Remove garbage time, fourth downs and turnovers — getting to the root of a team’s defensive effectiveness — and Baltimore is 14th in EPA/Play and 19th in Success Rate allowed. That’s actually flattering, because when you factor in that the Ravens don’t turn opponents over (just three interceptions and three fumble recoveries), the numbers get worse.
The Bills defense isn’t any good at all, but that hasn’t been an issue for a Josh Allen-led offense that has outscored its opponents in an absurd four wins when they’ve allowed 30-plus points.
Coming off a bye, there’s been two weeks for development in this transitional season for Buffalo’s defense under Jim Leonhard, giving more time for the incremental improvement of a young unit.
Lamar Jackson is expected to return, and it’s possible that -2.5 shows up once that’s official, but if he isn’t able to go, this line should be north of a touchdown. Given the nature of Jackson’s injury and history, the chance of re-injury is higher than usual. Meanwhile, even if he were 100% throughout, the Ravens’ market rating is still clinging to dominant first halves against the Colts and Titans, and the assumption that the Ravens offense can go shot-for-shot with Buffalo is too far a reach.