Opinion by: David Carvalho, founder, CEO and chief scientist of Naoris Protocol<\/p>\n
Satoshi Nakamoto changed how we define money. In response to the 2008 collapse of the financial institutions in which millions put their trust, Satoshi created a decentralized monetary system built on elliptic curve cryptography.<\/p>\n
This combination of cold math and decentralization was a powerful one, attracting not only diehard skeptics but also the world\u2019s largest financial institutions, such as BlackRock.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In the 16 years of its existence, Bitcoin has never been hacked. All of that is about to change very soon, however, with the advent of quantum computing. This is the biggest single threat to Bitcoin since its inception from the ashes of the global financial crisis.<\/p>\n
Once firmly in the realm of science fiction, quantum computers have become so advanced that they could plausibly rip through Bitcoin\u2019s cryptography within five years or less. Some, like quantum pundit Michele Mosca, predict<\/a> it might even be possible as soon as next year.\u00a0<\/p>\n Government agencies like the US National Institute of Standards and Technology and the National Security Agency are aiming to fully transition to quantum-secure standards by 2030. Yet the Bitcoin community appears confined to theoretical solutions, like BIP-360 (Pay-to-Quantum-Resistant-Hash) or commit-delay-reveal schemes.\u00a0<\/p>\n The time for theorizing is over. If concrete steps to adapt the Bitcoin blockchain aren\u2019t taken now, Bitcoin\u2019s (BTC<\/a>) entire $2.2-trillion market cap could go up in smoke. All it would take would be one compromised wallet or botched transaction to erode 16 years of painstakingly built trust.<\/p>\n The rise of supercomputers<\/p>\n This year\u2019s real breakthrough was Microsoft\u2019s Majorana chip, which accelerated the timeline to creating a truly useful quantum supercomputer from decades to years. In simple terms, it did so by paving the way to scalable and stable quantum systems \u2014 two of the key issues standing in the way of this technological miracle.\u00a0<\/p>\n Fast forward a few months, and we currently find ourselves with around 100 quantum computers operating in the world already. McKinsey estimates<\/a> there will be 5,000 by 2030. These computers aren\u2019t just faster than the machines we\u2019re all used to \u2014 they\u2019re an entirely new breed of computer that runs calculations in parallel instead of in sequence.\u00a0<\/p>\n Recent: Is Bitcoin\u2019s future at risk from quantum tech?<\/a><\/p>\n This is lethal to classical cryptography, like the ECDSA algorithm that protects Bitcoin\u2019s private keys. At least 30% of Bitcoin, or around 6.2 million coins, are currently sitting in pay-to-public-key (P2PK) or reused P2PK-hash addresses, which are particularly vulnerable to this quantum threat.\u00a0<\/p>\n A breach would be catastrophic for holders, whose funds would be gone forever, and the ecosystem at large. It would prove that the unbreakable system can be broken. That\u2019s why BlackRock recently acknowledged the threat of quantum to Bitcoin<\/a> in its updated spot ETF filing. That\u2019s why the time to act is now, before it\u2019s too late.<\/p>\n Prepping for Q-Day<\/p>\n