view rose by 10 percentage points, from 36 to 46 per cent. In September’s poll, 44 per cent said they thought many refugees who come to Canada do not have genuine claims.
The telephone survey of 2,000 Canadians, carried out between Sept. 8 and 21, is accurate to within plus or minus 2.2 percentage points 19 times out of 20.