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Tim Smith \/ Brandon Sun files<\/p>\n
Building natural gas power plants, such as the Manitoba Hydro generating station in Brandon, isn\u2019t a move forward \u2014 it\u2019s looking towards the past, Scott Forbes writes.<\/p>\n
These arguments reflect a deliberate ignorance of a rapidly changing world. Renewables, either this year or next, will eclipse coal as the globe\u2019s biggest energy source. The meteoric rise of renewables this century has surpassed all projections, a big reason being that wind and (especially) solar are now the cheapest energy on the planet.<\/p>\n
Given the clear science on the unfolding climate disaster, expanding fossil fuel production is immoral besides being economically preposterous. Yes, we\u2019ll use some fossil fuels well into the future, but that\u2019s a very different matter than ever increasing production by pumping\/digging more oil, gas and coal when cheaper, cleaner alternatives already exist. Our current supply of fossil fuels will meet future, falling demands, OPEC\u2019s rose-coloured projections notwithstanding.<\/p>\n
The economic disruption that lies in the near future is staggering. Canada\u2019s foremost renewable energy economist, Mark Jaccard of Simon Fraser University, argues that the most likely fate of fossil-fuel-dependent jurisdictions is sudden economic decline.<\/p>\n
Alberta, for example, now requires $75 a barrel oil (WTI) to balance their budget: the price currently hovers in the low to mid $60s. The global glut of oil by the end of this decade will collapse oil prices, taking with it the Alberta and Saskatchewan economies.<\/p>\n
A familiar lament about wind and solar is \u201cwhat happens when the wind doesn\u2019t blow and the sun doesn\u2019t shine? We must have fossil fuels because renewables are unreliable.\u201d<\/p>\n
Nonsense.<\/p>\n
First, the obvious answer is energy storage, which takes many forms, but I\u2019ll focus here on industrial-scale batteries. Their day has arrived. Grid-scale batteries are being rolled out rapidly across the globe, from Australia to California, Chile, China, Germany, Great Britain, Ireland, Nova Scotia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Texas, and the Yukon. Renewables with storage now hold the economic edge over fossil fuels and that advantage will only grow as battery technology improves and prices plummet even further.<\/p>\n
Second, that familiar whine assumes we must continue to operate exactly as we do now. With cheap, renewable energy, the big winners will be industries that scale production to match energy availability and price, ramping up on long summer days, and back down during winter. January vacations anyone?<\/p>\n
But backward-looking critics will argue that no industry could possibly run under that model. Really? Maybe you should ask Prairie farmers.<\/p>\n
On these pages, solar energy was recently denounced as unsuitable for Manitoba\u2019s future energy needs. Again, this argument fails to go where the puck is going.<\/p>\n
Solar is well matched for rising summer demands. More EVs will draw more power from our electric grid.<\/p>\n
When do people drive most? Summer.<\/p>\n
And with rising global temperatures, the need for cooling during our longer, hotter summers will also rise. Again, solar is well matched to this and can be built out cheaply and quickly, unlike hydro or nuclear. And yes, I know peak electricity demand occurs during winter, but that doesn\u2019t negate an obvious role for solar.<\/p>\n
Nuclear has become a stalking horse for the fossil fuel industry, with the long-held promise of small modular nuclear reactors to provide bountiful energy. And while we wait for their arrival, which is just around the corner they say, we\u2019ll use fossil fuels.<\/p>\n
Again, nonsense.<\/p>\n
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