{"id":118061,"date":"2025-09-04T00:51:07","date_gmt":"2025-09-04T00:51:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/118061\/"},"modified":"2025-09-04T00:51:07","modified_gmt":"2025-09-04T00:51:07","slug":"poll-can-the-astros-hold-on-to-win-the-al-west","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/118061\/","title":{"rendered":"Poll: Can The Astros Hold On To Win The AL West?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Fangraphs gives each current division leader at least a 60% chance of maintaining that lead through the end of the regular season, per their latest playoff odds<\/a>. Not all of those chances are equal, however, and two division leaders are far less likely to hold onto their title than the rest.<\/p>\n

One is the Blue Jays, who around 45% of MLBTR readers view as likely to hold onto the division as of yesterday\u2019s poll<\/a>. The other is the Astros, who took control of the division off the back of a dominant 19-7 month of June but since then have struggled to keep pace. They\u2019re 26-29 since the start of July and 16-21 since July 24. Houston\u2019s managed to fend off the Mariners and Rangers in the AL West until now, however, and actually has a larger lead (three games) over Seattle now than they did in mid-August, when they were briefly tied for the division lead at one point.<\/p>\n

That rebound in recent weeks has helped them stay afloat, but there\u2019s still cause for concern. What was once a dominant front two in the rotation has now dropped to one; while Hunter Brown<\/a> is still excelling amid a campaign that\u2019s likely to earn him legitimate consideration for the Cy Young award, Framber Valdez<\/a> is struggling badly of late with an ERA north of 6.00 since the start of August. The bullpen took a major hit when Josh Hader<\/a> was sidelined by a sprained shoulder, and the lineup simply isn\u2019t scoring enough runs. The Astros are 29th in the majors since the start of August when it comes to runs scored, and 21st since the start of July. Cam Smith<\/a> hasn\u2019t sustained his strong start to the year, Isaac Paredes<\/a> and Jake Meyers<\/a> are on the injured list, and Jeremy Pena<\/a> is no longer hitting like a potential MVP candidate.<\/p>\n

All of those flaws in the roster have left Houston vulnerable, and their +14 run differential is not just lower than those of the Mariners and Rangers, it\u2019s the lowest of any team currently in playoff position. With six games against Texas and three more against Seattle still on the schedule for September, they\u2019ll need to duke it out with those teams outright in order to hold onto the division. That provides an opportunity for those clubs to make up a lot of ground in a relatively short amount of time. And with the toughest strength of schedule remaining in the division, Houston can\u2019t necessarily bank on cleaning up against weaker teams in their other games.<\/p>\n

All of that may make it seem as though the Astros have their work cut out for them if they want to hold onto their lead in the AL West. While that could certainly be true, it\u2019s not as if they don\u2019t also have significant advantages working in their favor. For one thing, much of that rough injury luck has been balanced out by other players returning. Yordan Alvarez<\/a> and Cristian Javier<\/a>, in particular, figure to be impactful pieces for Houston down the stretch. And while players like Smith and Pena have cooled off to varying degrees, Jose Altuve<\/a> and Christian Walker<\/a> have turned back the clock in the second half after tough starts to the season. Carlos Correa<\/a> is already hitting better now that he\u2019s back in Houston than he had been in Minnesota, and perhaps a veteran core of Altuve, Walker, Correa, and Alvarez will be able to turn things around for the offense over the season\u2019s final month.<\/p>\n

The other thing working in Houston\u2019s favor is the reality that Seattle and Texas aren\u2019t exactly behemoths, either. While the Mariners lineup has put up respectable numbers led by Cal Raleigh<\/a>, Julio Rodriguez<\/a>, and Randy Arozarena<\/a>, their vaunted starting rotation has looked much more vulnerable this season than in previous years. They\u2019ll get help from a flimsy schedule that pits them against the likes of St. Louis, Colorado, and Atlanta over the season\u2019s final weeks, but without George Kirby<\/a> and Logan Gilbert<\/a> posting better numbers than their league-average season figures, that might not be enough. As for the Rangers, injuries to Nathan Eovaldi<\/a>, Marcus Semien<\/a>, and Corey Seager<\/a> have dismantled the team\u2019s veteran core for the foreseeable future. The losses of Semien and Seager, in particular, are forcing them to rely on a far less reliable group of position players for the stretch run as they look to take advantage of their aforementioned six games against the Astros this month.<\/p>\n

How do MLBTR readers view Houston\u2019s odds of making it to October with the AL West crown in hand? Will their veteran core be able to score enough runs going forward, or will the Mariners or perhaps even the Rangers sneak in to take over? Have your say in the poll below:<\/p>\n

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