{"id":109439,"date":"2025-08-31T08:14:05","date_gmt":"2025-08-31T08:14:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/109439\/"},"modified":"2025-08-31T08:14:05","modified_gmt":"2025-08-31T08:14:05","slug":"maple-leafs-senators-breakout-player-playoffs-salary-floor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/109439\/","title":{"rendered":"Maple Leafs, Senators, Breakout Player, Playoffs, Salary Floor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag including a prediction for a breakout player, potential teams to make and miss the playoffs, and more.\u00a0 If your question doesn\u2019t appear here, check back in our last two mailbag<\/a> columns<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Spaced-Cowboy: Who do you expect to be the top 6 forward group for the Leafs come opening night or perhaps the deadline?<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s get the easy ones out of the way first.\u00a0 The top two centers will continue to be Auston Matthews<\/a> and John Tavares<\/a>.\u00a0 On the wing, William Nylander<\/a> and Matthew Knies<\/a>, fresh off a new deal this summer, are sure bets to play similar roles as they did last season.<\/p>\n

But then it starts to get interesting.\u00a0 I\u2019d pencil in Matias Maccelli<\/a> for one of the remaining winger spots.\u00a0 It\u2019s not that Toronto paid a high price to get him that warrants a look in a key role, nor does his performance from last season which left a lot to be desired.\u00a0 But he\u2019s a pure playmaker and with Mitch Marner<\/a> departing, Maccelli could plausibly slide into that same role alongside Matthews and Knies to try to keep the same general line structure intact.\u00a0 He showed enough skill in Arizona to make me think that he can have some success in that role.<\/p>\n

The other winger might be Max Domi<\/a>, more by process of elimination.\u00a0 I expect head coach Craig Berube to put a third line together that will have some size and defensive acumen with a trio of newcomers Dakota Joshua<\/a> and Joshua Roy<\/a> with possibly Bobby McMann<\/a> on the other wing.\u00a0 Domi doesn\u2019t fit on that line, nor is he a great fit on the fourth line either.\u00a0 At this point, Toronto\u2019s preference is probably to keep him on the wing anyway so his spot on the second line feels like a mixture of fit and convenience.\u00a0 Easton Cowan<\/a> could play his way into the mix but starting with the AHL Marlies feels like the likeliest outcome.<\/p>\n

Forecasting the trade deadline is a little difficult as like many, I don\u2019t think Toronto is done yet this summer.\u00a0 We know they want to move out David Kampf<\/a> and Calle Jarnkrok<\/a> and doing so would greatly change their salary cap forecast, unless that money is going to Jack Roslovic<\/a> who has been linked to them for a while now (but might not supplant Domi in that top-six spot anyway).\u00a0 If they wind up opening up more room before the season and hold it heading into the deadline, they could afford a top-end acquisition while if they can only move one and spend those savings plus more on Roslovic, they could be shopping in more of the secondary market.\u00a0 How they operate these next few weeks could materially impact their plans in March.<\/p>\n

sluggersdad: What is Ottawa\u2019s next move in upgrading their roster? Thanks\u2026<\/p>\n

This is a hard one to project.\u00a0 They have nearly $4.3MM in cap space per PuckPedia<\/a> which has them in a good spot in theory to add before the season starts.\u00a0 However, we also know that they are a \u2018cash over cap\u2019 team as owner Michael Andlauer alluded to<\/a> back in June.\u00a0 Why that matters is that because of that status, GM Steve Staios acknowledged that he wasn\u2019t going to have the green light to spend to the cap ceiling this summer.\u00a0 So, while they have close to $4.3MM in cap room, how much budget room do they have left?<\/p>\n

There\u2019s also the matter of bonuses, of which they have $3.75MM between Claude Giroux<\/a> and Lars Eller<\/a>.\u00a0 Some of them are pretty easy to reach based on games played while others will require some playoff success as well.\u00a0 But for a cash over cap franchise, any achieved bonuses become payable when reached.\u00a0 Honestly, I\u2019m not sure they have much, if any, wiggle room in the budget right now to upgrade their roster.<\/p>\n

I\u2019d like to give you a specific answer here but in the short term, I don\u2019t think they\u2019re going to do anything.\u00a0 I could see them sniffing around the PTO market a little bit, especially on the back end if it looks like Nick Jensen<\/a> is indeed going to miss some time to start the season even though he\u2019s ahead of schedule in his recovery and maybe there\u2019s a minimum-salary contract that comes out of that.\u00a0 But beyond that, their next move might be at the trade deadline when they have a better sense of their revenue situation that will dictate if they can actually go ahead and add to their player cost budget.\u00a0 At that point, it would be assess the team\u2019s biggest need and go from there.<\/p>\n

NhaTrang: Training camp looms soon, so it\u2019s time for me to come out with my annual \u201cTage Thompson<\/a>\u201d question for Brian: who is the guy who comes out of absolutely nowhere to be a significant impact player this season?<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, my track record continues to go in the wrong direction.\u00a0 Thompson was a great pick the first time.\u00a0 Taylor Raddysh<\/a> had 20 goals the year I picked him but wasn\u2019t a big breakout player.\u00a0 I was a year early on Morgan Geekie<\/a> as it turns out; I picked him in his 39-point year, not his 33-goal effort last season.\u00a0 And last year\u2019s was arguably the worst one as Kirby Dach<\/a> battled injuries, as did his projected linemate in Patrik Laine<\/a>.\u00a0 The end result was 22 points in 57 games so that one\u2019s a whiff.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>For 2022-23, I put in a self-imposed criterion that a player couldn\u2019t be in the top 300 in scoring.\u00a0 Otherwise, that player wouldn\u2019t exactly be coming out of nowhere.\u00a0 Given my recent track record, it\u2019s tempting to change it but I\u2019ll continue to stick with it for this year.<\/p>\n

I had my best pick with Buffalo so it\u2019s time to go back to that well with winger Zach Benson<\/a>.\u00a0 Yes, his sophomore year wasn\u2019t really any better on paper than his rookie campaign but 28 points in 75 games is still respectable for someone who still could have been playing at the major junior level.\u00a0 And the underlying numbers were pretty solid.\u00a0 Benson should have a top-six role this season (possibly even playing with Thompson) and I expect him to have a breakout effort.\u00a0 If all goes well, doubling last year\u2019s point total could be doable and that would be a nice rebound after last year\u2019s pick.<\/p>\n

Breakaway: 4-in and 4-out.<\/p>\n

Name one team from each division that made the playoffs last year that will not make the playoffs this year. And what four teams replace them?<\/p>\n

Atlantic: I would say Toronto and Tampa Bay remain safe bets to get back in.\u00a0 Florida should be unless Matthew Tkachuk<\/a>\u2019s absence proves to be a big problem and they start out how they played down the stretch last season before flipping the script in the playoffs.\u00a0 Ottawa is more or less the same and on the way up so I\u2019m pretty comfortable penciling them in as well.\u00a0 By process of elimination, that would mean my pick would be Montreal.\u00a0 They had some good luck on the injury front last year and their underlying numbers weren\u2019t great.\u00a0 I could see a scenario where they actually play a bit better this season but instead of just making the playoffs, they just miss them.<\/p>\n

The challenge is that I have to pick one of the other three to replace them, something I\u2019m not overly confident in.\u00a0 I expect Boston\u2019s lack of offense to be their downfall and as much as I think Buffalo is capable of improving, their annual self-destruction makes it hard to actually predict that happening.\u00a0 So I guess it\u2019s Detroit by default with John Gibson<\/a> giving their goaltending enough of a boost.\u00a0 But really, this side of the bracket could largely remain the same next season.<\/p>\n

Metropolitan: Carolina is always a top regular season team and they\u2019ve improved so they\u2019re in.\u00a0 New Jersey slipped down the stretch due to injuries but I still think they\u2019re on the way up so I\u2019d have them in.\u00a0 On the one hand, Washington won the division last year and didn\u2019t change their roster up much but on the other hand, many felt they were a bubble team at best heading into last season.\u00a0 Did they overachieve?\u00a0 I guess since I have to pick one to fall out of the race, it\u2019s them.<\/p>\n

On the other end, I don\u2019t expect Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, or the Islanders to be real threats.\u00a0 Columbus is on the way up but as I noted in a recent mailbag, I don\u2019t trust their goaltending to be good enough to get them in there.\u00a0 That leaves the Rangers.\u00a0 Things have to be better for them this season, doesn\u2019t it?\u00a0 Odds being odds, some of their underachievers will turn things around which might be enough to get them back in.<\/p>\n

Central: I see no reason to take Dallas or Colorado out.\u00a0 Winnipeg may very well drop a bit but as long as Connor Hellebuyck<\/a> remains one of the top netminders, they should be fine.\u00a0 That leaves St. Louis and Minnesota.\u00a0 I could make a case for either one making or missing but I\u2019ll go with the Blues continuing their strong play under Jim Montgomery and getting a Wild Card spot and the Wild missing.\u00a0 For all the cap space they had this summer, they didn\u2019t get a whole lot better unless Vladimir Tarasenko<\/a> has a resurgence.\u00a0 A full season from Kirill Kaprizov<\/a> would help but given Jesper Wallstedt<\/a>\u2019s struggles in the AHL last year, their goaltending is more of a question mark than they probably hoped.<\/p>\n

As for who gets in, Chicago is a safe no.\u00a0 I think Nashville will be better than last year and they have the veteran talent to surprise and get back in.\u00a0 But I\u2019ll go with Utah, a team that\u2019s slowly getting better and just added a top-six talent in JJ Peterka<\/a>.\u00a0 That, coupled with continued improvement from their young core, means that this could be the year for them to get back in.<\/p>\n

Pacific: There\u2019s no reason to think Edmonton and Vegas won\u2019t get back in.\u00a0 I have no reason to think the Kings won\u2019t get back in either but since I have to pick one who made it to miss, I guess it\u2019s them as the third-place team.<\/p>\n

San Jose isn\u2019t ready to push for a playoff spot yet.\u00a0 Anaheim is better and a bit of a Wild Card but I think they\u2019re still on the outside for one more year.\u00a0 Seattle can\u2019t stop treading water with a core group that\u2019s not good enough so they\u2019re probably in the same boat as a year ago.\u00a0 That leaves Calgary and Vancouver.\u00a0 I feel Dustin Wolf<\/a> made the Flames more competitive than they actually were so them taking a step back wouldn\u2019t surprise me.\u00a0 That would mean Vancouver, a team that struggled mightily last year, finds a way to turn it around.\u00a0 Having said that, five Central teams and three Pacific teams might be what happens again.<\/p>\n

SirCobblestone: How do you think teams with low cap hits (San Jose, Chicago) will navigate the ELC of players worthy of staying in the show while respecting the cap floor? (23 roster player limit also.)<\/p>\n

This cap part of this question shouldn\u2019t be overly difficult this season.\u00a0 All 32 teams are already above the $70.6MM floor and once Anaheim eventually signs Mason McTavish<\/a>, every team should be $5MM clear of that floor.\u00a0 Eventually, once they start selling, they\u2019ll open up some space but there will surely be salary retention on some players while if they wait until closer to the trade deadline to make those moves, they should be able to comfortably stay above the floor.\u00a0 Any achieved bonuses from their entry-level players would also count on the books this season, also helping them stay above that minimum spending amount.<\/p>\n

As to the roster element, most of the lower-spending teams have veteran fillers on their roster that aren\u2019t really part of their plans.\u00a0 They\u2019re placeholders, if you will, until those entry-level prospects show they\u2019re ready.\u00a0 And when they\u2019re ready, they\u2019ll get the spot and the veteran will either be traded or waived and demoted to the minors.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ll use a San Jose example since you brought them up.\u00a0 Let\u2019s say Sam Dickinson<\/a> shows in training camp that he\u2019s ready for NHL duty, or at least a look with the Sharks to start.\u00a0 Yes, they already have eight blueliners on their roster but someone like Vincent Desharnais<\/a> is clearly not part of their long-term plans.\u00a0 He was acquired as a low-cost roster filler before they knew they\u2019d be adding three veteran blueliners over the summer.\u00a0 If they have to trade or waive him to open up a spot for Dickinson, they\u2019re not going to think twice about it, they\u2019ll just do it.\u00a0 And if it\u2019s the latter with him passing through unclaimed, the net savings to San Jose would only be just over $200K, barely enough to make a difference from a cap perspective while a player in and a player out keeps them in compliance with the roster limit.<\/p>\n

I think you might be ahead of the game with this question.\u00a0 A few years from now when the cap is much higher and more teams are operating with an internal budget that\u2019s closer to the floor than the ceiling, I could see this question being asked as those teams might not have pricey placeholder veterans anymore but rather lower-cost ones.\u00a0 Perhaps at that point, this could be an issue but for the upcoming season, teams should be able to navigate through this just fine.<\/p>\n

Photo courtesy of Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag including a prediction for a breakout player, potential teams to…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":109440,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[433],"tags":[49,48,448,11295,2368,82],"class_list":["post-109439","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nhl","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-nhl","tag-phr-mailbag","tag-pro-hockey-rumors-originals","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109439","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=109439"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109439\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/109440"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=109439"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=109439"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=109439"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}