{"id":116763,"date":"2025-09-03T13:08:09","date_gmt":"2025-09-03T13:08:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/116763\/"},"modified":"2025-09-03T13:08:09","modified_gmt":"2025-09-03T13:08:09","slug":"the-best-nfl-bets-for-week-1-upsets-incoming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/116763\/","title":{"rendered":"The Best NFL Bets for Week 1: Upsets Incoming?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"ui-rounded-5xl ui-w-fit ui-items-center motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-font-gt-america ui-py-2.5 ui-px-4 ui-text-body-md-medium ui-text-white ui-bg-white\/10 ui-border-white ui-backdrop-blur-[3px] hover:ui-bg-white hover:ui-text-black ui-hidden lg:ui-flex\" data-sentry-element=\"Comp\" data-sentry-component=\"Tag\" data-sentry-source-file=\"tag.tsx\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theringer.com\/topic\/nfl\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">NFL<\/a><a class=\"ui-rounded-5xl ui-w-fit ui-items-center motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-font-gt-america ui-py-2 ui-px-3 ui-text-body-sm-medium ui-text-white ui-bg-white\/10 ui-border-white ui-backdrop-blur-[3px] hover:ui-bg-white hover:ui-text-black ui-flex lg:ui-hidden\" data-sentry-element=\"Comp\" data-sentry-component=\"Tag\" data-sentry-source-file=\"tag.tsx\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theringer.com\/topic\/nfl\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">NFL<\/a>Favorites dominated last season. Will that trend continue as the new season kicks off?<img alt=\"\" data-sentry-element=\"Image\" data-sentry-source-file=\"article-hero.tsx\" fetchpriority=\"high\" loading=\"eager\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"fill\" class=\"ui-object-cover ui-rounded-4xl\" style=\"position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;object-position:53% 36%;color:transparent\"   src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/1756904888_355_image\"\/>Getty Images\/Ringer illustration<a data-sentry-element=\"Link\" data-sentry-source-file=\"article-info-block.tsx\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theringer.com\/creator\/anthony-dabbundo\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img alt=\"\" data-sentry-element=\"Image\" data-sentry-source-file=\"article-info-block.tsx\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"56\" height=\"56\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"1\" class=\"ui-object-cover h-full w-full rounded-full border grayscale ui-border ui-border-black\" style=\"color:transparent;object-position:50% 50%\"  src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/1756904889_999_image\"\/><\/a>By <a class=\"text-body-md-medium lg:text-body-lg-medium hover:opacity-70\" data-sentry-element=\"Link\" data-sentry-source-file=\"article-info-block.tsx\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theringer.com\/creator\/anthony-dabbundo\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Anthony Dabbundo<\/a>Sept. 3, 12:10 pm UTC \u2022 17 min<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">There comes a point in the NFL preseason when you get really tired of theorizing. There\u2019s only so much you can say while trying to project who\u2019s going to take the leap or which team will fall off. At some point, we all just need games to talk about again. No more training camp heroes, or \u201cbest shape of his life\u201d commentary, or blind optimism about the outlook of a team whose real ceiling is probably 9-8.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Week 1 is upon us, with 16 games across four days and two continents. Eight hours of (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.si.com\/onsi\/athlete-lifestyle\/business\/espn-buying-nfl-redzone-means-ads-commercial-free-football-is-probably-gone-forever\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">mostly<\/a>) commercial-free football on Sunday (if you\u2019re into that kind of thing), or an NFL Sunday Ticket quad box (if you\u2019re not). The regular season kicks off in South Philly with the Eagles raising a Super Bowl banner, and Week 1 concludes in Chicago, where Bears fans are buying all of the Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams hype.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">The 2024 season was a historic one for favorites and chalk in the betting world, but this is a new year, and now it\u2019s time for more best bets.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Here are my thoughts on all 16 Week 1 games, starting with Thursday Night Football\u2019s NFC East showdown\u2014and a Week 1 Friday special. All lines are from FanDuel as of Tuesday night, unless otherwise noted.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Hold Your Nose on Opening Night: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">The market moved this spread from Eagles -6.5 to -8.5 following the trade that sent Micah Parsons from Dallas to Green Bay last week. The Eagles return 10 starters on offense and, on paper, they have a massive edge in the trenches. The Cowboys were a bottom-five run defense last year, while the Eagles finished first in rushing expected points added (EPA). It\u2019s banner night for the Super Bowl champions against their biggest division rival, and the Eagles should be able to consistently move the ball against an undersized Dallas defensive front and win the game comfortably, right? If only gambling on football were this easy.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">The Eagles defense has plenty of questions, especially in the secondary. The second cornerback spot opposite Quinyon Mitchell was a revolving door throughout training camp, and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has experimented with lining up second-year DB Cooper DeJean at nickel corner, safety, and outside corner. I have a ton of faith in Fangio, but I\u2019m concerned that the defense, which will have five new starters, is considerably less deep than last season.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">It\u2019s easy to forget that the Cowboys went 36-15 in the three regular seasons prior to 2024, when they went 7-10 and didn\u2019t have Dak Prescott for the majority of the year. Since the start of the 2021 season, Prescott ranks 10th in EPA per play among 81 quarterbacks with at least 150 plays. This tells me that when Prescott is healthy, Dallas\u2019s offense has a pretty high floor and that makes it difficult to justify an 8.5-point spread in Week 1.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Maybe Prescott is cooked coming off the second major injury to his right leg since 2020. Maybe the Eagles will pick up right where they left off in February with another dominant performance. At +6.5 or +7, I have little interest in betting on Dallas. But we\u2019ve seen Prescott succeed playing from behind late in games more than enough to trust Dallas as this line has ballooned beyond one score. It\u2019s too convenient of a narrative for me to expect the Cowboys to roll over and quit following the Parsons trade.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Verdict: Bet Cowboys +8.5 (-115)<\/p>\n<p>The S\u00e3o Paulo Special: Kansas City Chiefs (-3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Stop me if you\u2019ve heard this before: The Chiefs are a small favorite against the Chargers. It feels like the spread has been between 2.5 and 4.5 points every time these teams have played in the Patrick Mahomes\u2013vs.\u2013Justin Herbert era. And almost every time, the game is decided by one score. Herbert debuted in 2020. Here are all of his head-to-head meetings with Mahomes since then:<\/p>\n<p>Herbert&#8217;s Matchups With MahomesSeasonWeekResult20202Chiefs win 23-20 in OT20213Chargers win 30-24202115Chiefs win 34-28 in OT20222Chiefs win 27-24202211Chiefs win 30-2720237Chiefs win 31-1720244Chiefs win 17-10202414Chiefs win 19-17<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">There\u2019s a lot of optimism about the Chiefs offense returning to form as an explosive unit in 2025, thanks to improvements to the offensive line and the return of important skill position players who missed time last season. Given that Josh Simmons is a rookie left tackle, Rashee Rice is suspended for the start of the season, and the Chargers defense under DC Jesse Minter is schemed to take away explosive plays, I don\u2019t think Week 1 will be Kansas City\u2019s breakout game (if it comes at all). Of the 42 quarterbacks who had at least 200 dropbacks last year, only Gardner Minshew and Tua Tagovailoa had a lower average air yards per attempt than Mahomes last year. Given the gradual decline during his career, that\u2019s not something you can expect to snap right back to \u201cnormal.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">We\u2019ve previously seen Andy Reid unveil creative new wrinkles to his offense in Week 1, and I wouldn\u2019t put it past him to do that again, but an immediate offensive juggernaut in Kansas City isn\u2019t something I\u2019d bet on.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">I expect the Chiefs to win this game, and I\u2019d bet them at -2.5, but as long as the line stays at 3, I\u2019m sitting the Brazil game out. If you do want to bet on this game, it\u2019s important to monitor updates on the field conditions in S\u00e3o Paulo for Friday evening. The field was a mess when the Eagles and Packers played there last season, and that seemed to favor the offense and help increase the number of explosive plays.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Verdict: Lean Chiefs at -3, bet them only at -2.5<\/p>\n<p>The Favorite Five\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">I\u2019ll be highlighting my favorite five picks each week throughout the season, which will serve as a preview for my picks on The Ringer 107\u2014a season-long contest between The Bill Simmons Podcast, The Ringer NFL Show, The Ringer Gambling Show, and The Ringer Fantasy Football Show. I\u2019ll be partnering with Cousin Sal to make the Gambling Show\u2019s picks.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) at Cleveland Browns<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">It\u2019s been a dogpile on the Dawg Pound this summer, with constant media attention surrounding their fascinating (and probably disastrous) quarterback situation. Historically, divisional underdogs have been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.actionnetwork.com\/nfl\/nfl-week-1-betting-trends-stats-notes-action-network-betting-primer-3\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">tremendous<\/a> at home in Week 1, going 23-7 against the spread since 2010, per Action Network. This trend might not be specifically meaningful in any one game, but it gives credence to the idea that the market is often overconfident in projecting which teams will be really bad at the start of a new season. The Browns will probably be one of those bad teams, but at least at the start of the season, there may not be a unit in football that fits the dead-cat bounce profile more than Cleveland\u2019s offense. The trio of Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson played so poorly at quarterback last season that Joe Flacco actually might give them some consistency\u2014as well as the occasional deep ball to Jerry Jeudy. Cleveland\u2019s offensive line really struggled in 2024, in part due to injuries, but the Bengals\u2019 hapless pass rush might make the Browns\u2019 blocking look solid.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">The Browns have some real question marks in the secondary, but between the aggressive scheme of Jim Schwartz, dominant pass rusher Myles Garrett, and first-round rookie defensive tackle Mason Graham, Cleveland should be able to take advantage of a porous Cincinnati offensive line and generate pressure on Joe Burrow. The two main criticisms of Burrow are that he holds the ball too long and starts seasons slowly. Both work against him here.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">The Bengals\u2019 elite offense makes them a fun live underdog when they face the top teams, but I am happy to bet against them as a road favorite against a division opponent.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Verdict: Bet Browns +5.5<\/p>\n<p>New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-5.5)<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">If you weren\u2019t already mad at me for recommending a bet on the Cleveland Browns, you\u2019re really going to dislike me advising a wager on the New York Giants in Week 1. Favorites did historically well in 2024, in large part because the bad teams totally bottomed out. The Giants perfectly fit that description. Remember last October, when the Giants were +3 at home against the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles? They were a decently competitive team in the first half of the 2024 season.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Then the Giants pulled the plug on the Daniel Jones era and went to Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock for the rest of the year. They lost 11 of their final 12 games and wound up with the worst record in the NFC. With a tough schedule this year, it seems everyone has written off the Giants. I\u2019m not here saying the Giants are going to be a playoff team, or even be a good team, but everything is relative in the betting markets. And I think they are relatively underrated.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">The Giants now have Russell Wilson at quarterback and have added a potential game-changing pass rusher in first-round pick Abdul Carter, but this is largely the same team that lost to Washington by just three and five points in their two meetings last season. I\u2019ve written at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theringer.com\/2025\/08\/27\/nfl\/nfl-futures-division-awards-bets-mvp-race-2025-26-season\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">length<\/a> about my concerns about the Commanders\u2019 age profile, defense, and other regression indicators.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Verdict: Bet Giants +5.5<\/p>\n<p>San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">The Seahawks are yet another home underdog that I\u2019m backing in Week 1 against a division rival. It might seem hard to make the case for Seattle\u2019s offense\u2014the line doesn\u2019t look good on paper, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are gone, and the quarterback change from Geno Smith to Sam Darnold is widely considered a downgrade at the most important position. However, this is partially a bet on new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak making real improvements to Seattle\u2019s system. It\u2019s meaningful that Kubiak was able to scheme around a terrible Saints offensive line early last season Kubiak relied heavily on play-action to help cover for that O-line, which helped buy time for Derek Carr to hit receivers downfield. This is a recipe that could also be successful for Darnold, a quarterback who needs time and wants to throw deep.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">There\u2019s a lot of helium in the market for the 49ers, and a lot of love for them in the futures market due to their easy schedule. Consider me a skeptic. Receiver Jauan Jennings has returned to practice, but the receiver room is thin without Brandon Aiyuk, who is still recovering from a knee injury, and the departed Deebo Samuel. If there\u2019s anyone I trust to slow down a Kyle Shanahan offense, it\u2019s Mike Macdonald and his Seattle defense.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Verdict: Bet Seahawks +2.5\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (-3)<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">The Texans have installed a new offense as coordinator Nick Caley replaced Bobby Slowik, and I think there could be some real growing pains. Without running back Joe Mixon, who is out for at least the first month of the season with a foot injury, and with a bad offensive line, it\u2019s going to be extremely difficult for Houston\u2019s running game to get going. That means quarterback C.J. Stroud will be in a lot of difficult third-down situations against a ferocious Rams pass rush. I could see the Texans offense turning the corner as the season progresses, but not immediately.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Add in that Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has barely played football this summer due to his back issue, and you have a recipe for a game that will be dominated by defense. The Texans are my no. 1 defense entering the 2025 season, and while I think trying to predict the league\u2019s best defense is often a futile task, Houston has the\u00a0 most talented group at all three levels.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">The Rams have been slow starters in each of the last two seasons under Sean McVay. It seems McVay might be willing to sacrifice some early season offensive efficiency and win probability to keep his team healthy and fresh for later in the season. As a result, I bet the under 44.5 in this game.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Verdict: Bet Under 44.5 (-115)<\/p>\n<p>Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Green Bay is one of the most stable teams in the NFL. They retained defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley after the unit took a major step forward in his first year. Compared to the immense turnover on the coaching staff in Detroit, Green Bay has a marginal early-season edge over their NFC North rival. Not only are the Lions replacing both play-calling coordinators, but the retirement of center Frank Ragnow is also a key hole to fill. Detroit has the more established skill position group, but Matt LaFleur is the guy I want holding the video game controller to make the offense go. No disrespect to new Lions offensive coordinator John Morton, but he\u2019s going to have to prove it to me.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">While Jordan Love has been inconsistent at times, the Packers <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theringer.com\/2025\/08\/19\/nfl\/ranking-every-nfl-offense-2025-buffalo-bills-baltimore-ravens-49ers\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">finished<\/a> sixth and fourth, respectively, in offensive efficiency in his two seasons as the starting quarterback.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">The Lions won the first meeting last season after Green Bay struggled in the red zone in a game played in a rainstorm. Detroit won the second matchup on a field goal as time expired. There\u2019s a perception that there was a massive gap between the two teams last year, but DVOA certainly didn\u2019t see it that way:<\/p>\n<p>Detroit&#8217;s and Green Bay&#8217;s DVOAOffensive DVOADefensive DVOADetroit3rd5thGreen Bay4th7th<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">If you\u2019re not sold on Morton as a replacement for Ben Johnson, you could make a convincing case that Green Bay should be rated higher than Detroit on both offense and defense. With the Packers at home, it\u2019s easy to justify laying up to -2.5 on Green Bay.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Verdict: Bet Green Bay -2.5<\/p>\n<p>The Degenerate Special: Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">If you were to list the teams that enter the season with the worst vibes, the Dolphins and Colts would be on top. Miami head coach Mike McDaniel is the betting favorite to be the first coach fired. The Colts picked former Giants bust Daniel Jones to be their starting quarterback over <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theringer.com\/2025\/08\/19\/nfl\/anthony-richardson-indianapolis-colts-daniel-jones-starting-quarterback\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">2023 first-round pick Anthony Richardson<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">The under is tempting here because of how little each quarterback throws downfield, and the strength of both defenses is in the trenches. Both secondaries are dealing with a handful of injuries, but Tua Tagovailoa (who ranked bottom-two in air yards last year) and Jones are hardly the quarterbacks I expect to exploit those absences.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Indianapolis has consistently played fast under head coach Shane Steichen, which scares me when it comes to taking the under. However, there is a chance the Colts offensive line takes a step back after losing two starters in free agency, and that both offenses will struggle to score points. Last year, the Colts\u2019 run game was considerably less effective when Joe Flacco was the quarterback as opposed to Richardson, and it\u2019s still unclear how well they\u2019ll be able to run with Jones, who is far more mobile than Flacco but less talented of a runner than Richardson.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Verdict: Lean under 46.5, but only if you have to<\/p>\n<p>You Won\u2019t See it on RedZone: Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at New York Jets<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">This is a funny game rife with narratives as former Steelers QB Justin Fields faces former Jets QB Aaron Rodgers, but it will be buried in the 1 p.m. ET Sunday slate and probably won\u2019t be appearing on your RedZone much until it\u2019s a one-score game in the fourth quarter\u2014like seemingly every Pittsburgh game has been for the last 10 years.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Every game in Week 1 has a total of at least 42.5 points except this one, which recently moved from 39.5 down to 38.5. With Rodgers taking control of the Pittsburgh offense, the Steelers will almost certainly be playing slower than last season. Rodgers likes to take command at the line of scrimmage pre-snap and use most of the play clock. <a href=\"https:\/\/theringer-nfl.trumedianetworks.com\/football\/teams-offense-stats?f=%7B%22fsyr%22%3A%5B%222024%22%2C%222024%22%5D%2C%22fgt%22%3A%5B%22regular%22%5D%2C%22ffqb%22%3A%7B%22values%22%3A%5B%5D%2C%22selectedPreset%22%3A%22none%22%7D%7D&amp;pc=%7B%22fot%22%3A%22no%22%2C%22ftco%22%3A%5B%5D%2C%22ftc%22%3A%5B%22total%22%2C%22average%22%5D%2C%22fsv%22%3A%22stats%22%2C%22fgb%22%3A%22totals%22%2C%22ftt%22%3A%22standard%22%7D&amp;t=%7B%22orderBy%22%3A%7B%22orderCols%22%3A%22AvgPlayClock%22%2C%22sortOrder%22%3A%22ASC%22%7D%2C%22customReport%22%3A%7B%22selectedReportName%22%3A%22Copy%20of%20Offensive%20Plays2%22%2C%22selectedReportId%22%3A1446%7D%7D\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">His offenses have been the slowest in the NFL<\/a> every season he\u2019s played since 2019.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">The Steelers have a considerable coaching and special-teams edge on paper. For that reason alone, I\u2019d lean toward betting them in Week 1.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Verdict: Lean Steelers at -2.5 or better, but you can probably wait to bet until they\u2019re behind.<\/p>\n<p>The Week 1 Overreaction Classic: Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Chicago Bears<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">I\u2019ve circled this game as the one where the public is most likely to overreact to the result. If the Vikings win a divisional road game in J.J. McCarthy\u2019s NFL debut and he plays well, it could dramatically change the outlook on Minnesota in the eyes of the oddsmakers and pundits. On the other side, Chicago is a trendy pick to be 2025\u2019s\u00a0 \u201cmost improved\u201d team with the addition of Ben Johnson and a rebuilt offensive line in year two of Caleb Williams, and a strong Week 1 performance against a talented Vikings team would be validation for the Bears\u2019 process. .\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">With so much uncertainty around these offenses, let\u2019s focus more on what we do know about these two teams: good defense. Dennis Allen wasn\u2019t successful as a head coach in New Orleans, but his defenses were consistently well above average. Since 2015, when Allen became defensive coordinator, the Saints defense ranked third in EPA against the run and 10th in total defensive EPA.\u00a0 Brian Flores\u2019s Minnesota defenses have feasted on inexperienced quarterbacks for years, and his 2025 unit might be the most talented group he\u2019s had in his three seasons with the Vikings.\u00a0 This will be a huge test for Williams and Johnson. All signs point toward a low-scoring slugfest.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Verdict: Bet Under 44.5<\/p>\n<p>Dark Horse Battle: Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-2.5)<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">This is a quietly important game for AFC playoff leverage. Whoever wins this gets to live up to the preseason claim that they are in fact a true dark horse wild-card contender. No one expects these two teams to be able to compete at the top of the AFC, but outside of the Big Three of Baltimore, Kansas City, and Buffalo, the conference is pretty wide open. This game has an intriguing coaching matchup, with Pete Carroll and Mike Vrabel returning to lead new teams after a year away from coaching. With these two defensive-minded head coaches, typically I would count on a low-scoring, hard-nosed game.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">However, the Patriots went over the total in nine of the 12 games that Drake Maye started last season. Like new Raiders QB Geno Smith, Maye wasn\u2019t afraid to push the ball downfield. Smith had issues in the red zone last season in Seattle, but he has a better offensive line and offensive system in Las Vegas. With Maye also having a better offensive infrastructure in year two, with new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels,\u00a0 this is a sneaky over game for me. I\u2019d need +3 to bet the Raiders to cover, but could see the\u00a0 total going over.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Verdict: Bet Over 43.5, lean Raiders<\/p>\n<p>The Favorite You Want to Bet but Shouldn\u2019t: Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) at New Orleans Saints\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">It\u2019s impossible to justify the Cardinals being a more than a 6-point road favorite against anyone, even the lowly Saints, in Week 1. The Cardinals were an average team last year. Betting spreads are usually derived by taking the market power rating for both teams, then adjusting for home field, rest, etc. If we assume the Cardinals are around a zero (average team), then you\u2019d have to think the Saints are roughly eight points worse than an average team (once adjusting for home field advantage). That is a massive assumption for any NFL team in Week 1.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">The Saints joined the Browns as the bad teams to pile on in the preseason. But the New Orleans roster isn\u2019t terrible on paper. That said, I don\u2019t want any part of the Spencer Rattler experience. He was 46th out of 47 quarterbacks in EPA + CPOE composite, ahead of only Dorian Thompson-Robinson last year. This game is the easiest pass on the board.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Verdict: Pass<\/p>\n<p>Defense Might Be Optional: Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">This game features the two worst defenses in the NFL from last year. The scary part is that I\u2019m not sure how much either defense will be better this year, even with Carolina\u2019s standout defensive tackle Derrick Brown returning from injury. Jacksonville made a much-needed scheme change and switched coordinators, but the roster still is lacking in talent.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">This is a make-or-break year for the quarterbacks in this game. And if either Trevor Lawrence or Bryce Young (or both!) has a bad game, it would be a major red flag. I\u2019ll be staying away from a side or total in this matchup.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Verdict: Pass<\/p>\n<p>Your Survivor Pool Pick Is in Danger: Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-7.5)<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">If you participate in survivor pools, you probably remember last September\u2019s carnage, after a slew of massive underdogs pulled off upsets in the first four weeks of the season. The Broncos are a popular pick in survivor pools this year because of this big line and plenty of preseason hype surrounding the team.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">I\u2019m higher on the Titans and lower on the Broncos than the market entering the season, but I\u2019m not too keen to bet on them here. Denver is a dominant home team in the first two weeks because of the altitude advantage, too. Historically, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.statmuse.com\/nfl\/ask\/broncos-home-record-first-two-weeks\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Broncos<\/a> are 56-15-2 at home in the first two weeks of the season. Tennessee\u2019s Cam Ward is still a rookie quarterback making his first start on the road, and he\u2019s doing so against an aggressive defense that excelled last year. Even Jayden Daniels and C.J. Stroud, who went on to have excellent rookie seasons, got blown out in Week 1.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">The Broncos were excellent when they were favorites last year because their defense feasted on bad offenses, and they have a methodical and risk-averse offense. Their struggles came when they played elite competition or had to play from behind. I don\u2019t see that being a huge issue here.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Verdict: Pass<\/p>\n<p>Fun to Watch, Not to Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">After watching Ryan Grubb\u2019s performance as an NFL offensive coordinator for the Seahawks last season, how Kalen DeBoer is doing as head coach at Alabama, and Ja\u2019Lynn Polk\u2019s underwhelming career so far as a Patriots backup wide receiver, I\u2019m starting to wonder if maybe we\u2019re all underrating Michael Penix Jr. The former University of Washington quarterback showed impressive flashes as a rookie in the final three games of last season, but it\u2019s also important to consider the context of the opponents. He faced the Giants, Commanders, and Panthers, who were three of the eight worst defenses in the league. In Week 1, he faces a Bucs defense that isn\u2019t the \u201985 Bears, but will be a considerably more difficult challenge.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">The Bucs offense has injury issues, as they\u2019ll be without star tackle Tristan Wirfs and receivers Jalen McMillan and Chris Godwin in this game. That puts a lot of pressure on rookie wideout Emeka Egbuka to handle a heavy load as the WR2 behind Mike Evans. The spread has been stuck on Tampa -2.5 all summer, but the total has bounced around. It\u2019s been as high as 48.5 and as low as 46. This could be a sneaky entertaining 1 p.m. ET game, especially if Penix is throwing deep a lot, but there are better games to bet on.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Verdict: Pass<\/p>\n<p>The AFC Runners-Up Invitational: Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">I saved the best game of the Week 1 slate for last. The Bills and Ravens played in the divisional round in January and the line was basically a pick\u2019em. So what\u2019s changed since then? Not much.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Buffalo retooled its defense to try to improve its down-to-down consistency after the Bills became too reliant on generating turnovers. If you remove the plays in which they forced turnovers last year, the Bills were 28th in EPA allowed. It was an opportunistic defense, but that\u2019s hard to sustain year over year and is not a formula for beating elite teams. Sean McDermott gives the defense a high floor and the Bills are an above-average defense by DVOA almost every season, but his defenses haven\u2019t been able to stay healthy enough to truly match up against elite offenses.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">The Ravens will have Zay Flowers and backup scatback Keaton Mitchell healthy after both missed the playoff game. Baltimore outplayed Buffalo on a play-to-play basis both times these teams met last season. The difference between the Ravens\u2019 win in the regular season and the playoff loss was costly turnovers (stop me if you\u2019ve heard that before) and miscues. I bet Buffalo in January and felt a little lucky to get that one across the line. This time, I think Baltimore gets revenge for the playoffs.<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Verdict: Bet Ravens +1.5\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Bets I\u2019ve made for Week 1 and what the lines were when I got them:<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Favorite five for The Ringer 107:\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Seahawks +2.5Browns +5.5Giants +6.5Packers -2.5Texans\/Rams u44.5<\/p>\n<p data-sentry-element=\"Text\" data-sentry-component=\"Component\" data-sentry-source-file=\"paragraph.tsx\" class=\"motion-safe:ui-transition-colors ui-text-black motion-safe:transition-colors\">Other bets:<\/p>\n<p>Cowboys +8.5Ravens +1.5Vikings\/Bears u43.5Raiders\/Patriots o43.5<a data-sentry-element=\"Link\" data-sentry-source-file=\"creator.tsx\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theringer.com\/creator\/anthony-dabbundo\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img alt=\"\" data-sentry-element=\"Image\" data-sentry-source-file=\"creator.tsx\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"fill\" class=\"ui-object-cover ui-shadow-expressive-dark-medium ui-rounded-full ui-outline ui-outline-1 ui-outline-black ui-grayscale hover:ui-brightness-80 motion-safe:ui-transition-all\" style=\"position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;object-position:50% 50%;color:transparent\"   src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/1756904889_850_image\"\/><\/a><a data-sentry-element=\"Link\" data-sentry-source-file=\"creator.tsx\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theringer.com\/creator\/anthony-dabbundo\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><\/p>\n<p>Anthony Dabbundo<\/p>\n<p><\/a>Anthony Dabbundo is a sports betting writer and podcast host featured on The Ringer Gambling Show, mostly concentrating on the NFL and soccer (he\u2019s a tortured Spurs supporter). Plus, he\u2019s a massive Phillies fan and can be heard talking baseball on The Ringer\u2019s Philly Special. Also: Go Orange.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"NFLNFLFavorites dominated last season. Will that trend continue as the new season kicks off?Getty Images\/Ringer illustrationBy Anthony DabbundoSept.&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":116764,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[436],"tags":[49,48,514,82],"class_list":["post-116763","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-nfl","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116763","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=116763"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116763\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/116764"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=116763"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=116763"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=116763"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}